#Ukraine_Moldova_Georgia_EU: I read the opinion of the EU Commission on the candidate for membership. Here are some conclusions: 1) The data relied upon by the Commission comes primarily from the questionnaires completed in April and May by the three applicant counties.⤵️
Given the socio-economic difficulties that the three countries are going through, it is difficult to understand why the Commission praises so confidently the macro-financial stability (which is actually very unstable because of the Russian aggression etc.);⤵️
2) The Commission speaks of good foundations for reforms (which is partly true). Depending on the sector and the country, some reforms started some time ago (time-tested) or recently (the case of Moldova or Georgia). So, the long-term dynamics of the reforms is difficult to⤵️
predict given the Russian aggression, but the Commission bets on the political will in the three states. 3) Last but not least, to me, it looks that the Commission signals the potential candidate status for the three countries in two different ways. ⤵️
In the case of Ukraine and Moldova, the status of potential candidates is soft, with certain steps to be taken by both countries, but rather as additional conditions, not as a precondition. The latter is, on the other hand, requested for Georgia. Check this out👇
Read more about the benefits of the candidacy, on the one hand, and the non-candidacy scenario, in my today’s piece 👇
It is confusing when the EU publishes the opinions in the EU candidature application of Ukraine, Moldova & Georgia using, together with Ukraine & Romania, the Russian language. Perhaps it is worth making an effort & using Georgian, treating all 3 countries on an equal footing?

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More from @DionisCenusa

Jun 17
#Moldova: Russian Foreign Ministry Lavrov hinted that Moldova could become the "second Ukraine" when commenting on the relationship with the EU. On the one hand, he stressed that the Moldovan government would beg the EU for financial help by invoking geopolitical pressure from⤵️
Russia. Lavrov is wrong: the EU is ready to help and Chisinau is taking advantage of this opportunity (showing a foreign policy that seems more efficient than the internal one). On the other hand, Lavrov recalls that the ruling Moldovan party is asking for the postponement of⤵️
gas payments to Russia/Gazprom. In fact, this is pretty correct, but the Moldovan side has no choice given the high price of gas (caused by Russian manipulations in the gas market) and the scarce budget posibilities (already "subsidized" by the EU).⤵️
Read 6 tweets
Jun 15
#Ukraine: During his trip to Romania, Macron made another rather problematic statement about the imminent need for negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow. His suggestion is that such negotiations will involve the EU. Some experts speak of an eventual "Minsk III".⤵️
From a historical perspective, any pressure on Ukraine to agree to a deal will look more like a hybrid of the Ialta agreement to reorganize Europe and Germany (1945) reminiscent of the Anschluss (1938) when Nazi Germany annexed Austria (not a "Minsk III"). This comparison is ⤵️
due to Russia's intransigence in not giving up the recently occupied Ukrainian territories set to be annexed to Russia, as well as the determination to decide on the organization of Ukraine as a state. Consequently, the emergence of the Ialta-Anschluss deal must be prevented ⤵️
Read 5 tweets
Jun 14
#Russia: The president of the state-owned Rosstech Chemezov asked to keep a "cool head" regarding the reaction to the sanctions. He rejected the idea of ​​total import substitution because it is economically unreasonable and practically impossible. Instead, he sees the⤵️
solution in a combination of parallel import, import diversification, and where possible use localization and import substitution. He referred to KAMAZ, the target of sanctions almost immediately after the start of Russian aggression against Ukraine. ⤵️
Chemezov argued that the way KAMAZ adapted is a positive example to replicate. The company switched to locally produced components (220 of 250) within a month. The remaining components were found from alternative producers. Moscow struggles to find the right balance to absorb⤵️
Read 4 tweets
Jun 9
#Russia_EU_Africa: The EU has apparently lost the information battle (hopefully not the war) with Russia in Africa. Senegalese President Sall (who also chairs the African Union) pointed out that due to sanctions on Russia, the African continent would be at risk of famine.⤵️
In his opinion, first of all, the de-Swift-ing of Russian banks would affect payments to Russia by African banks. Second, he stated that the sanctions have targeted Russian businessmen who are said to be involved in the fertilizer and crop trade with Africa.⤵️
Sall wants solutions with the EU before the rainy season to avoid food shortages and the destabilization of the African continent. This seems like a veiled warning from the EU about the possible humanitarian crisis caused by famine and the subsequent migratory flow from⤵️
Read 4 tweets
Jun 9
#Modova_Ukraine_EU: The tariff quotas for 7 agrifood goods from Moldova (plums, grapes, apples, tomatoes, garlic, cherries and grape juice) will be removed temporarily in the light of the regional transport/transit and market hardships provoked by the Russian war.⤵️
The potential benefits for the Moldovan exporters could rise to up to 100 million euros. It is a good step forward, but the measure doesn’t cover other goods and is not anyhow comparable to what was offered to Ukraine. The latter is in need of large support as it fights⤵️
against the ongoing Russian invasion/war. So far, the EU has removed the tariffs on Ukraine-origin goods (industrial goods under tariff phasing put, agrifood under entry-price and quotas regimes) until May 2023 (for now).⤵️
Read 4 tweets
May 18
#Moldova: I have read some recent comments about the situation in Moldova in the light of the Russian aggression against Ukraine. I will underline some common fallacies, which are detrimental to understanding the true roots of the problems in Moldova:⤵️
1) There are two issues where Russia has a say and can push the buttons to worsen the situation, if necessary - energy and the Transnistrian conflict. 2) Energy dependence of Moldova on Russian is mainly on gas. Now, this issue depends on the global market and⤵️
the contract signed by the current pro-EU government, with all the implications and risks (criticized by the opposition and even by former members of the government); 3) The Transnistrian regime is another "black box" that the government has no idea how to handle,⤵️
Read 12 tweets

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