Thread by @TheNorwegianNFT

1/ How to Invest in Bear Markets 📉💰

And why I just got a #NewProfilePic 🧵

2/ Here’s the TL;DR:

- Blue chips become increasingly attractive

- Bear markets make people reassess their investment strategy

- Risk aversion increases

- The shift to fundamentals

📉📈 See tweet 9-12 for some interesting floor statistics

3/ Like most of us, I first discovered #NFTs in the «post-BAYC era».

And despite still being early in the grand scheme of things (August 2021), I remember feeling discouraged seeing blue-chip projects trading at, what was to me, unobtainable levels.

4/ Having experience from TradFi, contemporary art, watches etc, I was no stranger to investing — but I was a stranger to spending $10-100k on a JPEG.

5/ But after engaging and digging more into the space, it quickly became evident that owning these said JPEGs was not just about the picture per se, but about communities, crypto and digital arts history, return on investment, online flexing, and more.

6/ Like many others in this space, my dream was to aquire one of these blue chips – namely CryptoPunks and Bored Apes.

However, after seeing prices sky-rocketing last fall, I eventually found solace in knowing I’d never be able to afford one anyway…

7/ ENTER: Bear Markets 🐻

This is where things change.

This is where the game is redistributed, and opportunities arise for those with liquidity.

Or for those that knows what to look for.

8/ Despite ETH falling 80% ($4800-$960), most projects’ floor prices have fallen too.

30 days ago, ETH was $2,000. One would think today’s «blue chip projects» would increase its ETH floor price, or at the very least maintain it (which would STILL equal a -50% loss)

9/ Think again…

The last 30 days 👇*

📉 BAYC is down from 96-87E
(-57% total loss)

📉 Mutants are down from 19.3-16.5E (-59%)

📉 Moonbirds are down from 26.4-17.9E (-67%)

📉 Doodles 13.45-10.8E (-61%)

10/

📉 Azuki down from 12.9-9.4E (-65%)

📉 CloneX down from 13.6-9.18E (-68%)

📉 World of Women down from 4.5-4.2E (-55%)

📉 Veefriends down from 7.88-7.4E (-55%)

📉 Otherside down from 3.15-2.17E (-69%)

11/ Now, to the projects that manages to INCREASE their floor price:

📈 CryptoPunks UP from 52-55.5E (total loss -49%)

📈 @v1punks UP from 4.7-5.5E (total loss -44%)

📈 Damien Hirst - The Currency UP from 4.3-8E (total loss only 10% ❗️)

12/ I was not able to not find ANY blue chip (highly sought after) PFP project other than CryptoPunks/V1 Punks.

* All numbers are from NFTpricefloor.com (they aggregate data from multiple MPs).

* Prices may have changed from the time of writing to the time of posting.

13/ Lessons learned 👇

What this tells me (you are free to draw your own conclusion), is that history is one of the strongest fundamentals in NFTs.

And that hype is one of the worst.

14/ What this tells me is that newer «top-tier projects» like Moonbirds, despite having millions upon millions in VC-like funding, has low consumer/customer confidence.

New projects may rise quickly (grrgrggglll goblin sounds), but they sure drop quickly too.

15/ What this tells me, is that NFTs tends to fall when ETH falls — resulting in a double hit. Even when ETH is halved (!).

16/ What this tells me, is that investors become increasingly risk averse in bear markets – even after a 60-70% drop.

And that many «seek refuge» in NFT projects with strong fundamentals.

17/ Don’t get me wrong, I would love an ape one day. But what exactly are the fundamentals for apes, mutants and land assets to appreciate, except for hype-creation from YugaLabs and relying on constant engagement from the community?

18/ Hype dies. Engagement varies. History is forever.

That is why I believe investors in NFTs turn to the «safest» bet of them all — the pioneer of the digital avatar/PFP revolution.

The project that changed NFTs entirely.

19/ And with the same reasoning – that history, provenance and fundamentals will matter the most at the end – I turned to CryptoPunks V1.

@v1punks

20/ Partly because I couldn’t afford the V2, but mostly because I believe more in history — and being the first — and less in the importance of brands.

Even Yuga.

Being the original punk collection - the pioneers - the meme potential is huge.

This was the best I could do.

Dear @VirtualAlaska_ please join the V1 fam.

With your memes, a post-correction repricing, and the history, this will become a 100E project 🤝