Mick Ryan, AM Profile picture
Jun 20, 2022 11 tweets 7 min read Read on X
An important #leadership characteristic demonstrated by @ZelenskyyUa has been his willingness to take personal risk to visit soldiers in the field, and get his own sense of how the war is progressing. 1/11 🧵
2/ These visits have a range of purposes. First, it allows @ZelenskyyUa to get a feel for the morale and capability of his military in the field. You can read reports all day, but there is no substitute for walking the ground with leaders at the tip of the spear.
3/ A second purpose is that it allows him to ask questions. This is an important function of a national political leader in their interaction with military commanders. Even the best staff cannot anticipate all the questions their leaders might have.
4/ A third reason for the field visits by @ZelenskyyUa is to engage with the most junior soldiers in the field, to inspire them, recognise their sacrifice and to reiterate the purpose of their service. Purpose is the most important thing a leader can provide.
5/ Soldiers react differently to their President or Prime Minister when at war or deployed on operations. Visits like this have profound impacts on morale.
6/ Another purpose of these visits is for @ZelenskyyUa to show that he has trust in his Army. He shows he is comfortable in placing his life in the hands of his military - it is an important and strategic trust-building exercise between politicians and military leaders.
7/ Throughout the #Ukraine war, he has set the strategic direction for his nation while allowing the high command to get on with the implementation of national defence. But these visits, and regular briefings, provide all-important feedback in the civ-mil relationship.
8/ Fifth, this is an important way that @ZelenskyyUa differentiates himself from his adversary. It is unlikely that Putin will ever visit the poorly fed and led - but well-armed - Russian troops in #Ukraine.
9/ And, it is an important way for Ukrainian citizens to engage with their President - and see him as a human who is also affected by this war and its impact on the people of #Ukraine.
10/ Finally, these visits draw attention from audiences external to #Ukraine as part of their global influence campaign. In demonstrating that he is not a ‘bunker leader’, @ZelenskyyUa shows us all that he is the leader of a nation worth supporting in the long term. End.
11/ Thank you to the following whose images were used in this thread: cnn.com, businessinsider.com and @DefenceU | #Ukraine @AmbVasyl

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More from @WarintheFuture

May 12
Putin replaces #Shoigu. Putin calls on new Russian defence minister to lead 'innovation'. This says a lot about the transformation in the decade before 2022 that occurred (or was supposed to occur) under #Shoigu. 1/9 🧵
edition.cnn.com/2024/05/12/eur…
2/ The decade of reforms under Gerasimov and #Shoigu before 2022 did not posture the Russians optimally for the initial phase of their large scale invasion of #Ukraine.
3/ However after much learning in the first year of the war, the Russians were able to begin larger-scale #adaptation of their force. Mobilisation of people and industry are two key examples. My recent piece here explores how Russia has pulled ahead in strategic adaptation. foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/russia…
Read 9 tweets
Apr 13
Iran is attacking #Israel directly. Normally content with employing proxies to do its dirty work for it, Iran is currenlty launching what appears to be a multi-wave aerial attack with drones and missiles. What might this mean? 1/10
2/ The U.S. has stated that it will defend Israel, and has the military assets in the region to contribute to this mission. We also might see a rapid airlift of air defence missiles and other materiel from the U.S. to Israel.
3/ Besides direct attacks from Iran, the Iranians may also call on its proxies to launch concurrent attacks to overwhelm Israeli sensors, C2 and decision making.
Read 10 tweets
Apr 11
One of my big takeaways from my latest #Ukraine visit is the need to change strategy. Current war strategy is focussed on 'defending Ukraine'. This is now a strategy for defeat and must evolve. 1/10 🧵🇺🇦
lowyinstitute.org/the-interprete…
Image
2/ It is clear that the strategy of #Ukraine and its partners must evolve to 'defeat Russia in Ukraine'. This is hardly a new insight (I have published on this topic in Foreign Affairs). But the grim situation at present demands an urgent shift in strategy, and a revised Ukrainian theory of victory.
3/ Russia has recovered psychologically from the shock of its early military failures. The Russian president and his government possess a renewed sense of optimism about the trajectory of Russian operations.
Read 10 tweets
Mar 30
The increasing use of drone v drone warfare in #Ukraine has been a trend long in development. Earlier, we have seen aerial drones take out other aerial drones, as well as recover downed enemy drones. 1/15 🧵🇺🇦
2/ With the increasing deployment of uncrewed ground combat vehicles, there will be more and UAV v UGV combat similar to that in the video as well as UGV v UGV. At this point in their development, however, UGV remain slow and vulnerable to attack by humans and UAV.
3/ But, the battlefield adaptation cycle will slowly change this. Not only will individual UGV increasingly have lower visual and electronic signatures, they will be used in larger numbers. The pace of change in the relevant technologies makes this almost inevitable.
Read 15 tweets
Mar 24
Ukraine reinforces that Crimea is still on the agenda, and that they retain an objective of making the presence of the Russian military there untenable. But this is part of a wider, adaptive strategic strike program. 1/7 🧵
2/ This is also another illustration of the sophisticated collection, analysis, planning and execution capabilities of Ukraine’s evolving strategic strike system, which uses both Western and indigenous missiles and drones.
3/ The Crimea strike campaign, along with the degradation of Russian oil refining capacity, appear to remain the two highest priorities for the maturing Ukrainian strategic strike complex.
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Mar 19
The Putin re-election campaign is now complete. What might this mean for Russian military #strategy as we shift into the northern spring and summer? 1/22 🧵🇺🇦
kyivindependent.com/western-leader…
2/ Clearly, the main effort will remain its campaign to subjugate Ukraine by degrading and destroying its tactical forces, conducting strike operations against operational, strategic and civilian targets, and its ongoing diplomatic and strategic influence operations.
3/ For several months, the Russians have been conducting tactical actions to advance in the east and south of #Ukraine. Some are opportunistic, taking advantage of Ukrainian force / arty shortfalls and terrain.
Read 22 tweets

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