#EU_Russia: This week's tensions between theo-geopolitical players will unfold around three main themes: 1) The EU Council's decision on the EU candidacy of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia will make Moscow uncomfortable, even if it denies it. Meanwhile, Russia announced new⤵️
attacks on Ukraine's Lugansk region to occupy Severodonetsk and Lysichansk, facing counterattacks from Ukraine. Russia's intensified military action could also be used to incentivize the Eurosceptics to lower the candidacy offer to Ukraine. This may also have a negative⤵️
indirect effect on Moldova and Georgia. It is worth observing whether the results of the French parliamentary elections can mark the candidacy prospects of Eastern Europeans. 2) Lithuania could feel increased and new pressure from Russia to implement sanctions on the transit⤵️
of certain goods between Russia and its exclave Kaliningrad. NATO membership represents the essential security guarantee for Vilnius, not so much the EU. 3) Europe's energy crisis will be further weaponized by Russia by keeping gas flows as low as possible.⤵️
The EU might have the idea of capping the price of gas, but such an intervention would require sufficient stored gas and available diversification routes, neither of which is currently available to the EU in sufficient quantity. In general, the EU will require more⤵️
solidarity in the energy, transatlantic cooperation on Ukraine’s defense capacity and strategic thinking on candidacy prospects for Ukraine-Moldova-Georgia.
https://twitter.com/EESC_LT/status/1537739819736092672
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