#Ukraine_Moldova_Georgia: The highest public support for EU membership is found in Ukraine and Georgia (>80%). In the former, the population has put EU integration at the heart of the defense war against Russian aggression. All interested parties are united around the central⤵️
authorities of Kyiv. Georgia has witnessed the largest demonstration in the last decade, which brought together 160,000 people, without any monopoly over the citizens’ mobilization by political parties (of which the majority face public mistrust, both in the ruling party⤵️
and in the opposition). Compared to the previous two, Moldova is in a different position: public simpathy for EU membership is below 60% and its public demonstration is heavily suppressed by the low popularity of the pro-EU government (around 25 % or half of support for the EU)⤵️
Unlike the Georgian government (despised for its collusion with the oligarchs), the Moldovan one is seen as ineffective or too weak to handle amounting socio-economic problems. All three countries are willing to join the Western Balkans and Turkey in the candidate states room.

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More from @DionisCenusa

Jun 20
#EU_Russia: Borrell's statements about Lithuania's application of the sanctions regime sound disjointed and unconvincing in terms of preventing Russian pressure on Vilnius. He insists that Lithuania is applying EU sanctions (which is correct). They restrict the transport⤵️
to/from Kaliningrad of a very specific category of goods in transit through Lithuania. Borrell admitted that Vilnius has guidelines provided by the Commission, after consultations. After saying that, he suggests double-checking if the correct guidelines were given to Lithuania.⤵️
In addition, the head of EU diplomacy announced that he will double check the compatibility between sanctions and the law (probably hinting at the 2002 transit agreement with Russia). First, it is imperative that the EU see if there is any discrepancy between sanctions⤵️
Read 5 tweets
Jun 20
#Georgia: Peaceful pro-EU rally takes place in Tbilisi. The ordinary citizens are the main protagonists, not the political parties. This is one of the largest manifestations of pro-EU sentiments of Georgians in years in an attempt to draw the attention of Brussels.
My Georgian friends tell me that people are up for two things: the EU candidacy and early parliamentary elections.
By @SalomeUgr
Read 4 tweets
Jun 20
#EU_Russia: This week's tensions between theo-geopolitical players will unfold around three main themes: 1) The EU Council's decision on the EU candidacy of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia will make Moscow uncomfortable, even if it denies it. Meanwhile, Russia announced new⤵️
attacks on Ukraine's Lugansk region to occupy Severodonetsk and Lysichansk, facing counterattacks from Ukraine. Russia's intensified military action could also be used to incentivize the Eurosceptics to lower the candidacy offer to Ukraine. This may also have a negative⤵️
indirect effect on Moldova and Georgia. It is worth observing whether the results of the French parliamentary elections can mark the candidacy prospects of Eastern Europeans. 2) Lithuania could feel increased and new pressure from Russia to implement sanctions on the transit⤵️
Read 6 tweets
Jun 19
#Moldova: Today, pro-LGBT and human right activists (more than one hundred people) are organizing a demonstration on a designated route. The number of police officers protecting them appears to be higher than in previous years. Against them are poised to protest the ⤵️
representatives of the Russian Orthodox Church and conservative groups. The latter has the indirect support of the mayor of the country's capital, Ceban, who previously suggested that the LGBT demonstration be banned. At the same time, today, the installation of the stage for ⤵️
the concert with the participation of Russian singers such as Kirkorov has been prevented by the police for non-compliance with permissive regulations. It is worth noting that Kirkorov is under sanctions in several EU states.⤵️
Read 4 tweets
Jun 18
#Russia: Some messages from Putin addressed to the US and the West (depicted by the @nytimes), exposing his deep personal denial of the consequences on regional and global security caused by the Russian aggression against Ukraine:⤵️
About Russian “exceptionalism: “Russia is entering the approaching epoch as a powerful, sovereign country […] We will certainly use the new, colossal opportunities that this era is opening in front of us and will become even stronger.”⤵️
About the EU and the ties between Brussels and Washington: “the European Union has completely lost its political sovereignty.”⤵️
Read 7 tweets
Jun 17
#Ukraine_Moldova_Georgia_EU: I read the opinion of the EU Commission on the candidate for membership. Here are some conclusions: 1) The data relied upon by the Commission comes primarily from the questionnaires completed in April and May by the three applicant counties.⤵️
Given the socio-economic difficulties that the three countries are going through, it is difficult to understand why the Commission praises so confidently the macro-financial stability (which is actually very unstable because of the Russian aggression etc.);⤵️
2) The Commission speaks of good foundations for reforms (which is partly true). Depending on the sector and the country, some reforms started some time ago (time-tested) or recently (the case of Moldova or Georgia). So, the long-term dynamics of the reforms is difficult to⤵️
Read 7 tweets

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