Thread: This is for a working paper of mine. Its testing whether the Conquest of Quebec by the British in 1760 was marked by a change in market integration. This graph shows the coefficient for Qc City prices on the lagged price in Qc City #econhist#econtwitter
The idea is that market integration should lead to prices in other regions at time t should become more relevant than in region i at time t-1. A falling coefficient on the lagged prices should be indicative of this.
The coefficients also gradually exclude French rule years to see what happens as "more British rule years" enter the estimation.
Its still preliminary but its literally the first econometric attempt to evaluate the effects of the British Conquest of Quebec in 1760. The idea is based on the claim that the Conquest pushed French-Canadians farmers into a retreat from the market.
Signs of more market integration would at least rule out this possibility for adverse effects of the Conquest. Other mechanisms would have to be considered. CC. @marcfbellemare (I told you I dont give a shit about sacred cows).
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Thread: As my @Georgetown colleague and friend Jason Brennan, the defense of @KevinMKruse’s plagiarism is sickeningly depressing. The correct answer is to evaluate the extent of Kruse’s misbehavior and produce the punishment in function to the degree of the offense 1/n
If everything @PhilWMagness said is true but nothing more, a minor punishment is warranted (e.g. Inviting more referees each time Kruse proposes article or book). If its everything and more, the punishment should be ramped up. 2/n
Citing trolls and pundits like @DineshDSouza is no excuse to defend Kruse. After all, broken clocks can be right twice a day even if those clocks are actually human douchebags. The only correct answer is further inquiry! Anything else is political tribalism 3/n
Thread: My paper on revisiting income inequality in the USA is now online at the Economic Journal @RoyalEconSoc. Let me explain why it matters here. But first, just look at this graph which summarizes it all
1) In the paper, we find that the estimates of income inequality in the US over the 20th century suffer from three massive flaws pre-1960.
2) First, because there are so few tax filers in the early years, some adjustments have to be made to get a steady share of the top fractiles. However, the adjustment used by Piketty and Saez was based on ratios of married to unmarried filers in 1942...
Econ Thread: My paper on the strange experiment of playing card money in 17th-18th centuries Canada (image below) with Bryan Cutsinger and Mathieu Bédard was accepted in the European Review of Economic History #econhist#econtwitter
This is a *very* strange monetary experiment in economic history. The governor of the colony printed money on the back of playing cards to finance expenditures when he ran out of coins. The "notes" were backed by incoming coin shipments.
Yet, and this might interest @JohnHCochrane because of the fiscal theory of the price level implications, there was no inflation in spite of massive overissues.
Thread: Now forthcoming in Public Choice: how rent-seeking explains asylum expansion in America between 1870 and 1910 (co-authored with Ray March). #econhist#econtwitter
Few people know that the asylums in American asylums expanded 10x in terms of absolute numbers and close to 4x in per capita terms between 1870 and 1910.
Most works in social history attribute this to broadly defined contemporary understandings of public interest (some of which are less savoury than others). Very few works have tried to see if there was a rent-seeking component. Ray and I argue there was one!
Given the massive drop in JOE listings on the econ JM, here is some source of hope: if you are a candidate that goes into the private sector this year and you apply to return to academia next year, I will take that as a strong signal of your commitment to research #econtwitter
Last year, I did the job market interviews for my university (@kingsatwestern) and it was painful because I had to say "no" to very decent candidates. One of the main deciding factors for us was the commitment to research and teaching abilities.
Sorting research potential is *particularly* hard and so we looked for signals regarding persistence of efforts in the future. Personally, if somebody accepted a job during the market in the private sector and then tried to return, I would see that as a strong signal.
People have heavily debated whether markets/states can/need provide public goods. Essentially, people have debated whether public goods are market failures and (if they are) how frequently do these failure happen.
The most frequently used example is that of the lighthouse which has many characteristics that make it a public good (non-excludable and non-rivalrous).