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Vincent Geloso Profile picture
Vincent Geloso
@VincentGeloso
Québécois Econ prof @MasonEconomics. LSE-trained TTU-proud, GMU-blood. I do econ hist, pol econ & the measurement of living standards. Book harvester & French
Dec 4 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
I agree wholeheartedly. I am one of the big skeptics of the link between state capacity and growth (article 1). I also point out in multiple articles that there are big tradeoffs (articles 2 and 3) that people miss and that outcomes are often poorly defined (articles 4 and 5) Article 1: Geloso, V. J., & Salter, A. W. (2020). State capacity and economic development: Causal mechanism or correlative filter?. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 170, 372-385.

sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Jul 21 • 15 tweets • 4 min read
🧵Now available! My paper with Ashruta Acharya and Alek Psrurek on the most generous engagement with the most influential "model" of degrowth. TLDR: It doesnt hold empirically. It predicts the opposite. Image The "Doughnut Model" by Kate Raworth is the most influential framework in degrowth thinking. It claims sustainable development exists only between a "social foundation" and an "ecological ceiling." Outside that? Injustice or unsustainability. But does it hold up empirically? Image
Jun 13 • 16 tweets • 6 min read
🧵While everyone is discussing the new Piketty paper, I have (with Alexis Akira Toda) another paper, now conditionally accepted at Cliometrica, that points out a key flaw in his earlier work: the Pareto Interpolation method used to make shares from tabular data is bad.Image Here is the origin of the problem. When you do not have micro-data and only tables of income where there are intervals (0$ to 1000$ etc. -- see image), you need some way of assuming distributing within intervals and across them. The usual method is Pareto interpolation. Image
Apr 29 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Tje🧵There it is! The paper that disentangles Cuba's socialist revolution from Soviet Aid and the US trade embargo.

TLDR: The embargo explains nothing, Soviet aid ... aided (duh), and the Revolution takes the lion's share. Image On the graph here, we used the Maddison Project Database and synthetic control to construct Cuba without the revolution, embargo, and Soviet Aid. The red line is the synthetic (counterfactual), orange is actual Cuba but with the "flawed" GDP numbers (flawed because they are largely assumed). The green uses John Devereux's recent reconstruction of Cuba's national account. The blue subtracts Soviet Aid.Image
Apr 23 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
🧵Comme Hayek avertissait les socialistes de tous bords, il faut maintenant mettre en garde contre la tentation protectionniste, omniprésente de Trump à @francoislegault en passant par @RubaGhazalQS et @MarkJCarney. Un résumé de mon op-ed dans @LP_LaPresse Image 1/ Derrière des slogans comme « champions nationaux » ou « industries stratégiques », le protectionnisme se cache sous un vernis technique. Ca donne des platitudes comme « promouvoir des champions nationaux », « protéger nos industries stratégiques », « rapatrier les chaînes d’approvisionnement » ou encore « se protéger contre les abus des étrangers ».
Apr 22 • 27 tweets • 11 min read
🧵There is no fatality for social mobility in Canada as report suggests. In fact, there is every reason to be optimistic about the potential to create a highly mobile society. This thread is based on a half-dozen articles of mine (with co-authors) First, it's important to distinguish between two types of social mobility: absolute and relative. Absolute mobility refers to the ability to earn more than one's parents, while relative mobility concerns the extent to which a person's income rank is independent of their parents' rank.
Mar 4 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
🧵Last time Canada did "big" retaliatory tariffs? After Smoot-Hawley in the Great Depression. The result? Trade collapsed, and tariffs (U.S. + Canada) explain half the economic contraction from 1929 to 1934. Half.

1/N
Ref : Amaral, P., & MacGee, J. J. (2016). Trade, Relative Prices, and the Canadian Great Depression (No. 1606). Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Yes, Canada's response to the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act was a disaster (image). The U.S. tariff hikes in 1930 triggered a wave of retaliatory tariffs worldwide, with Canada being among the hardest hit. Image
Feb 16 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
🧵New paper (with my students @PatRubenFitz and @jrhall97) forthcoming at the Scandinavian Economic History Review. It makes a simple point: there was less inequality than you think in America 1921-41 and it fell faster than you think. 1/n Image The Great Leveling, a sharp decline in U.S. income inequality, is often dated to the 1940s. But did it start earlier? We argue that correcting for regional price differences suggests a more gradual decline beginning in the 1920s. 2/n
Dec 18, 2024 • 20 tweets • 8 min read
🧵Now that the book is completed, I want to tell you in this thread why America, between 1870 and 1910, actually was enjoying fast growth in living standards for the bottom 90% -- as fast the improvements for the top 1% & faster than the improvements for the top 10% #econtwitter Image The story usually told is that inequality was rising. I dispute that in full. For reasons that historians know and agree but never aggregated as corrections to measurement. There are five big corrections.
Dec 11, 2024 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
🧵The United States' weird position on this chart has not as much to do with health care as one would first think.

1. The US has a high rate of car fatality and car ownership. The mortality is concentrated among young people and they heavily reduce life expectancy at birth. 1 (continued): If you shift to life expectancy at 65, which is bound to be less affected by this, the US is not as much of an outlier (see big black dot). Image
Jun 16, 2023 • 42 tweets • 11 min read
Thread: Let us be clear -- the work of Gabriel Zucman should be taken with a major/huge grain of salt. Largely because he and his colleagues have been sloppy as hell. I will not mince words here and list the litany of sloppiness #econtwitter First, you have to understand the following thing: the work of Zucman with Piketty and Saez (henceforth PSZ) builds heavily on a 2003 paper in QJE. I revisited the data, assumptions and methods of that paper in two published papers -- one at Economic Inquiry and the other at EJ
Jun 14, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Rien de surprenant si vous connaissez la littérature sur le système de santé cubain (voir liens dans le fil) #polqc

journaldemontreal.com/2023/06/15/ces… sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Jun 14, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
This paper in NBER (summarized at WAPO) is not saying what many think it says. It says that the state can get more revenues by auditing the rich. It doesnt say the rich cheat more! #econtwitter Why? I used to be interested in illegal work, sidelines, underground economy etc. I can tell you that cheating at the low-end of the ladder is easier because the sums are smaller and easier to hide.
May 22, 2023 • 15 tweets • 5 min read
Thread: This is a poor reading of Hayek.
The Use of Knowledge in Society (AER, 1945) does not say what Acemoglu *thinks* it says. Prices are not aggregative devices. They are knowledge-economizing devices that are cheaper than *any* other devices. #econtwitter The problem starts with fact that there is a great deal of knowledge that is simply tacit and impossible to code. Moreover, the *value* of that tacit knowledge is impossible to code as well. For example, riding a bike is hard to express into a book/code. So is coding its worth
Apr 3, 2023 • 16 tweets • 4 min read
A 3-facts thread on what happens when your economic history is as bad as Edward Baptist's but on the right:

1. Yes, Black Americans are really amongst the richest people on Earth. But that says very little about counterfactuals where slavery never existed. 2. No, Africa would be better off. We know that more rugged areas in Africa (ruggedness made the slave trade harder) are richer than less rugged areas. This is strong supportive evidence that where the slave trade could flourish, the worst off people were.
Mar 6, 2023 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Personal experience: I shopped a replication papers showing that the famous Piketty and Saez paper in the QJE was sloppily made, had tons of typos and tons of huge historical errors (like omitting that all state/local gov employees didnt file taxes) and told that it didnt matter This was ultimately published in the Economic Journal -- doi.org/10.1093/ej/uea…. It showed that this was an immensely flawed paper.
Mar 6, 2023 • 9 tweets • 6 min read
Thread: New paper available at Social Science Quarterly (cc. @SSQ_Online) with @casey_joe on the myth of wartime prosperity. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ss… #econhist #econtwitter We take inspiration from Robert Higgs' 1992 "Myth of Wartime Prosperity" in the Journal of Economic History but shift from the USA to Canada.
Oct 25, 2022 • 11 tweets • 8 min read
Thread: Forthcoming in Southern Economic Journal, @JustinTCallais and I have a piece titled "Intergenerational Income Mobility and Economic Freedom" #econtwitter Image We argue that @MilesCorak and others were right to point out that income inequality reduces the chances at upward *relative* intergenerational income mobility. However, we also argue that this effect is mitigated by the role of institutions.
Jul 12, 2022 • 15 tweets • 8 min read
Thread: I hate this graph because of its implicit message (i.e., we dont do this anymore). It ignores so much evidence about industrial innovation in byproducts development 1/n My friend and colleague Pierre Desrochers (we co-authored four articles together on markets and the environment) for example showed how many byproducts from waste were developed in Britain during the industrial revolution cambridge.org/core/journals/…
Jun 24, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Thread: This is for a working paper of mine. Its testing whether the Conquest of Quebec by the British in 1760 was marked by a change in market integration. This graph shows the coefficient for Qc City prices on the lagged price in Qc City #econhist #econtwitter The idea is that market integration should lead to prices in other regions at time t should become more relevant than in region i at time t-1. A falling coefficient on the lagged prices should be indicative of this.
Jun 21, 2022 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Thread: As my @Georgetown colleague and friend Jason Brennan, the defense of @KevinMKruse’s plagiarism is sickeningly depressing. The correct answer is to evaluate the extent of Kruse’s misbehavior and produce the punishment in function to the degree of the offense 1/n Image If everything @PhilWMagness said is true but nothing more, a minor punishment is warranted (e.g. Inviting more referees each time Kruse proposes article or book). If its everything and more, the punishment should be ramped up. 2/n