Thread by @WarintheFuture

This map from @war_mapper demonstrates the incremental nature of the Russian gains, and the significant resistance offered by Ukrainian defenders, over the past two weeks. 1/14 🧵

https://twitter.com/war_mapper/status/1540852986125189121

2/ Remember, since about day 55 of this war, this region has been the Russian main effort. It is here where the majority of Russian combat power - especially in ground combat, artillery and air power - has been concentrated.

3/ And while this demonstrates some learning by the Russian military, they still have only managed advances on the ground that are in the single digit kilometers per week. It is neither a static ‘WW1’ situation, nor a maneuvering ‘Gulf War 1’ situation.

4/ What we are seeing in the east resembles more the grinding battles around Caen in the immediate wake of the Normandy landings in 1944. historyofwar.org/articles/battl…

5/ The question remains - if the Russians can close off the Luhansk pocket, do they have the reserves and logistic support to maintain their offensive momentum? They, like the Ukrainians, have been slogging it out here for some time - combat exhaustion will start to tell.

6/ There are also other challenges that the Russians will have to address in the short term. The Ukrainians in the east will be defending along a much shorter defensive line. And, the Ukrainian advances in the south will pose a dilemma about priorities for the Russians.

7/ The Ukrainians have had to make hard decisions about #Severodonetsk. They needed to stay long enough to ensure the Russians were decisively committed, and cause enough attrition to Russian 1st echelon forces and reserves.

8/ At the same time, Ukrainians would have had a worst case plan to eventually cede ground to preserve their combat forces. This is a very delicate balancing act at the operational and strategic levels. It demands superior decision making and courage from senior leaders.

9/ While the Ukrainians have been fighting in the south, east and north of Kharkiv, they have also been redeveloping their logistic system around the NATO model, and re-arming with long range fires. This will stand them in good stead for the fighting ahead.

10/ Ukraine ceding ground in the east as a tactical realignment is not the same as ‘Ukraine is losing the war’, as some have cast the events of the last few weeks. It is simply part of war’s nature, as humans seek to impose their will on each other. War has many twists and turns.

11/ In summary, it has been a grim week for #Ukraine. But even the best military organisations sometimes have bad weeks in war. This is entirely normal. Remember Dunkirk, the start of Op Torch & the 1st Battle of Alamein?

12/ The very best military institutions learn and adapt after such weeks. And, throughout this war, the Ukrainians have demonstrated that they are more agile and adaptive over time - and better at the strategic and tactical levels - than the Russians. ft.com/content/9618df…

13/ For such reasons, I have previously argued for strategic patience. The Ukrainians need the time to re-arm, reinforce and eventually eject the Russians from their territory. With their courage, and our support, they can. End. smh.com.au/world/europe/h…

14/ Thank you to the following, whose images I have used in this thread: @TheStudyofWar @criticalthreats @washingtonpost @Blue_Sauron @walter_report @War_Mapper @MriyaAid