Thread by @MackayIM

😷Australian National #Flu data up to 19JUN22.
🦠lab-confirmed total cases⬆️ but slowing
Graphs from: www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/…

😷Yes, there is undoubtedly more testing capacity in Aus after labs beefed up PCR testing for the pandemic.
😷One way to check this is a real rise in #flu cases, not just over-testing is to positivity rate, deaths, hospital beds & ICU occupied beds with flu-confirmed patients.

🛏️year to date (YTD from April 2022), 54 lab-confirmed influenza deaths (+27 since last fortnight)🛏️YTD, 989 sentinel hospital admissions (+256; slowing)
🥽YTD, 60 (6.1%) of those admitted to ICU (+15; slowing)

😷Another way is to look at the proportion of tests that are virus-positive (=positives divided by total tested).
🧬the % is highest at 1,462 per 100,000 population in the 5-9 year of age group (~800/100k last fortnight)

🧬National rate has climbed from 341.8 per 100,000 population last fortnight to 571.7 per 100,000 this reporting fortnight

😷If we look at the proportion of respiratory virus tests that are influenza-positive at a limited number of "sentinel" labs, we can see the rate is still rising (not sure what the denominator was in Jan-early Mar) and has spiked lately.
🧬16.4%⬆️ from 12.5% previous fortnight

Ian's take-home messages...
📢Get #flu vaccine if you haven't already
📢Flu seasons pass - wearing a good mask, properly, indoors increases your chances of missing this one
📢Stay home if sick (=new: cough, sneezing, headache, fever, fatigue)
📢Stay away from the elderly if sick