Thread by @shashj

Interesting new Russian casualty figure from head of British Army (@ArmyCGS) this morning: “Up to 33,000 Russians dead, wounded, missing or captured.” If we assume 1:3 or 1:4 ratio of KIA to wounded, then that would imply fewer than 15,000 dead—lower than previous UK estimate.

CGS: “this year alone we [UK] have supplied 9500 anti-tank missiles, of which over 5000 were NLAW. We have already provided UK-based training for 650 [Ukrainian] soldiers, and in the coming months, the British Army will deliver battle-winning skills to a further 10,000.”

UK CGS: “…historically, Russia often starts wars badly. And because Russia wages war at the strategic, not the tactical level – its depth and resilience means it can suffer any number of campaigns, battles and engagements lost, regenerate and still ultimately prevail.” #LWC2022

CGS: “If this battle [with Russia] came, we would likely be outnumbered at the point of attack and fighting like hell. Standoff air, maritime or cyber fires are unlikely to dominate on their own – Land will still be the decisive domain.” #lwc2022

CGS: “And though I bow to no one in my advocacy for the need for game changing digital transformation, to put it bluntly, you can’t cyber your way across a river. No single platform, capability, or tactic will unlock the problem” #lwc2022

UK chief of general staff speech now available here: gov.uk/government/spe…

I am losing track of UK casualty estimates. Yesterday head of British Army said "up to 33,000". Today we have figure of "25,000 Russians" from defence secretary, who seems to have lost 8,000 dead Russians (is discrepancy the estimate of DNR/LNR losses?)
standard.co.uk/news/politics/…

To clarify: Ben Wallace said 25,000 dead, and CGS said up to 33,000 dead, wounded, missing or captured. But this makes even less sense, to be honest. It is not possible to have 25,000 KIA and just 8,000 wounded, missing and captured.

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1542056149075329025?s=20&t=yF0CtgwhwWF1KO5Ujk_IFg