Final 2022 redistricting scorecard: @CookPolitical estimates a GOP gain of three seats from new maps *alone.* That was almost exactly our pre-redistricting forecast. But it's a seven (!) seat swing against Dems vs. our early March forecast. cookpolitical.com/redistricting
There's a tiny jump in the number of Biden-won seats under the new maps vs. the old maps (226 vs. 224). But the median House seat is slated to move slightly right, from Biden +2.4 (#IL14) to Biden +2.1 (#MI05).
And, because Dems already hold most of the seats that have gotten bluer (as well as most of the swing seats that have gotten redder), Republicans have more pickup opportunities from new maps.
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Fact: of the 301 new House districts that have now been adopted, just 17 (5.6%) went for Biden or Trump by five points or less, down from 39 of 301 (13.0%) districts in the same states currently.
Back in 2012, after the last redistricting round, 66/435 districts went for Obama or McCain by five points or less. By 2020, only 51/435 districts went for Biden or Trump by five points or less - in other words, voter self-sorting explains a lot of the competitive decline.
But the 2022 redistricting cycle is rapidly compounding the decline. There may only be 30-35 seats in that range by the time all is said and done.
So the House's pro-GOP bias may be reduced or eliminated, but the House is also on pace to be more anti-competitive than ever.
NEW: for the first time, Dems have taken the lead on @CookPolitical's 2022 redistricting scorecard. After favorable developments in NY, AL, PA et. al., they're on track to net 2-3 seats from new maps vs. old ones.*
*There's still quite a bit of uncertainty in:
- FL, where Rs are debating how aggressive to be
- NC/OH, where courts may order big changes to GOP maps
- PA, where the state Sup Ct will select a map
- AL/LA/SC, where SCOTUS could decide on additional Black opportunity seats
*Evergreen disclaimer: this doesn't mean Dems are on track to gain House seats *overall* in 2022. A 2-3 seat redistricting gain is significant, but a 42% Biden approval rating could be worth several dozen seats to the GOP in November.
NEW: Dem leaders in Albany are set to release maps in the next 72 hours, but there's still tension between Marc Elias/Sean Patrick Maloney - who are pushing for a hyper-aggressive 23D-3R gerrymander - and Upstate Dem incumbents who'd like more minor changes to their districts.
At issue: it's theoretically possible to draw a 23D-3R gerrymander w/ 23 double-digit Biden seats (example, left). But it would require Dem Reps. Paul Tonko #NY20, Joe Morelle #NY25 and Brian Higgins #NY26 to give up some existing blue turf (current map, right).
There's talk NY Dems might instead propose a milder 22D-4R gerrymander that leaves Tonko, Morelle and Higgins districts intact but still shores up #NY18 Maloney & #NY19 Delgado (rough sketch below).
In this scenario, #NY22 Rep. Claudia Tenney (R) could be spared.
BREAKING: national Dems are using a "communities of interest" argument to urge their Albany counterparts to adopt an aggressive 23D-3R gerrymander that could wipe out five of NY's eight GOP seats. nyirc.gov/storage/commen…
Highlights of the 23D-3R plan recommended by commenter "Sean Patrick:"
- Staten Island #NY11 drawn in w/ Lower Manhattan
- New maj-min #NY02 on Long Island
- #NY27 Jacobs (R) merged w/ #NY23 Reed (R)
- #NY22 Tenney (R) put in a D-leaning seat
- #NY03 crosses Long Island Sound
More highlights of the Maloney plan submitted via public comment to NY's redistricting site:
- #NY16 Bowman (D) goes from Bronx to rural Dutchess
- #NY17 Jones (D) goes to the Catskills
- #NY19 Delgado (D) goes to Ithaca/Binghamton
- #NY25 Morelle (D) picks up Buffalo suburbs
Thread: yes, the new House map is on track to be slightly more *equitable* (less pro-GOP) than the current one. But keep in mind, it's also on track to feature:
- Even fewer competitive seats
- Even wider disparities in maps' treatment of non-white voters from state to state
I think @mcpli's broader point is fair, but the way I'd frame it is that vastly different standards are being applied to non-white communities in TX vs. IL, AL vs. VA, etc. depending on partisan motive, absent a clearer set of VRA rules from SCOTUS/Congress.
If federal courts unpacked #VA03 to create an additional Black opportunity district in 2016, a consistent interpretation of the VRA would also demand that #AL07, #LA02 and likely #SC06 be unpacked to create second Black majority seats too.