One random point: if you're of the opinion that the special election performance can be excused away because of Fortenberry's scandal dragging #NE01 Republicans down, that's a pretty big strike against the "Mike Garcia is favored because Christy Smith is a bad candidate" argument
When I modeled it, Smith's November 2020 performance came out as only a point below average. The counterargument I got (which made sense, even if I disagreed) was that Smith was responsible for Garcia's incumbency boost because she lost the earlier special after Hill resigned.
I disagreed because I thought COVID + Hill's scandal dragged Dems down enough in an ancestrally R seat to where it was a loss that was more explainable. Anyway, if you think the #NE01 special's shift is partly explained by scandal, it's worth revisiting your thoughts on CA-27.
and lastly, for what it's worth, I think Dobbs clearly played some role in the results tonight, but the shift was significant enough to where Dems probably were also helped by the Fortenberry scandal dragging Rs in this district down a little.
actually, one more point: there's no way this election should have been legal. you can't just hold elections under the new district lines for a seat still representing the old district. that is insane.
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