Thread by @HenriVanhanen

As Türkiye lifts its opposition to Finland's and Sweden's NATO membership, a short thread on the developments and what's ahead next.🧵#NATOSummit #MadridOTAN22

1. The breakthrough between Finland, Sweden and Türkiye in Madrid came as a surprise but was preceded by several discussions between all parties on all levels. My conclusion is that this was done to give the process time away from the spotlight. Hence the low public expectations.

2. This was a reminder to Finland and Sweden how NATO as a political alliance functions: not a rose garden and even if it was, even roses have spikes. Sometimes decisions will require tough compromises and a lot of work.

3. Also a reminder that problems could still arise. Even if the deadlock over the opening of accession negotiations was opened, the final ratification could become an issue. At least Türkiye will likely look closely what happens in terms of the 🇫🇮🇸🇪🇹🇷 MoU agreement.

4. Key points of the 🇹🇷🇸🇪🇫🇮 MoU signed in Madrid:

- Core concern on counter-terrorism and the activities of the PKK and YPG.

- Opens opportunities in defence material cooperation.

- Doesn't oblige parties to amend their legislation or undermine 🇫🇮🇸🇪 the rule of law.

5. In other words, there's a set of issues and a broader agenda for cooperation on terrorism related issues and defence material in the future. While offering clear guidelines it also leaves room for interpretation on the execution. A functioning political compromise I'd say.

6. The role of the US and NATO were crucial in the background. Especially Biden and Stoltenberg put weight on resolving the issue by reaching out to Erdogan and pushing for talks. For Biden, this was also about the credibility of US leadership and signals to Asian partners + Xi.

7. Also, this was about not letting NATO's open-door policy and its potential credibility issues become a dominating topic in the Summit, an important issue for both the US and NATO. Issues such as Russia and the Strategic Concept are now more pressing and suitable topics.

8. What next? NATO will invite Finland and Sweden to become members of the alliance as NATO invitees. This will allow a broader access to the Alliance's activities and planning process. More importantly, the actual membership negotiations with NATO will begin very soon.

9. Due to the high interoperability and strong rule of law status of Finland and Sweden, I assume the negotiations with NATO will take - once they begin - at maximum a couple of weeks. That will then be followed by ratification process.

10. Most NATO members will likely undergo a quick ratification in their national parliaments during 2022. Still I suspect that some will be next year. Will be interesting to see which member state is the fastest one. I assume it's one of the Baltics or Nordics, what's your guess?

11. And last but not least, the latest support for NATO membership in Finland (27.6.):

YES 79%

NO 11%%

UNDECIDED 10%

Still going at it strong!

hs.fi/politiikka/art…

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