#Flu in #Queensland, week to 26JUN2022
😷Total numbers are declining (again) but..
😷current data point(s) often changes in the subsequent week as outstanding results are finalised and reported
😷Percent positive with a moving average.
🤧Still >10% but declining.
😷Hospital admission numbers because of #flu, broken up by region of Qld, with historical context.
🤒Drop in admissions this week
😷Can't conclude much about subtyping from such low numbers. YTD clearly A/H3N2 dominance. But wondering if last week's almost even spilt with A/H1N1.
Don't call the season over quite yet!
😷Ian's take-home messages...
📢Get #flu vaccine if you haven't already
📢Flu seasons pass-a good mask, worn properly, indoors increases your chances of missing this one
📢Stay home if sick (=new: cough, sneezing, headache, fever, fatigue)
📢Stay away from the elderly if sick
SARS-CoV-2 is rising now (hosp below). While impossible to know, interesting this is occurring as flu is declining. Virus:virus interactions leading to interference (⬆SC2 BA.5 dominating flu), or release of interference (⬇Flu allowing SC2 access to fewer IFN-induced hosts?)
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😷Yes, there is undoubtedly more testing capacity in Aus after labs beefed up PCR testing for the pandemic.
😷One way to check this is a real rise in #flu cases, not just over-testing is to positivity rate, deaths, hospital beds & ICU occupied beds with flu-confirmed patients.
🛏️year to date (YTD from April 2022), 54 lab-confirmed influenza deaths (+27 since last fortnight)🛏️YTD, 989 sentinel hospital admissions (+256; slowing)
🥽YTD, 60 (6.1%) of those admitted to ICU (+15; slowing)
Does Australia have a public health infection-related data-hoarding, education and communication problem?
•Why is Australia so stingy with its data?
•Why are we so bad at community communication about preventing infections?
•What is it about us?
And I say this with the caveat that @NSWHealth is the gold standard in this area and does so much good work in these spaces.
So we know it *can* be funded, the expertise exists and it just is possible.
Maybe a CDC will fix this communication failure and help standardise content and its provision. But nothing is stopping it from having been fixed long ago. And NSW shows that.
•Why don't we have detailed, easily accessible, stored retrospective data on all infections over time?
"Face masks and coverings cannot be seen in isolation but are part of ‘policy packages’"
"Consistent and effective public messaging is vital to public adherence of wearing face masks and coverings. Conflicting policy advice generates confusion" ox.ac.uk/news/2020-07-0…
And in news just in...#Flu says "haha, just kidding, still going", to Queensland. #Flu in #Queensland to 19JUN2022
😷current data point(s) often changes in the subsequent week as outstanding results are finalised and reported
😷The biggest per population infection impact is in the under 20-year-olds.
😷Percent positive with a moving average. This also shows the rebound in the 20+ group.
In this video interview with Kary Mullis he (actually) says "with PCR you can find almost anything in anybody". Correct - 𝗮𝗹𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 but only 𝙞𝙛 the thing is there. PCR cannot find something not there. It also can't find it if present in v. low amounts
He also says..."I don't think you can misuse PCR". "It's [PCR] a really quantitative thing. It tells you something about nature and about what's there".
"That's not a misuse it's sort of a misinterpretation".
Full version of that video is here: archive.org/details/corpor… & archive.org/details/corpor…
It's enlightening for several reasons.
In taking apart his own Intro by Esai Morales (for being wrong), Mullis makes rambling note, "this is the way the news is" (while chewing on tree leaves).
#Flu and #SARSCoV2 in New South Wales (NSW), Australia to week ending 11JUN2022.
😷 #SARSCoV2 positives go slowly down, as #flu positives still go up.
No denominator here so no percentage positivity.
😷That comes from these graphs.
For #SARSCoV2 that rate is ~100/100,000 population for all age groups and steady while for #flu, it varies by age, up to ~80/100,00 for those aged 0-9 years, and rising
In terms of emergency department presentations, #flu is also still rising (watch that hook next week) while #COVID19 presentations are slowly decreasing (at about #flu levels now).