Compound248 Profile picture
Jul 2 25 tweets 11 min read
Ever wonder how many billionaires Forbes misses?

Garfield burst into the zeitgeist in 1978. @Forbes doesn’t count its creator, Jim Davis, but he’s almost certainly in the billionaire club.

What can we learn from a boy who was raised on a cow farm in Indiana?

Read on.🧵👇
1/x ImageImage
Dream Big:

Davis had huge aspirations - his stated goal was to create a comic that was a mass-market sensation!

From da Vinci to Buffett: greats use Apprenticeship to gain Mastery. For years, Davis trained under the tutelage of an existing success: Tom Ryan for “Tumbleweeds.” Image
7 Years in the Desert:

In 1973, Davis left Ryan to create “Gnorm Gnat.” But the 27 year-old’s comic strip floundered: his cynical gnat failed to gain traction.

By 1975, an editor told him: "Your art is good, your gags are great, but bugs — nobody can relate to bugs!"
🤔 🐞 Image
Reflect:
Admonished, Davis studied other comic commercial successes.

“[Seeing the success of the] Peanuts property over the years, I knew that sort of thing could happen with a comic strip, primarily an animal, again.

“Snoopy is very popular in licensing. Charlie Brown is not.” Image
Unlocking an Insight:
In studying what worked and what didn’t, Davis noticed lots of successful dogs - Snoopy, Belvedere, Marmaduke - but no cats.

His “gags” were great, but nobody likes bugs?
Perhaps there was room for an Everyman Cat. One whose personality rhymed with Gnorm’s. ImageImageImage
Paved with Gold
“It's…a formula. I noticed dog strips doing well, and I knew an animal strip would be strong. People aren't threatened by an animal. They have a lot of latitude to do things that humans can't.”

Cat > Bug? Garfield = Product-Market Fit?
😽
Lovable Animals = Big $ ImageImage
Davis reverse engineered the building blocks of mass-market success.

“[I made a] conscious effort to come up with a good, marketable character.

“[I’d] been trying to get syndicated for years - that's a lot of time to try to figure out what makes some strips go and others fail.” Image
The Wisdom of Elders:

“Mort Walker [Beetle Bailey + Hi & Lois] was a ’big hands, big feet‘ cartoonist - he knew how to create personalities. Peanuts taught me the power of gentle sentiments in everyday situational humor. Milton Caniff took me places I didn’t even know existed.” ImageImageImageImage
Davis pursued a broad appeal that would drive commercial success - from the beginning, he planned for success beyond the newsprint.

Davis chose, in his words, “a fat, lazy, lasagna-loving, cynical” cat - an animal and personality everyone could relate to.

Garfield was born. Image
“I saw licensing down the road. I really did.”

The Muppets & Peanuts showed Davis there was a business of teeshirts and calendars to be had, if only he could get the formula right.

And why stop with a cat? He added Odie, an adorable dog as Garfield’s happy, unknowing nemesis. ImageImageImageImage
Formula:

“Great cartoonists were doing a study in contrasts. Put smart + stupid, tall + short, fat + skinny. Garfield had a strong personality - patterned after my grandfather. Jon is patterned after me – easygoing, wishy-washy, positive about life. Garfield is the pessimist.” Image
Don’t Just Copy. Innovate

“It would have been easy to go the cute-cat route, but that wouldn't have been true to my humor. I felt a selfish, cynical, lazy type of character with a little soft underbelly would endure.” Image
1,000 True Fans:

Starting in 1976, Davis honed his cat. In 1978, Garfield debuted in 41 papers.

“Several months after launch, the Chicago Sun-Times cancelled Garfield. Over 1,300 angry readers demanded that Garfield be reinstated. It was. And the rest, as they say, is history.”
Not a Businessman; I’m a Business, Man

By 1981, Davis formed Paws, Inc., to market and license Garfield.

One year later, Paws grossed $50 to $60 million ($150 to $180 million in 2022 dollars!).
Davis had a mega-hit, but would it endure?

Davis understood his audience - his goal was NOT daily innovation, but daily CONSISTENCY. Davis would include everyone and create evergreen content. Garfield rarely references pop culture or narrow topics like a specific sport.
🍝 Image
Mass Appeal: “I don't use seasons”

Garfield works in any society. No rhyming gags, wordplay, colloquialisms. The only holiday is Christmas.

“Keep the gags broad, the humor general & applicable to everyone: I deal mainly w/ eating & sleeping. That applies to everyone, anywhere.”
Consumable - Know Your Fan:

“I distill everything. Garfield art is very, very simple. Usually there's a tabletop. Nothing distracts the eye. Hopefully they see the characters, the expression. There's as few words as possible. Garfield's expressions are very carefully drawn.” Image
CAC:

Davis worked to recreate on-ramps for new readers.

It might leave Garfield a little static, but “I [feel responsible] for the brand-new readers. The fact that he loves lasagna, he's lazy, that he's cynical, that he's selfish, that he hates to exercise, loves to sleep.”
EV/Sales:

The business of Garfield took off.

At one point, 7 of the top 15 books on @nytimes book list were Garfield, forcing NYT to change its ranking methodology!

In the early 2000s, two Garfield movies were made, grossing a combined $350 million.

Garfield was minting it. ImageImage
Garfield ANNUALLY sold $0.75 to $1 BILLION in licensed goods retail sales.

The comic strip peaked in 2004, circulating in nearly 2,600 daily newspapers.

The Guinness Book of World Records would name Garfield “the most widely syndicated comic strip in the world.”

🏆 Image
Beyond Print - The Small Screen:

From 1988 to 1994, a TV cartoon called “Garfield and Friends” aired.

A CGI animated “The Garfield Show” aired from 2009-2016 (available on Netflix).

A 3rd Garfield series is set to premier on Paramount+ this fall. Image
A Franchise:

From newsprint, to books, to calendars, to teeshirts, to TV, to the big-screen - Garfield is everywhere and loved across generations.

And the cynical cat may just be getting started - in 2023, we’ll hear Samuel L. Jackson & Chris Pratt in the 3rd Garfield movie. Image
Davis’ inspiration, Peanuts, was sold in 2010 for $175mm.

In 2019, ViacomCBS ( $PARA) bought Paws, Inc. from Davis. The price was undisclosed, but Davis likely had already made over $1 Billion in lifetime earnings.

Selling was just icing for Davis, allowing him to slow down. Image
Nailed It:

50 yrs ago, Jim Davis set out to create a comic strip hit with mass-market appeal and licensing opportunities - he looked up to the greats and wanted to join them.

He did - by 2015, his net worth was estimated to be >$800 million. Today it likely exceeds $1 Billion. Image
Hopefully you enjoyed this reprieve from market and political chaos - I had fun doing it!😀

And, maybe, we learned a lesson about pursuing greatness.

Like & RT the first tweet if you had fun!🙏

Inspired by @TrungTPhan.

To my American friends, Happy 4th! We are blessed.
🇺🇸🎇❤️

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More from @compound248

Jul 8
Elon terminates...as expected.

Now comes the fun.

What follows is a quick blink analysis on the $TWTR / @elonmusk termination.
🧵👇 Image
1st:
Everyone knows this is simple buyer's remorse.

Keep in mind that Elon referenced his eagerness to address bots and spam IN THE DEAL PRESS RELEASE. So spam and bots aren't a surprise to him - however, the stock market's dramatic decline may have been a surprise... Image
2nd:
Despite claiming he can't validate the mDAU, Elon writes that he sort of can *invalidate* the mDAU (to allege grounds to terminate).

I love when his lawyers @SkaddenArps switch from their voice to "Mr. Musk...strongly believes," allowing them to create distance from him. Image
Read 9 tweets
Jul 7
Welp, $TWTR.

I blame @compound248... ImageImage
For the record, my base case has been (and remains) that Elon attempts to terminate and they go to court (where I personally believe $TWTR has a much stronger hand). But that path involves RISK, which partially explains the wide arb.

Source:
washingtonpost.com/technology/202…
This gives a high level overview of my take on the legal situation.
Read 7 tweets
Jul 7
Twitter absolutely pumping out features: its beta for CoTweet is in the wild.

It allows multiple authors to publish a given Tweet. ImageImage
In addition to lots of obvious “normal” use cases, CoTweet creates an opportunity for large accounts to use their scale to magnify a Tweet’s exposure.

I could easily see the @litcapital’s of the world offering to CoTweet things for a few bones. It’s an immediate amplification.
It also launched Twitter Circles beta recently:
Read 5 tweets
Jun 20
The past two weeks, #Crypto has been building toward its Lehman Moment - I don’t think we’ve seen “it” yet.

So much leverage has built in that system (“DeFi”) - yield chasers. Ain’t over.

I’m not sure what to make of it, but I don’t think it’s truly systemic outside of crypto.
The $QQQ / $ARKK / Nasdaq dump is correlated, but different. Or, better said, crypto is correlated to it.

While I can imagine contagion events that bridge from crypto to broad tech, so far, these are not the same. They primarily share flows.
The rest of the economy / market is experiencing something like a combination of post-war adjustment with the mid-‘70s.

I suspect we are still only early- to middle-innings on discovering what the new world will look like.

So many cross-currents. Opportunity lies somewhere.
Read 9 tweets
Jun 15
Paul Singer and Seth Klarman about to get them some of that yummy trade-claim #crypto.
Hiring a restructuring firm is actually a surprisingly aboveboard and “normal” next step…

…odd for a crypto defi player.
The crypto “Euphoria” to “Distressed” cycle went warp speed - Ponzis don’t collapse slowly.
Read 4 tweets
Jun 11
Not a chartist, but this would seem important.

Next 40 years for interest rates might be……different.
Yes, I get that a few prior periods of rising rates would have had similar charts. For example: 2006. But that didn’t end well, did it?

This one is made different by inflation. We shall see if it ushers in economic regime change.
I should tip the hat to one of the wisest people I know for this simple, yet terrifying, chart and tweet.
Read 4 tweets

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