Sean McKnight Profile picture
Jul 4, 2022 11 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Here's one for ya: #WhatIf the Soviets landed on Mars, but basically nothing else changed? (1/10)
POD: Same as all of them - Sergei Korolev lives long enough to work out the bugs on the N-1. (2/10) ImageImage
The Soviets beat the US to the moon with a functioning LK Lander just a few months before Apollo 11's launch. (3/10) Image
With a working N-1, the Soviets continue Lunar missions in parallel with the US and proceed to develop the TMK spacecraft for a flight to Mars. (Check out @voyager212's interpretation, its great). (4/10) artstation.com/artwork/qQGJP
The Soviet TMK mission is greenlit and in 1973 the spacecraft is launched shortly after the US deploys Skylab. The mission leaves for the 1974 launch window and returns in 1976. (5/10)
From 1974 to 1982, 4 TMK flights are conducted. Like the OTL Salyut program (cancelled in this TL to pay for TMK), they are essentially crewed imaging satellites. (6/10)
The final mission, TMK-4 in 1982 achieves the first and only successful landing on the Martian surface. The mission is a complete shock to the US, as the Soviets had been promising a Mars landing for years, but it was believed to have been scrubbed by OKB-52. (7/10)
Back in the US, the Nixon administration largely scrubs the space program after 1972, believing that human exploration doesn't actually provide any real benefits. (8/10)
NASA's budget is severely reduced, and Nixon and later Reagan place far greater emphasis on military space applications. The Space Shuttle is made an all Air Force (and NRO) program. (9/10) Image
The Cold War ends much as it did in OTL. Nixon was kinda right: flags and footprints don't really benefit the country making them. The last place the flag of the USSR still flies is on Mars, and while that bothers Americans, it doesn't change global power dynamics. (10/10)

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More from @YNot_1989

Apr 11, 2023
Skipping over the problematic historiography, I think Friedman is making a mistake a lot of people are making right now: he's assuming the collapse/crisis is immanent.

I think we have another 5 years and we're barely at the beginning of how bad things can get. (1/)
Simply put, most of us alive today were born in the Long Peace, and Americans in particular have a bad habit of failing to appreciate just how bad things can get. We are at most in the middle of a new Sectional Crisis. (2/)
Oversimplifying, the Sectional Crisis (1848-1861) was a period or American history following the end of the Mexican American war, and really the end of the Missouri Compromise with the Compromise of 1850. (3/)
Read 11 tweets
Feb 1, 2023
1: Some industry buddies and I have been taking another crack at the Drake equation based on recent discoveries in astronomy and came away with an eerie conclusion:

There was less than a 50% chance for Earth to have developed an industrial civilization at this point (1) #space
2: For the unfamiliar, here's Carl Sagan running the Drake Equation in 1977.
3: Since Frank Drake came up with this thought experiment in 1961 we've learned quite a bit about the development of sentient life on our own planet, and more about exoplanets than can be summarized in a tweet.
Read 11 tweets
Jan 31, 2023
Pitch: Bobby has been living in New York working on his standup routine and writing for SNL. He's coming home because he's got a Netflix special coming out. The series is very much an indictment of small town America, and Texas in particular.
Peggy is still a realtor, now the primary breadwinner, and full blown Q anon.

Hank lost his pension after Buck got busted by the IRS. He's working at the Megalomart again.

Bobby doesn't really talk to his mom that much anymore, but weirdly he and Hank are on good terms.
Bill turned into a vegan health nut after a heart attack. He's now the neighborhood ladies man after Boomhauer retired to Costa Rica.

Kahn is now a permanent addition to the alley, and Hank's best friend (though both men will never admit it).
Read 8 tweets
Dec 14, 2022
#WhatIf Gregory Watson pushed to pass the Congressional Apportionment Amendment instead of the Congressional Compensation Amendment? (1) #alternatehistory en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Congressi…
In May of 1992, after a decade of spite-fueled lobbying, the final state to ratify the Congressional Apportionment Amendment... and all hell breaks loose.

Like in OTL, many Congressmen are livid that a new amendment has been imposed upon them, and try to block certification. (2)
On May 18, 1992, the Archivist of the United States, Don W. Wilson, certifies that the amendment's ratification had been completed, despite more legitimate calls that the wording of the amendment is unworkable. (3)
Read 19 tweets
Dec 12, 2022
The National Ignition Facility uses Inertial Confinement to achieve nuclear fusion. What that means is that you shoot a 192 laser beams (2.1 megajoules combined) at a thimble full of Hydrogen-3 (Tritium) and Hydrogen-2 (Deuterium.) (1) Image
...In a fraction of a second these gasses become almost 100x denser than lead which initiates fusion, essentially creating an artificial star.

This test, lasted 3.14 femto-seconds. Or 3.14 quadrillionths of a second. In that time it produced 2.5 megajoules of energy. (2)
Now, there are some challenges that still need to be overcome. Firstly, the NIF isn't a powerplant, there's no way for them to actually harness the energy of a fusion reaction. That's partly why the reaction was so brief, the heat had nowhere to go. (3)
Read 5 tweets
Dec 11, 2022
Since Artemis I has splashed down, I figured I'd give a no BS assessment from am aerospace industry insider (me) on what comes next for Cislunar exploration.

Either late this year or early next year, Astrobotic will attempt a landing on the moon under a NASA contract... (1)
A second landing was planned to deliver NASA's VIPER rover to the Lunar South Pole in November next year, but that mission required the XL-1 lander built by Masten, who went bankrupt this year. Even if Masten's assets are acquired, a completed XL-1 is unlikely in 2023. (2)
2023 will also not see the DearMoon mission fly. I really don't know anyone who takes that mid-2023 launch date seriously. Odds are Starship will complete an uncrewed orbital test flight sometime next year, but we're 2 years away from putting test pilots on board. (3)
Read 15 tweets

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