Thread by @JBelcourt73

So now that the Russian effort has or is about to culminate and its the ZSU turn at bat what would an offensive look like? This is a complex question. Most people want a big offensive that punches through the Russian lines gaining large amounts of liberated territory that

forces the Russian's to retreat or risk encirclement. After all the Russian Army is exhausted and they have not proven very adept at handling forces in a maneuver fight across a wide area. This fits with "western" ideas of what an offensive looks like from Desert Storm.

However, I don't think Ukraine has the level of kit needed for this type of operation. While HIMARS and 155mm tube artillery is aggressively attritting the Russians, behind Russian lines the Russian Air Force is still a major factor. Massed armor invites massed attack. Instead,

I think we will be looking at waves of positional battles where Ukraine isolates a Russian unit, destroys it or forces it to retreat and Ukraine frees up a bite of territory working towards a position where Russia has to counter-attack or risk larger areas becoming unhinged.

Not dissimilar to Russia's own strategy but hopefully better executed and after the Russian logistic capability has gone from bad to worse. The goal being a steady drumbeat of losses and defeats sounding doom, doom, doom on Russia's imperial ambitions until the whole operation

becomes untenable. However, to do this and not pay too high a price in the blood of her own citizens she needs her own stead drumbeat of more, more, more to be answered by the west. This fight is going to be munitions intensive like nothing the world has seen since 1945. The West

must continue its support. Politicians like @JohnBoozman @SenTomCotton and @RepFrenchHill must be reminded every day that we expect them to answer the call, that they have our support as they support Ukraine. That Partisanship is fine for domestic issues, but that the Free

World must be united behind a Free Ukraine until she achieves victory on her terms. Also, I freely admit, I would love to be wrong and to see a massed tank penetration leading to a complete route of the Russians. However, with Germany blocking Leopard 2 deliveries I just don't

see it developing. The T series tanks are simply not capable of sustained offensive operations. The problems I have previously documented with 3 man crews apply to all 3 man crews, Orc and Ukrainian. Maintenace and crew fatigue are real issues that are alleviated by western tanks

using 4 man crews giving them more man hours. Also tactically, I think the Ukrainians still use 3 tank platoons which limits tactical flexibility as well. Then there is the obvious problem of not enough ADA or a Ukrainian air force that cannot penetrate Russia's own defenses to

go deep. Finally, developing the skills to conduct large scale offensive operations takes time and during war time bloody practice and Ukraine is not there yet. Her soldiers and logistics base have been learning how to stop armored offensives not conduct them.

so I think the attacks will remain local with an eye towards a steady rather than rapid push of Russians out of Ukraine. So, if no grand attacks develop but Ukraine continues to inch towards liberation do not lose heart, it's not a sign that Ukraine is losing, just that she

is being deliberate in her planning and execution. In the meantime stay informed via spaces like @walter_report and continue to support your favorite Ukrainian charities like @MriyaAid. and if you are a fella the @georgian_legion Remember this a battle for life over death so it

pain now or pain forever so keep the faith. Slava Ukraini! #RussiaTerroristState #Ukraine️ #UkraineRussiaWar #Arkansas #WeAreNAFO #HIMARSoCLOCK #Fellas

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