With #China’s rise and #Russia’s war, the Pax Americana is over. @FukuyamaFrancis Five scenarios for a new #worldorder are now conceivable. ips-journal.eu/topics/foreign…
1 liberal world order survives end of unipolar American moment 2 wars and revolutions lead to collapse of order 3 great power concert could bring relative stability but fail to tackle global challenges @FESinAsia @fesnewyork @FESonline
4 new cold war partly blocks rule-based multilateral system, but allows for limited cooperation 5 an illiberal order with Chinese characteristics. @CharlesKupchan
The West needs the cooperation of undemocratic powers from Turkey to the Gulf monarchies, from Singapore to Vietnam. The high-minded rhetoric of the systemic rivalry between democracies against autocracies is prone to alienate these much-needed potential allies @USAmbGermany
With a view of containing an aggressive Russia, a rapprochement with China may have its merits. For many in the West, this would require an about-face. @merics_eu @m_huotari
Germany can only survive within the framework of a united #Europe. Economically, it can only prosper in open world markets. For both, a rules-based, #multilateral order is indispensable. Given the intensity of today’s #systemicrivalry, some may doubt its feasibility.
However, it is worth remembering that even at the heyday of the #ColdWar, within the framework of a constrained multilateralism, cooperation based on common interests did occur @schieritz @NathalieTocci
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