Since #copper is on everyone's mind today after @PauloMacro thread, I'm going to highlight 2 tweets from Andrew C, whom correctly called the copper top before it was cool.
1. How much copper China's property market consumes:
1. How much copper China's property market consumes:
https://twitter.com/acosgrove003/status/1443704459826184196
2. Incoming supply:
Unless China goes full retard over stimmies, which is what I think will happen yet has been wrong so far, it's hard to see copper being in deficit until 2024.
Say it with me: China is the ONLY thing that MATTERS
Unless China goes full retard over stimmies, which is what I think will happen yet has been wrong so far, it's hard to see copper being in deficit until 2024.
Say it with me: China is the ONLY thing that MATTERS
https://twitter.com/acosgrove003/status/1410269585371185153
But miners margins are being squeezed & tightness could come faster as marginal producers get priced out. As a wise 🐨 said: "Volatility is the Ally of Quality". The 2024 cliff in supply will ONLY get worse as investors shy away given coppers dramatic price drop!!!
I don't think buying around these parts is such a bad idea if you're a patient investor, but I also struggle to see copper meaningfully rally from here this year unless China stimulus occurs.
My plan is to buy after Summer, after Q2 earnings are priced in. We'll see how it goes!
My plan is to buy after Summer, after Q2 earnings are priced in. We'll see how it goes!
Personally, I find the valuations of NA steel producers far more interesting than most base metals right now. Dirt-cheap, clean b/s & shareholder friendly policies, what's not to like? With input costs falling & steel bottomed out, it's hard to resist BTFD in size!
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