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Emil Baggie.tinkaren Profile picture
Emil Baggie.tinkaren
@Edark94
Swede with an interest in commodities & shipping | Armchair geologist | IR for Pambili Natural Resources $PNN.v | Proud shill of @MySteelGlobal
Dec 31, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
With a couple hours of 2023 to go, here are my 5 top picks for 2024:

1. $AFM.V

No surprise here, eh? With #tin demand starting to recover & production gearing up from Mpama South; it is a no-brainer HODL for the upcoming year with plenty of catalysts to make it move higher! 2. #Copper smallcraps

With producers already having taken a first leg higher, many jrs are still left in the dirt. As we inch closer to $4/lbs, I recko the jrs will be the ones outperforming next! My holdings are currently #JLP #ARCM $EOX.V, with more likely being added soon! Image
Dec 28, 2022 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
So, TL:DR of the mess at MOLT:

Management infighting between the two founders, Lara & Ecclestone. One issue started it, but from there a lot of dirty laundry came out & a "he said/she said" situation erupted. Frankly, high school drama due to egos. The main issue is in regards to the processing plant, using it or another option that came up. Can't speak too much of the situation, but both could work & have their own pros & cons. I'll go into detail once more info comes out.
Aug 20, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
It's been a while since I did a portfolio update, but it will now return weekly as $NAN.v finally relisted to $PNRL.V!

I've had an OK time since then, lots of volatility in oil have kept the gains modest despite the yuge shitco rally! Currently at 111% up YTD! Current portfolio:

It's a rather balanced portfolio with small sizing to reduce volatility, a mix of OSD/OFS/E&P, coal, EU industrials, metals & uranium. Will go back to my old script next week which record changes, but this will do for today!!!
Jul 23, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Since #copper is on everyone's mind today after @PauloMacro thread, I'm going to highlight 2 tweets from Andrew C, whom correctly called the copper top before it was cool.

1. How much copper China's property market consumes: 2. Incoming supply:

Unless China goes full retard over stimmies, which is what I think will happen yet has been wrong so far, it's hard to see copper being in deficit until 2024.

Say it with me: China is the ONLY thing that MATTERS
Jul 21, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Brent down 2.3%. $XLE is down 2.86%, pretty reasonable.

Meanwhile $OIH 🤮🤮🤮 Image This + TSLA ripping 10% today while I sold when it was barely up 2% is kinda tilting ngl
Jun 29, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
If y'all curious why oil stonks are getting whacked, this is probably it. The build in products + very low implied demand from todays double whammy EIA report tells us that demand destruction in the US is sadly very evident...

But it's not all doom & gloom!!! I'm incredibly surprised not more picked up on this dramatic increase of import quotas, second half of the year China crude demand will come ROARING BACK!!!

Will be damn interesting to see if they also plan to expand their export quota 👀
Jun 11, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Looks like my winning streak finally ended, my first weekly loss since 7 weeks back!😭 Down 6% points for the week, current YTD is slightly under 125%.

The mistake made was not taking profits from the copper rally on Monday, silly of me to not expect a retrace afterwards!!! Current portfolio:

Most pain this week came from my copper picks, but I already knew being early means that it will be a bumpy ride! Still a big believer in copper here, as long as May lows hold I'll 💎✋& gladly accept poor performance. Rather early than late with cyclicals!
May 20, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
You degenerate fucks got me into gambling a bit with $BAVA, are y'all happy now???

This monkeypox news spread is sus, seems like it will get picked up by the media over the weekend... trusting the shrub & having cash to avoid nasty surprises on Monday isn't such a bad idea 🧐 BAVA is far too late to enter in size, but congrats to those crazy fucks which bought yday. Think it got some juice left if we get a proper #monkeypox scare over the weekend, so I don't mind punting it for fun...

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
May 14, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
I thought last week was bad, but oh boy this week sure was a rollercoaster. Got absolutely rugged on Monday, made some back Tues/Weds, rugged again on Thursday just to experience FUCK YEAH FRIDAY.

Ended up slightly up for the week, current YTD 91%. Just 3% to go from ATH! 🥳 Current portfolio:

Overtrade a lot, especially with VTNR. Should have just sat on that one... but oh well, made it back by some nice dip buys on Thurs at least, so w/e! Can't be perfect all the time 🥳

Decided to use the rally to distribute my holdings & rebuild my portfolio!
May 5, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Despite everyone calling out oh how shit OSD are, they've done surprisingly well today. Especially relative to energy co & the broad market.

Probably nothing, but interesting observation nonetheless 🧐 Meanwhile uranium:

Looks like the correlation to tech is far greater than energy 😬
May 5, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Well PEXIP got fucked ay lmao. My tech punts are not doing great, but more surprisingly neither are my energy longs. 🧐

But i'm pretty sure we're going r/g today, so I'm not sweating it too much for now 🥳 Uh oh... time to delete all my tweets about being bullish & calling for a bear market rally 😅
Apr 30, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
How fitting that April ended with such a volatile week lol. Did really well on some punts, did atrocious on others! All in all, managed to at least survive! Current YTD is 81.7%, slightly up for the week! April ended up 2.4%, which relative to the market is A-OK for me 😅 Current portfolio:

Notably got 10% cash going into next week as I got pretty worried over how shit the close was & likelihood for more Beijing lockdowns over the weekend crushing my portfolio. Actually raised 20% cash, but couldn't resist nibbling at close 🤣
Apr 29, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Everything we see from China lately SCREAMS of desperation, IMO they have officially gone full panic mode & are DONE fucking their economy. No more squeezing their tech giants, you heard it here first folks!

Massive infrastructure spending is gonna happen, WATCH & LEARN NERDS!!! How to play this you may ask? Drybulk coal iron steel are the ones I've pitched for weeks now. China tech is 💩, but it does appear the bottom is behind us so I might punt some $BABA. It's going 🚀 today, but I reckon they will puke in earnings next week & allow me to BTFD!!!
Apr 28, 2022 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
It's pretty damn funny looking back at all the goldbugs dunking on @SantiagoAuFund for his milkshake theory, yet seeing it finally coming to fruition (while gold has done nothing but constantly disappoint, mind you)

💀 @SantiagoAuFund It's very entertaining to see just how many thought the USD would end up dead & confidently held gold, missing out on the bullmarket of a century.

Just read the comments lmao

Apr 22, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
I'm doing the same despite BTFD yday, the uranium slaughter today makes me VERY uneasy & I need $$$ to BTFD in the rest of my 🤮🤮🤮 portfolio.

I'll be back VERY soon tho, just gotta survive this selloff!!! If y'all wondering what I did, I bought MOAR $ARCH

If it doesn't work the ̶f̶i̶r̶s̶t̶ ̶s̶e̶c̶o̶n̶d̶ ̶t̶h̶i̶r̶d̶ ̶̶̶̶ fourth time, just do it again!!! IT'S EAAAASY!!! Image
Apr 22, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Cut my tankers which survived the sell-off very well, to fund BTFD today again. Topped up $ASTL, bought more coal $ARCH & got a starter position in #Saipem $SPM Fuck being a PUSSY, it's either MELT-UP FUCKING BOOM to the moon or the streets for ya boi!!! Nothing in-between, LFG!!!
Apr 9, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Time for another rather unexciting weekly update! Pretty much a repeat of last week, where my portfolio saw some weakness early on, yet managed to crawl back up & ended up flat regardless! Down around 0.5% points, current YTD is 82.5%! Current portfolio:

Sadly ASTL weighted down on performance this week & I had to make the tough choice to trim it down, so I could afford buying some #TANKERS!!! Added DHT & OET as VLCC rates finally have begun showing life again, looks VERY promising!
Apr 2, 2022 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Saturday morning & time for my weekly update! Rather boring week on my part, had a selloff on Monday but most losses were recouped by the end of the week. Ended up down around 1.6% points, so my current YTD is 83%

No new ATH for me sadly... but I'll cope! 🤭 As I said earlier this week, I think the correct way to survive this headline driven market is by exiting volatile commodity exposure, so decided to cut BTU & EGY! Will be back once we're past the headlines, as ppl will realize commodities remain TIGHT even once the war ends!
Mar 31, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Me & my portfolio of offshore drillers will GLADLY take a 4-10 years floor of $100 for oil, tyvm!!! OSD/OFS thesis is just getting strong & stronger...

Mar 31, 2022 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
Last day of the month & like clockwork, I bought some more $TUN.L 😤

Next month I'll probably add First Tin #1SN to my compounder list, as I continue my no-brainer strategy of betting on the GOAT @METhompson72 leading me to generational wealth. @METhompson72 #1SN starts trading the 8th, so I might miss out on the IPO pump but I'm sure it will be fine as tin is heading to +$100k within a year or two.

Will be damn interesting to see if my dollar cost averaging strategy will outperform my regular portfolio!

Feb 5, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Oh boy look at the time, it's Saturday & time for my weekly update!!! Started the week well, gave back a bit in the middle but managed to climb back up & ended with a 4% gain for the week, 22% gain YTD 🥳

Nothing too impressive, despite oil & coal doing a thing! Got quite the W in my AMZN punt (albeit not even close to as much as I hoped...), but it was just a 2% punt that was partly offset by my FB punt lol.

Sadly had to trim core holdings to fund my gambling, but gonna buy back on weakness!!!