State of Taiwan's Nov 2022 #midterms: the ruling DPP is facing an uphill battle.
There are 22 cities up for grabs. Of which the DPP is only consistently leading in 4. It's either neck-and-neck or losing in the rest....
Repeat: 4/22. The DPP currently governs 7.🧵
This picture will of course change as the campaign goes on, and we need more & better polls, especially on less populous cities that get overlooked by pollsters. /2
But let's not fall for the simple narrative that because: 1) the DPP controls the presidency & legislature, 2) it's done well with recent referenda, and 3) KMT's party identification is in the nadir... /3
and rush to conclude the DPP will definitely cruise to a easy victory at the local level elections, too.
It's unclear if that's how Taiwan's politics works. /4
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A short thread on China's #rhetoric on @SpeakerPelosi's rumored plan to visit Taiwan. So far Beijing's wording has been far below the threshold of the kinds of words & phrases that China historically used for signaling impending war/brinkmanship. /1
@SpeakerPelosi Let's start with MFA spokesperson's recent words: "China will act strongly to resolutely respond to it and take countermeasures. We mean what we say" (中方必將採取有力措施予以堅決應對和反制。我們說到做到) /2
Many observers take 'forceful response' to mean war. That may be overselling it.
Note his key operative words '有力' can mean 'forceful' or 'effective'. If they meant war, they would have said '武力 or 非和平' (military/non-peaceful measures). /3
#Ukraine crisis demonstrates that intense Western military aid and economic sanctions, can make a difference, even in conflicts involving a military great power.
This will impact future discussions about US posture of ‘Strategic Ambiguity’ on #Taiwan. /1
Recent discussion focuses on diminishing US military superiority vis-à-vis China in the Indo-Pacific, and how US must therefore move towards ‘Strategic Clarity’ in order to boost deterrence. /2
Assuming Ukraine holds, if even indirect Western intervention proves sufficient to help hold off a great power invasion, then it will make Beijing think twice about military adventurism. /3