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Charles Gaba ✡️ Profile picture
@charles_gaba
Jul 26, 2022 • 55 tweets • 20 min read • Read on X
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📣🚨 How much more will #ACA enrollees pay in 2023 if #AmRescuePlan subsidies *aren't* extended?

Here's a breakout by CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT across 33 states + DC:
acasignups.net/22/07/14/congr…
ALABAMA: Up to ~220,000 enrollees face premium hikes of 65% on average.

That's $62/month or $750/year apiece.
ALASKA: Up to ~23,000 enrollees face premium hikes of 62% on average.

That's $97/month or $1169/year apiece.
ARIZONA: Up to ~200,000 enrollees face premium hikes of 38% on average.

That's $69/mo or $830/yr apiece.
ARKANSAS: Up to ~88,000 enrollees face premium hikes of 54% on average.

That's $73/month or $872/year apiece.
CALIFORNIA: Up to 1.5 MILLION enrollees face premium hikes of 82% on average.

That's $92/month or $1,100/year on average.

CA has their own state subsidies which would help mitigate *some* of this but not nearly enough.
COLORADO: Unfortunately i don't have Congressional District data for CO, but statewide up to ~186,000 enrollees face premium hikes of as much as $847/month or over $10,000/year per household.

acasignups.net/22/06/29/state…
CONNECTICUT: Unfortunately I don't have Congressional District data for CT, but statewide up to ~105,000 enrollees face premium hikes of as much as $1,771/month or over $21,000/year per household.

acasignups.net/22/06/29/state…
DELAWARE: Up to ~32,000 enrollees are facing average premium hikes of 60%.

That's $101/month or $1,210/year apiece.
FLORIDA: Up to ~2.72 MILLION enrollees would face average premium hikes of 61%.

That's $49/month or $588/year apiece.
GEORGIA: Up to ~700,000 enrollees would face average premium hikes of 47%.

That's $50/month or $597/year apiece.
HAWAII: Up to ~22,000 enrollees would face average premium hikes of 43%.

That's $71/month or $853/year apiece.
IDAHO: Unfortunately I don't have Congressional District data for ID, but statewide up to ~68,000 enrollees face premium hikes of as much as $1,384/month or over $16,600/year per household.

acasignups.net/22/06/29/state…
ILLINOIS: Up to ~323,000 enrollees would face premium hikes of 38%.

That's $78/month or $930/year apiece.
INDIANA: Up to ~156,000 enrollees would face premium hikes of 38% on average.

That's $73/month or $875/year apiece.
IOWA: Up to ~72,000 enrollees would face premium hikes of 72% on average.

That's $97/month or $1,165/year apiece.
KANSAS: Up to ~107,000 enrollees would face premium hikes of 44% on average.

That's $65/month or $786/year apiece.
KENTUCKY: Unfortunately I don't have Congressional District data for KY, but statewide up to ~69,000 enrollees face premium hikes of as much as $1,178/month or over $14,000/year per household.
acasignups.net/22/06/29/state…
LOUISIANA: Up to ~99,000 enrollees are facing premium hikes of 54% on average.

That's $85/month or $1,019/year apiece.
MAINE: Unfortunately I don't have Congressional District data for ME, but statewide up to ~62,000 enrollees face premium hikes of as much as $1,320/month or over $15,800/year per household.
acasignups.net/22/06/29/state…
MARYLAND: Unfortunately I don't have Congressional District data for MD, but statewide up to ~170,000 enrollees face premium hikes of as much as $929/month or over $11,100/year per household.
acasignups.net/22/06/29/state…
MASSACHUSETTS: Unfortunately I don't have Congressional District data for MA, but statewide up to ~251,000 enrollees face premium hikes of as much as $696/month or over $8,300/year per household.
acasignups.net/22/06/29/state…
MICHIGAN: Up to 303,000 enrollees are facing rate hikes of 39% on average.

That's $66/month or $795/year on average.
MINNESOTA: Unfortunately I don't have Congressional District data for MN, but statewide up to ~114,000 enrollees face premium hikes of as much as $684/month or over $8,200/year per household.
acasignups.net/22/06/29/state…
MISSISSIPPI: Up to 143,000 enrollees would face rate hikes of 67% on average.

That's $48/month or $576/year apiece.
MISSOURI: Up to 250,000 enrollees would face rate hikes of 50% on average.

That's $68/month or $819/year apiece.
MONTANA: UP to 51,000 enrollees would face rate hikes of 58% on average.

That's $83/month or $994/year on average.
NEBRASKA: Up to 99,000 enrollees would face rate hikes of 81% on average.

That's $98/month or $1,176/year apiece.
NEVADA: Unfortunately I don't have Congressional District data for NV, but statewide up to ~95,000 enrollees face premium hikes of as much as $956/month or over $11,400/year per household.
acasignups.net/22/06/29/state…
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Up to ~52,000 enrollees are facing rate hikes of 28% on average.

That's $60/month or $722/year apiece.
NEW JERSEY: Unfortunately I don't have Congressional District data for NJ, but statewide up to ~304,000 enrollees face premium hikes of as much as $846/month or over $10,000/year per household.
acasignups.net/22/06/29/state…
NEW MEXICO: Unfortunately I don't have Congressional District data for NM, but statewide up to ~42,000 enrollees face premium hikes of as much as $918/month or over $11,000/year per household.
acasignups.net/22/06/29/state…
NEW YORK: 199,000 enrollees face premium hikes of 58% on average.

That's $121/month or $1,453/year on average.
NORTH CAROLINA: Unfortunately, I don't have the Congressional District breakout, but statewide, ~670,000 enrollees are looking at 66% rate hikes on average.

That's $63/month or $762/year apiece.
NORTH DAKOTA: Up to 29,000 enrollees are facing rate hikes of 80% on average.

That's $80/month or $957/year apiece.
OHIO: Up to 260,000 enrollees are facing rate hikes of 29%.

That's $68/month or $813/year apiece.
OKLAHOMA: Up to 189,000 enrollees are facing rate hikes of 65% on average.

That's $60/month or $722/year apiece.
OREGON: Up to 146,000 enrollees are facing rate hikes of 41% on average.

That's $82/month or $986/year apiece.
PENNSYLVANIA: Unfortunately I don't have Congressional District data for PA, but statewide up to ~352,000 enrollees face premium hikes of as much as $869/month or over $10,400/year per household.
acasignups.net/22/06/29/state…
RHODE ISLAND: Unfortunately I don't have Congressional District data for RI, but statewide up to ~30,000 enrollees face premium hikes of as much as $1,000/month or nearly $12,000/year per household.
acasignups.net/22/06/29/state…
SOUTH CAROLINA: ~300,000 enrollees are facing rate hikes of 56% on average.

That's $60/mo or $721/year apiece.
SOUTH DAKOTA: ~41,000 enrollees are facing rate hikes of 96% on average.

That's $87/month or $1,044/year apiece.
TENNESSEE: ~273,000 enrollees are facing rate hikes of 47% on average.

That's $60/month or $720/year apiece.
TEXAS: Up to 1.84 MILLION enrollees are facing premium rate hikes of 55% on average.

That's $47/month or $564/year apiece.
UTAH: Up to 256,000 enrollees are facing premium rate hikes of 86% on average.

That's $53/mont or $636/year apiece.
VERMONT: Unfortunately I don't have Congressional District data for VT, but statewide up to ~25,000 enrollees face premium hikes of as much as $791/month or over $9,400/year per household.
acasignups.net/22/06/29/state…
VIRGINIA: Up to 308,000 enrollees are facing premium hikes of 56% on average.

That's $71/month or $852/year apiece.
WASHINGTON STATE: Unfortunately I don't have Congressional District data for WA, but statewide up to ~225,000 enrollees face premium hikes of as much as $1,113/month or over $13,300/year per household.
acasignups.net/22/06/29/state…
WEST VIRGINIA: 23,000 enrollees are facing rate hikes of 63% on average.

That's $127/month or $1,527/year apiece.
WISCONSIN: 212,000 enrollees are facing rate hikes of 56% on average.

That's $90/month or $1,078/year apiece.
WYOMING: 34,000 enrollees are facing rate hikes of 132% on average. That's not a typo.

That's $116/month or $1,390/year apiece.
📣 It's important to note that all of the above numbers and averages are based on *2022* premiums.

If you earn over 4x the poverty level, your *2023* premiums will likely be ~8.5% higher ON TOP OF that if the #AmRescuePlan subsidies aren't extended: acasignups.net/22/07/19/updat…
NOTE: If the subsidy extension doesn't make it this year, it's still possible that it can be done retroactively next year...but only if Democrats keep control of the House & keep (& hopefully BUILD on) our majority in the Senate.

You can help here...
secure.actblue.com/donate/senateb…
...and here... secure.actblue.com/donate/housebl…
...and here: secure.actblue.com/donate/housebl…

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More from @charles_gaba

Charles Gaba ✡️ Profile picture
Nov 10
Here's an updated version of my "Dem Stop the Steal!" conspiracy theory thread which hopefully is less scattershot.

There's 3 main claims:

1. "How could there be 20M fewer voters than in 2020 w/"record-breaking turnout?"

2. "How could 15M fewer voter for Harris vs. Biden?"
3. "How could so many swing state voters vote for the Dem for Senate but not for Harris for POTUS?"

There's a few others, but these are the biggest ones, so let's tackle them first:
1. There weren't 20M fewer voters.

I've been compiling the data as it's being updated by CNN's tracking center via a Google spreadsheet. As of this writing, total POTUS turnout is ~147.6M, or ~10.8M lower than 2020's 158.4M.

cnn.com/election/2024/…

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Read 46 tweets
Charles Gaba ✡️ Profile picture
Nov 8
Yesterday I posted a thread digging into the actual data behind the "20M missing votes!" and "15M fewer than Biden!" conspiracy theories being tossed around the past few days.

I've updated my spreadsheet using the latest data from CNN:
cnn.com/election/2024/…Image
Short Version:

Via CNN, as of this writing, total 2024 POTUS votes are only down 13.9 million vs. 2020...with a likely 11.5 - 12.0 million ballots still to be counted across 30 states.

Total 2024 turnout will likely be ~156M or so...just a couple million fewer than 2020.
Again, using CNN's data & estimates, once every legitimate ballot has been counted, Trump will likely have around ~78 million votes to Harris' 75-76 million.

That'd mean he added ~4 million vs 2020 while she lost ~5-6 million.

Both of these would still suck, of course.
Read 14 tweets
Charles Gaba ✡️ Profile picture
Nov 3
As the guy who obsessed over precisely this data for nearly 3 years, let me address this:

My best estimate is that around 150,000 more Trump 2020 voters than Biden 2020 voters died between Nov. 2020 & Nov. 2022.

That's a lot of people. HOWEVER... 1/

acasignups.net/22/09/17/eleph…
...the vast majority of this discrepancy happened in districts/counties which were heavily red to begin with, which is why the MAGA COVID Death Cult factor only ended up making a decisive difference in exactly one statewide race: Arizona Attorney General:
acasignups.net/22/12/29/updat…
At the House district level it didn't make a decisive difference in any races at all. To understand why, let's look at two extreme examples...

acasignups.net/22/12/13/updat…
Read 10 tweets
Charles Gaba ✡️ Profile picture
Oct 31
People have started asking why I'm still pushing fundraising for Dems just 5 days before Election Day. All the ad time has been purchased & the lit pieces printed & mailed out already, right?

There's several reasons: 1/
1. For state legislative races in particular, a last-minute cash infusion of even $50 can mean an extra few pizzas for tired & hungry canvassers or an extra burner phone for phone banking.

Blue24.org/state-leg
2. After the polls close, there's going to no doubt be some races which require recounts...which may or may not have to be paid for by the campaign requesting it, depending on the state and the margin. That's gonna cost money.

Blue24.org/endgame
Read 4 tweets
Charles Gaba ✡️ Profile picture
Oct 31
🧵THE DEAD POOL: Since @MikeJohnson and @JDVance are promising to Concentrate folks w/pre-existing conditions into separate Camps, let's talk about that. 1/
acasignups.net/24/10/04/dead-…
Let's go back to the pre-ACA healthcare landscape. This is what it looked like in 2012...*before* the ACA's major provisions went into effect.

Half the US had employer coverage. Another third had Medicare or Medicaid. ~11M had "individual" insurance; ~48M had nothing at all. 2/ Image
The ACA had 2 main goals:

1. Reduce the number of uninsured Americans as much as possible by making coverage more affordable & accessible;

2. Provide protections from insurance industry abuses, *especially* for the individual market where the abuses were the most blatant. 3/
Read 40 tweets
Charles Gaba ✡️ Profile picture
Oct 6
(sigh) OK, here we go again: Trump's Butler, PA rally crowd size.

Here's the best aerial view shot I've seen of the crowd at its peak. (the arrow shows the stage). 1/ Image
A standard dry U.S. trailer van is around 53' long. 2/
schneiderjobs.com/blog/semi-truc…
As it happens, the aerial shot shows several presumably standard trailer vans lined up neatly in a row just outside the perimeter in the lower right.

By copying & pasting one of them, it looks like the venue runs around 7 trailer vans x 4 trailer vans. 3/ Image
Read 9 tweets

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