Thread by @VolodyaTretyak

Igor Girkin update on the front situation from 26.07:

"Kharkiv Front - positional and local battles.
Izyum Front (Sloviansk direction) - the same.

Seversk-Soldar-Bakhmut (Artemovsk) front - local battles with tactical (in some places) insignificant advance of our troops...

Seversk and surrounding heights remain in enemy hands.
Directly to the outskirts of Soledar and Bakhmut, our troops have not yet reached. At the southern end, the enemy is forced to move out of the ledge near the Uglegorsk thermal power plant and the Novoluganskoye village.

As of yesterday evening, our forces haven't established complete control over both of these points, although their further retention for a long time for the enemy is difficult, and he will be forced to leave them soon.

Basically, at the location mentioned above, there is a slow displacement (mainly due to the significant superiority of the RF Armed Forces in artillery in this direction) of the AFU units from the second main line of defense, located along the line mentioned above.

The pace of the advance makes it impossible to hope that - without stepping up the efforts - it will be possible to reach the borders of the DPR not only by the end of August but also by the end of September.

The front from Horlivka to the southern tip of Donetsk remains unchanged. Positional battles, exchange of artillery, and missile strikes. Early this morning, the AFU launched another missile and artillery strike on Donetsk, destroying targets in the oil depot area.

Zaporizhzhya front - positional fighting.
The enemy is probing our defensive positions in the Volnovakha direction, in the direction of Polohy. This area might be the possible direction of the auxiliary offensive of the AFU.

Kherson Front:
After unsuccessful attacks on our positions to the southeast and south of Kryvyi Rih, the AFU continues to build up forces on the entire front of the Right Bank bridgehead of the AFU. Currently, fierce artillery shelling of our troops' forward and rear positions...

...and attempts at aerial attacks are taking place daily. AFU attacks ammunition depots, air defense positions, and transport and supply facilities. Our troops are actively responding, seeking to disrupt the concentration of enemy strike groups.

I expect an enemy offensive soon in the direction (conditional line) of Kryvyi Rih - Beryslav - with access to the dam near Novaya Kakhovka; in the direction directly to Kherson from the northwest and northeast directions.

The enemy may attempt to dissect our bridgehead by crossing the Ingulets River in the center of our positions.

General points: The AFU continues to increase rocket fire on rear transport hubs, air defense positions, and artillery in the near rear of Russian forces in the Donbas, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions, paying particular attention to critical bridges...

on the Dnipro (there are two in total) in the hope of disabling them. The Russian Air Force markedly intensified air strikes against AFU facilities in the southern section of the front. Russian artillery has noticeably improved its support of our forward units.

Rocket strikes against targets in the frontline zone of the southern front also markedly intensified.

Conclusion:

Despite some positive changes in artillery and aviation support of the ground forces, the Russian Armed Forces, in essence, are LOSSING INITIATIVE to the AFU leadership, preparing to end the operational pause with a defensive rather than offensive battle.

The most likely theater of this battle will be the southern front (Kherson-Zaporizhia). For any large-scale offensive action, the Russian command does not have the main thing - sufficient human resources.

Perhaps the bet is placed on the defeat of AFU forces in the defensive battle - at the expense of air superiority and some advantage in artillery. With the subsequent transition to a counteroffensive.

Possibly, the displacement of the enemy from the DNR territory and the failure in the south will force Kyiv to call a truce (in my opinion - if there is such hope - it is initially false and utterly idiotic, but it is pretty probable, unfortunately).

On the part of the AFU, and offensive - a "battle for the initiative" - seems to be the only logical step, both from a purely military and military-political point of view.

Time will tell how accurate the forecasts and assumptions are. For the time being, the operational pause is continuing. But its time will soon expire."

Reminder: Igor Girkin is a terrorist and war criminal despite being able to provide exciting insights.
/end of the thread

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I have also translated his predictions from the day before, 25.07:

https://twitter.com/VolodyaTretyak/status/1551867471208095745?s=20&t=b3pZ3wvANHpVeiYsO-rUtA