2⃣ As with previous important publications about the origins topic, the first response from #conspiratorial thinkers is to ridicule, downplay and denigrate the studies and scientists involved (with absurd falsehoods and ad hominems)
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We have seen this pattern before, directed at independent scientists who contributed to the origins literature; and there are many
The goal of these personal attacks is to make life miserable for scientists who speak out, to get them to shut up or leave social media completely
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This is of course not unique to #scientists, this is a silencing tactic (sometimes called Heckler's veto: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heckler%2…) often employed by trolls and other motivated actors against public figures, from journalists to doctors to political advocates...
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Notice that despite the emotive language, there is no substance or nuance to these attacks, just a mixture of handwaving denial about #published scientific studies coupled with insults about the author's intellectual ability and their moral character.
This is not sustainable.
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The insults and handwaving is a panic response to keep people #distracted while a crew of motivated lableak content creators is working to come up with #talkingpoints on how to explain away the #evidence.
This is an interesting process worth paying attention too:
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When evidence emerged about how RATG13 (or any other known Coronavirus) could not have been used a 'template' for creating SC2 because of its recombinant mosaic genome 🔽, many lableak fantasies had to give up that talking point and find new ones. 7/ ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
The same thing happened when Temman et al. nature.com/articles/s4158… found the closest humanACE2-binding RBD-domain in #bats in Laos, proving such human-binding domains exists in #nature and are not product of genetic #engineering.
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In both circumstances, #lableakers did not adjust the likelihoods of their belief into a lableak, instead, they created what experts call 'epicycles'; basically expanding the #conspiratorial ideation to include further cover-ups to account for these facts.
Concretely, they
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had to make up an additional 'cover-up story' about WIV possessing troves of 'unknown viruses' that could have served as a 'template' for engineering, as well as include the dubious assertions about how the WIV actually got Laos virus samples via EcoHealth alliance.
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This is of course very common with conspiratorial ideation and what makes many conspiracy theories unfalsifiable; when evidence comes out to the contrary, the conspiracy gets expanded.
Now with the current science papers, I assume a very similar process will happen.
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But we are not there yet, and because no common 'new narrative' has been widely adopted by lableakers, I expect we will see a lot of very weird and convoluted explanations coming out from lableak the next few days... (continued)
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@janeqiuchina shows again a great sense of independent reporting on the origins; with a critical eye towards remaining uncertainties and of course the problematic nature of wildlife trade worldwide.
I have one little criticism about the room given to Kumar et al.'s study, 1/
which gives the (in my opinion) false impression that it is a coin-toss whether there were one or two zoonotic introductions. Scientific dissent does not imply that false equivalency.
Pekar vs Kumar phylogenetic methodologies are hard to compare because they do very different
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things, and one of the methods (Pekar) is clearly superior for the question at hand (rooting to identify ancestors) and consistent with all other evidence, whereas the other is not.
@Samuel_Gregson and I have talked to independent phylogenetic experts that were not involved
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Surprise surprise, the new paperback of their book is out and @mattwridley and @Ayjchan find it in their hearts to self-promote shamelessly once again by alarmist language, blatant lies, misrepresentations, and panic-mongering.
Let's have a look at the content, shall we? 1/
Matt and Alina like to paint themselves as 'the brave truthseekers' against the establishment, in order to position themselves like that, they have to tell some convenient lies, for example, that there is no 'real interest' by the establishment to investigate.
I'd like to see 2/
the evidence for that, because as far as I can tell, just last week they bragged about how EVERYBODY in the ESTABLISHMENT from WHO, US government to G7 is calling for investigations.
Certainly curious to frame this as 'interest disappeared, but good for book sales, I guess 3/
for her, it is mostly about using dramatic and alarmist language to get attention for her self-serving ends, in this case probably for her book which just released in paperback
I do not for one second believe she herself would gamble her life on lableak evidence.
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But let's do the absurd thought experiment:
If somebody forced me to gamble my life based on scientific evidence, I'd take zoonosis over lableak every time, no question.
It's like a difference in survival odds compared to jumping out of a plane with or without parachute.
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In entirely predictable fashion, the #lableak conspiracy monster eats their own, as Alina Chan now gets to experience by not being full on board with the latest fantasy about the UNC 'cover up' of the ENAC FCS. 🙄 1/
Because lableak is driven by attention mechanisms, LARPing and other social media dynamics, any influencer has to be fully on board of the gravy train to not loose their audience. But because the audience overlaps so hard with other anti-government conspiracy crowds, lableak
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becomes more and more merged with the US goverment as the key conspirator, despite the outbreak starting in Wuhan.
Conspiracy theories often reflect the specific biases of the people who believe them, and under Trump, China was more of a concern to rightwingers than their Gov.
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Debating liars is pointless, as @GidMK nicely points out. However, counterspeech is important, so is not ceding the public sphere to the most engaging liars.
So please people, ask for scientific evidence, not for debate.
I will go one further: public debates over a contoversial scientific topic (like a scientist vs a crank) are often counterproductive to public understanding, because it creates a false equivalency between speakers. We know this from climate scientists, putting them up against
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a climate change denier completely distorts the scientific consensus on the issue, making it appear as if both sides have worthy points, or worse, as if both sides enbody a valid opinion to hold and the 'science' is just too uncertain to act upon.
This is of course lunacy.
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I think @Ayjchan is a pernicious influencers who lies, smears and misrepresents scientists constantly to push her own self-serving agenda.
But on top of that, she seems to be a bad scientist too. By her definition, every fantasy should be treated as if true until disproved. 1/
This is of course not how science works, because science works with evidence.
Saying "there is no evidence for alternative hypothesis X" is paramount to the scientific process, especially when there is TONS of EVIDENCE about a particular topic that is inconsistent with X ⬇️ 2/
The idea that every made up thought castle needs to be disproved scientifically to be ruled out is absurd.
Science doesn't try to disprove invisible, immaterial spirit unicorns that hide under Alina Chan's blanket either, just because she believes them to be there.