A new video posted by @rudaw reveals new information on a possible weapon and firing location that killed nine Iraqi tourists in a tourist resort, north of Zakho, Iraqi Kurdistan. A small #OSINT thread with some findings 🧵1/ rudaw.net/english/kurdis…
First, one of the shots shows a wide-area view of this area where in the last years new Turkish/KRG military bases were set-up in the fight against the PKK, also featured in @SimonaFoltyn excellent piece for @NewsHourpbs.org/newshour/show/… h/t @obretix 2/ for geolocation
Then a first time image of a munition remnant, showing the fin of a mortar, identified by @CalibreObscura as a possible Turkish MKE MOD 214 81mm mortar. More images are needed to be sure. But was it there already or recently fired? That's unclear 3/x urunler.mke.gov.tr/Urunler/81-mm-…
Oddly, seems like some rope is tied around this piece of metal/rock in front of the tail fin. Was it an older piece placed there, an IED? Lots of known unknowns. But we have at least some certainty its a 81mm mortar round visible. We now need to know where it's coming from: 4/x
The video shows a zoom-out from the mortar where it landed, which we can use to geolocate this image. Using both Google Earth Pro and Peakvisor, we find a pretty good match at this location 5/x satellites.pro/Iraq_map#37.27…
So where could this mortar potentially be coming from? There are a range of Turkish bases on the border and inside the KRG build in the last few years, which lead to outcry of local communities cause of the massive forest clearance, show in our 2021 @PAXforpeace overview 6/x
But there are military positions (in blue) at the border where Turkey has 155mm artillery placed (inside KRG is red). The Iraqi gov claims they have remnants of 155mm rounds, that was fired from a distance of 7-8km from the tourist spot. Let's check: 7/x facebook.com/Tacticiq/posts…
There are a couple of Turkish bases within the 7-8km range. We pulled up the latest MAXAR high-resolution satellite imagery of three bases on June 29, 2022 but could not spot any artillery nor any artillery set-up on those dates. Also, unlikely positions as its remote uphill 8/x
There are however 155mm M114 and T-155 artillery positions visible on sat images at the TR border, roughly 8 and 10km away from strike site h/t @obretix. Maybe at other locations too be we don't have recent sat images of that, so that remains a possibility. Back to the 81mm 9/x
In this panorama view of the 81mm mortar the angle indicates the munition likely came from the north. There we have one Turkish military outpost that has direct sight at the village and the area where mortar round can be seen. 10/x
So in sum, what can we learn from #OSINT? We can see that there is an possible Turkish 81mm mortar in the video. Was this fired on the day? We can't be certain. There is a Turkish base within firing range (5800m for 81mm round) so that's a possibility at least 11/x
We also learned that Iraq claims a 155mm artillery round was responsible, and we can see there is are least two TR bases with 155mm artillery in shooting range, and that 3 nearby bases don't seem to have 155mm 12/x.
In sum, different facts are being claimed: Turkey says its a PKK attack, Iraq states its 155mm artillery, and footage shows 81mm mortar.
A transparent and robust investigation is needed to hold the perpetrators accountable and provide remedies to victims news.un.org/en/story/2022/…
PS: According to Turkish-weapon expert @kemal_115 is more likely that the M-114 155mm are to be M101 or M116 howitzers. Noted and thanks for the feedback!
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Fighting continues in the heavily industrialized #Donbass region of #Ukraine around the town of Novogorodske, or better know as 'New York', hosting a massive phenol chemical plant that is posing a huge environmental risk. A short thread: 1/x
The chemical plant is producing phenol, a flammable, highly corrosive chemical. The site itself hosted large quantities prior to the invasion, while toxic waste is stored in three nearby ponds. We flagged these risks in this 2017 @bellingcat piece 2/x
The location faced shelling and destruction since 2014, already resulting in fires at the toxic waste pond. We visited the location with @3Bergen in 2018 where the operator and nearby civilians shared the concerns over a massive chemical incidents from shelling 3/x
The war is turning #Gaza into rotting garbage dumpsite as the destruction continues. We have launched a new report drawing on satellite imagery and #OSINT to visualize the scale the of solid waste and linked public health crisis. A small thread 1/x 🧵 paxforpeace.nl/news/war-torn-…
Prior to Oct 7, the #Gaza Strip was already facing enormous problems with solid waste management, despite initiatives by the @WorldBank to construct safe landfills. Illegal waste dumps and waste fires contributed to environmental stressors for nearby communities 2/x
The destruction and massive displacement since the start of Israel's military campaign caused a massive garbage crisis: waste management collapsed, vehicles destroyed, official landfills closed and waste pilling up in the streets from October onward. 3/x
The devastation brought upon #Gaza's urban and rural environment by Israel after the brutal Hamas attacks is making large parts uninhabitable, a new @PAXforpeace
report shows. The massive damage is also posing long-term public health risks. A thread: 1/x paxforpeace.nl/news/israels-b…
The wide-scale destruction of urban areas is creating millions of tons of conflict-rubble, often mixed with toxic waste, and damaged hazardous facilities posing extra public and env health risks. We used @unosat
/@JamonVDH/@coreymaps data for damage, and #OSINT for facilities 2/x
Hundreds of types of water facilities have been damaged/ destroyed, worsening public health risks. Throughout #Gaza water wells, desalination plants, pumping systems are affected, while it was already struggling water shortage prior to the escalation 3/x
The level of urban destruction by the use of #explosiveweapons in populated areas such as #Gaza is significant. Beyond the civilians casualties, this also leaves millions of tons of rubble, posing additional environmental health risks. New @Maxar img from Oct 21, Al Karameh 1/x
Here the damage at Beit Hanoun in northern #Gaza showing a complete neighborhood being almost completely demolished from bombardments 2/x
And here at Atatra in northern #Gaza with complete buildings collapsed from airstrikes. Building materials often contain hazardous materials and debris often mixed with industrial or other types of hazardous waste and UXOs 3/x
And toxic ghost from the past appears as DoD approvs #depleteduranium export to Ukraine: despite US overstating the case, the use of DU would only complicate conflict-pollution in #Ukraine and counters the global norm against its use 1/x wsj.com/articles/u-s-s…
What past wars showed was that DU was not decisive. In the Gulf Wars, most tanks were destroyed with Hellfires and Maverick missiles. Tungsten rounds still are able to destroy Russian tanks, and DU was no silver bullet. 2/x wise-uranium.org/pdf/dumyths.pdf
What our @PAXforpeace research in #Iraq found was that the US was uninterested in clean-up and remediation of DU and contaminated materials, putting civilians at risk of exposure, in particular children playing on tanks and scrapmetal workers. 3/x paxforpeace.nl/wp-content/upl…
Open question with regard to the #Kakhovka flood impacts is to what kinds of pollutants were present on industrial locations that were swept away and create additional pollution risks. One example is the Kherson Oil Depot, southwest of the city 1/x
Another area of concerns is the industrial area south, hosting various construction facilities that are storing different types of hazardous substances. Satellite imagery by @planet indicates there are pollutants in the water 2/x
South of the city is the shipyard, which usually stores a range of hazardous substances including different types of oil, LPG, solvents and and cleaning agents. Some ships also were swept away or capsized by the flooding 3/x