Mick Ryan, AM Profile picture
Jul 29, 2022 17 tweets 7 min read Read on X
In the last day or so, a video showing Russian soldiers conducting a hideous and repulsive act against a defenceless Ukrainian prisoner of war has circulated. While I will not amplify this, I wanted to provide some thoughts. 1/15 🧵 Image
2/ First, from a purely human level, I am sickened that one human will do this to another. It is a depraved and inhuman act - there is nothing that justifies it.
3/ Second, as a soldier, it breaks my heart to see a fellow soldier - now a non-combatant - being treated in such a way. No soldier deserves such disgusting treatment.
4/ Third, the Geneva Conventions protect such individuals. There are many good reasons for this, which I should not need to describe here. But you can read the 1949 Geneva Convention relative to the Treatment of Prisoners of War here: ohchr.org/en/instruments…
5/ Fourth, this behavior by the Russian soldiers is further evidence (as if we needed any more) that the Russian Army is professionally corrupt & morally bankrupt. The entire Russian Army chain of command, because of the leadership environment they have nurtured, is responsible.
6/ An army that either explicitly (or implicitly) permits such behavior will never be capable of fighting as an effective and cohesive force. Wars still have rules. An army that operates with an ‘anything goes’ ethos is just not an army. It is an armed group of criminals.
7/ This is why the study of the profession of arms, #ethics, and the profound responsibility of exercising lethal force on behalf of one’s nation, is such an important area of study and indoctrination in military institutions.
8/ And it is the responsibility of our political leaders to also understand these imperatives - because they must hold soldiers to account for their behavior. And to do that, they must know what right looks like in a professional and ethical military institution.
9/ Fifth, this - like all the atrocities committed by the Russians in #Ukraine - can be tracked back to the statements by Putin about Ukraine not being a real country. This is part of the dehumanization process that clearly pervades down the entire chain of command.
10/ There will be many calling for the ‘elimination’ of those responsible. I understand this impulse. But as a soldier, I cannot agree with it. These murderous scumbags must be tried and made an example of, so that others know we will never allow them to get away with it. Never.
11/ We can’t go down the path of rough justice or retribution. Remember, there is a reason Ukraine is fighting for its sovereignty, and why we are supporting it. They are fighting for their existence, and for a world where such acts are not permitted nor tolerated.
12/ My heart goes out to the family and fellow soldiers of the victim of this disgusting act. The pain they will be feeling now is immeasurable. I want to express my sympathies to them.
13/ There will be some that might take issue with my stance. But, as the (retired) soldier of a democracy, this is the only approach that a member of the profession of arms can take. All else results in chaos, and a continuous chain of revenge, unethical and inhumane acts.
14/ Should the perpetrator of this subsequently be killed in combat - well, that’s life. And if he is, I hope he burns in hell. But if captured, bring him to justice, and show the world that even in war, armies of democracies believe in rules & holding transgressors to account.
15/ And it goes without saying - we need to provide as much physical and moral support to #Ukraine as we possibly can. The West needs to do all it can for the courageous Ukrainians to defeat Russia as quickly as possible. End.

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More from @WarintheFuture

Apr 13
Iran is attacking #Israel directly. Normally content with employing proxies to do its dirty work for it, Iran is currenlty launching what appears to be a multi-wave aerial attack with drones and missiles. What might this mean? 1/10
2/ The U.S. has stated that it will defend Israel, and has the military assets in the region to contribute to this mission. We also might see a rapid airlift of air defence missiles and other materiel from the U.S. to Israel.
3/ Besides direct attacks from Iran, the Iranians may also call on its proxies to launch concurrent attacks to overwhelm Israeli sensors, C2 and decision making.
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Apr 11
One of my big takeaways from my latest #Ukraine visit is the need to change strategy. Current war strategy is focussed on 'defending Ukraine'. This is now a strategy for defeat and must evolve. 1/10 🧵🇺🇦
lowyinstitute.org/the-interprete…
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2/ It is clear that the strategy of #Ukraine and its partners must evolve to 'defeat Russia in Ukraine'. This is hardly a new insight (I have published on this topic in Foreign Affairs). But the grim situation at present demands an urgent shift in strategy, and a revised Ukrainian theory of victory.
3/ Russia has recovered psychologically from the shock of its early military failures. The Russian president and his government possess a renewed sense of optimism about the trajectory of Russian operations.
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Mar 30
The increasing use of drone v drone warfare in #Ukraine has been a trend long in development. Earlier, we have seen aerial drones take out other aerial drones, as well as recover downed enemy drones. 1/15 🧵🇺🇦
2/ With the increasing deployment of uncrewed ground combat vehicles, there will be more and UAV v UGV combat similar to that in the video as well as UGV v UGV. At this point in their development, however, UGV remain slow and vulnerable to attack by humans and UAV.
3/ But, the battlefield adaptation cycle will slowly change this. Not only will individual UGV increasingly have lower visual and electronic signatures, they will be used in larger numbers. The pace of change in the relevant technologies makes this almost inevitable.
Read 15 tweets
Mar 24
Ukraine reinforces that Crimea is still on the agenda, and that they retain an objective of making the presence of the Russian military there untenable. But this is part of a wider, adaptive strategic strike program. 1/7 🧵
2/ This is also another illustration of the sophisticated collection, analysis, planning and execution capabilities of Ukraine’s evolving strategic strike system, which uses both Western and indigenous missiles and drones.
3/ The Crimea strike campaign, along with the degradation of Russian oil refining capacity, appear to remain the two highest priorities for the maturing Ukrainian strategic strike complex.
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The Putin re-election campaign is now complete. What might this mean for Russian military #strategy as we shift into the northern spring and summer? 1/22 🧵🇺🇦
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2/ Clearly, the main effort will remain its campaign to subjugate Ukraine by degrading and destroying its tactical forces, conducting strike operations against operational, strategic and civilian targets, and its ongoing diplomatic and strategic influence operations.
3/ For several months, the Russians have been conducting tactical actions to advance in the east and south of #Ukraine. Some are opportunistic, taking advantage of Ukrainian force / arty shortfalls and terrain.
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Mar 6
An interesting account of a recent Ukrainian attack against a Russian warship in the Black Sea. Like many elements of how technologies, strategies and tactics are constantly evolving in this war, there are some important strategic takeaways. 1/11 🧵
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2/ First, this adds to the evidentiary case for western navies to accelerate their investigation and investment in these systems. While many nations can build large warships, just about every nation can construct these smaller, low-signature attack drones.
3/ The key of course is getting the balance right between large, exquisite warships & smaller, uncrewed vessels. For middle sized powers, large numbers of smaller uncrewed vessels like these are a great economy of force capability, which can be built anywhere and evolved quickly.
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