In the last day or so, a video showing Russian soldiers conducting a hideous and repulsive act against a defenceless Ukrainian prisoner of war has circulated. While I will not amplify this, I wanted to provide some thoughts. 1/15 🧵
2/ First, from a purely human level, I am sickened that one human will do this to another. It is a depraved and inhuman act - there is nothing that justifies it.
3/ Second, as a soldier, it breaks my heart to see a fellow soldier - now a non-combatant - being treated in such a way. No soldier deserves such disgusting treatment.
4/ Third, the Geneva Conventions protect such individuals. There are many good reasons for this, which I should not need to describe here. But you can read the 1949 Geneva Convention relative to the Treatment of Prisoners of War here: ohchr.org/en/instruments…
5/ Fourth, this behavior by the Russian soldiers is further evidence (as if we needed any more) that the Russian Army is professionally corrupt & morally bankrupt. The entire Russian Army chain of command, because of the leadership environment they have nurtured, is responsible.
6/ An army that either explicitly (or implicitly) permits such behavior will never be capable of fighting as an effective and cohesive force. Wars still have rules. An army that operates with an ‘anything goes’ ethos is just not an army. It is an armed group of criminals.
7/ This is why the study of the profession of arms, #ethics, and the profound responsibility of exercising lethal force on behalf of one’s nation, is such an important area of study and indoctrination in military institutions.
8/ And it is the responsibility of our political leaders to also understand these imperatives - because they must hold soldiers to account for their behavior. And to do that, they must know what right looks like in a professional and ethical military institution.
9/ Fifth, this - like all the atrocities committed by the Russians in #Ukraine - can be tracked back to the statements by Putin about Ukraine not being a real country. This is part of the dehumanization process that clearly pervades down the entire chain of command.
10/ There will be many calling for the ‘elimination’ of those responsible. I understand this impulse. But as a soldier, I cannot agree with it. These murderous scumbags must be tried and made an example of, so that others know we will never allow them to get away with it. Never.
11/ We can’t go down the path of rough justice or retribution. Remember, there is a reason Ukraine is fighting for its sovereignty, and why we are supporting it. They are fighting for their existence, and for a world where such acts are not permitted nor tolerated.
12/ My heart goes out to the family and fellow soldiers of the victim of this disgusting act. The pain they will be feeling now is immeasurable. I want to express my sympathies to them.
13/ There will be some that might take issue with my stance. But, as the (retired) soldier of a democracy, this is the only approach that a member of the profession of arms can take. All else results in chaos, and a continuous chain of revenge, unethical and inhumane acts.
14/ Should the perpetrator of this subsequently be killed in combat - well, that’s life. And if he is, I hope he burns in hell. But if captured, bring him to justice, and show the world that even in war, armies of democracies believe in rules & holding transgressors to account.
15/ And it goes without saying - we need to provide as much physical and moral support to #Ukraine as we possibly can. The West needs to do all it can for the courageous Ukrainians to defeat Russia as quickly as possible. End.
America has just released its 2026 National Defense Strategy (NDS). Not seeing much press activity from the Dept of Defense/War on this. While I need time to ponder the deeper implications of the document, a few things stand out on first reading. 1/11 🧵
2/ First, the document is consistent with the 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS) released by the Trump Administration in November 2025. Key priorities in the NDS align with the NSS, as you would expect. However, while the NSS has priorities, the NDS has "Lines of Effort". whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…
3/ There are four Lines of Effort in the new NDS:
1. Defend the U.S. Homeland. 2. Deter China in the Indo-Pacific Through Strength, Not Confrontation. 3. Increase Burden-Sharing with U.S. Allies and Partners. 4. Supercharge the U.S. Defense Industrial Base.
"The Oreshnik is the sign of a Fearful, Worried Putin, Not a Leader Confident of Victory." My first 2026 update on war and great power competition. This week: the Oreshnik attack, peace talks progress, the ground war in #Ukraine, China's reaction to Venezuela and more. 1/5 🧵🇺🇦 (Image: @DefenceU)
2/ In events related to #Ukraine this week, the Oreshnik strike absorbed a lot of attention. But this was not an event that demonstrates Russia's strength. Indeed it showed the opposite. Also, peace talks in Paris took place as did a meeting of the Coalition of the Willing.
3/ In the Pacific, China continues to posture about American operations in Venezuela. While we might like to think that China will practice what it preaches with regards to its statement that “military means are not the solution to problems”, its accelerating use of military coercion and aggression against neighbours shows just how hollow and hypocritical the Xi regime is.
Also this week, Trump discussed Taiwan in his New York Times interview.
On 29 December, just as the summit between Zelenskyy and Trump was finishing at Mar-a-lago, the PLA Eastern Theatre Command announced that it had commenced exercise "Justice Mission 2025" in the #Taiwan Strait. I have just published an assessment of what China designed it to achieve, and how we can learn from it. 1/8 🧵🇹🇼
2/ Exercise Justice Mission 2025 has taken place at multiple locations around Taiwan. While the maps demonstrate the physical environment of the exercise, the more important exercise “location” is the minds of Taiwanese and foreign observers. But perhaps the most important exercise location is the mind of the U.S. president. (Map: @TaiwanMonitor)
3/ The exercise will have been designed by the Chinese with multiple objectives beyond the normal political coercion of Taiwan. These objectives include:
-rehearsing military activities for different Taiwan contingencies, including decapitation operations.
-continue developing the skills of the commanders, staff, units and overall command and control of the Eastern Theatre Command.
-assess the response of Taiwanese and American political and military systems.
-normalise large joint operations around Taiwan.
Putin can play Trump like a fiddle. But the bigger issue is that Putin has clearly decided that continuing the war in #Ukraine - while keeping Trump on side - is more advantageous to him (for now) than agreeing to any peace deal. This is a deliberate Russian provocation to get Ukraine-haters worked up and undermine the peace process. 1/6 🧵
2/ Putin has wasted no time in making his views on the current 20-point plan clear. He does not like it, but needs to keep Trump from placing more sanctions on Russia. If the current peace plan isn’t dead, it may be on life support. Will Trump hold Putin to account for this however?
3/ And today, Putin held a carefully scripted ‘military update’ with senior military commanders to further shape the minds of decision makers Washington DC, Beijing and elsewhere around Russia’s inevitable victory. The key theme - everything is going well, the enemy (Ukraine) is doing badly and we must continue fighting to ‘liberate the Donbas and Zaporizhzhia.
The much-anticipated summit between the leaders of #Ukraine and America, held at President Trump’s #Mar-a-Largo resort, has just concluded with a press conference. A quick update on outcomes. 1/15 🧵🇺🇦
2/ This is the latest meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy since Trump returned to the White House in early 2025. Some of the meetings did not go well, such as the now-infamous 28 February Oval Office meeting. Others just kicked the can down the road, such as the Alaska Summit.
3/ In the lead up to the meeting, Ukraine released details of a 20-point peace plan that would be discussed with the Trump administration, and then potential presented to the Russians. The draft plan covered multiple subjects, including security guarantees for Ukraine, Ukrainian membership of the EU, reconstruction and territory.
Also, Trump had a 2.5 hour phone conversation with Putin - a call that was as long as today's main meeting between Ukraine and the US.
I recently returned from another research visit to #Ukraine, my second for 2025. I have written a new white paper, published by the @CSIS, which explores 7 strategic insights based on knowledge gained on my recent visit & other research. 1/7 🧵🇺🇦
2/ The white paper covers a range of subjects related to how #Ukraine and #Russia are fighting this war. The seven insights not only illuminate the state of the war, and the degree of learning and #adaptation occurring, they provide lessons that western military institutions must analyse and heed.
3/ The seven subjects covered are:
1. Drone saturation and Russian drone innovation. 2. The new tactical battle triangle. 3. The ongoing and accelerating adaptation battle. 4. Long-range strike operations. 5. Ground-based air defence. 6. Russia's tactical and strategic advantages. 7. War strategy and trajectory.