1. Four #Russian #depots destroyed in the #Kherson region including one near Sea of Azov/Crimea. One depot is on the escape route for the large force east of the #IInhulets river, near where the Russians must reach to escape south across the #NovaKakhovka dam.
2. If I'm right about the hit at #Beryslav, the Ukrainians may have taken out the the logistics for the rear-guard for the forces engaged east of the Inhulets river. A large force consisting at a minimum of 205th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade; 11th Separate Assault Brigade
3. and the 126th Separate Coast Guard Brigade. This map was last updated 5 July. I admit I don't really know the sizes of Russian units that seem to vary widely and dwindled with the defeat north of Kyiv. But this map shows a Corps and two brigades.
4. That's a lot of forces if they decide to evacuate. Every day they wait now cut-off with questionable resupply and HIMARS raining down on their force, there's the ingredients for starting a rout. And all the equipment likely to be left as they
5. hightail it out of there will make good 'pickins for the Ukrainian farmers.

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More from @TimInHonolulu

Jul 29
1. One issue I'm pondering is when the Koch crew is in the grand jury and being questioned and a question is directed to the what #45 said or heard, who will raise the Executive privilege? Will #45 have to submit a log to the DOJ that says these areas are privileged and describe
2. them with sufficient detail to allow the court to rule just like other privilege assertions? The witness has to go in the room without an attorney so no attorney will be there to raise the privilege. So if my understanding is correct that some prior assertion has to be made,
3. perhaps after #45's attorney consults with the witnesses' counsel, won't there have to be a log or some writing where #45 has to describe the date and who was present and say "discussion of electors with x y and z." So the grand jury will know who was present and what they
Read 6 tweets
Jul 28
1. I think it's a mistake for @January6thCmte to narrow its focus on the 25th Am when interviewing these witnesses. The mechanics of the 25th makes it unlikely that a POTUS resisting removal would be out for more than about 48 hours. Though in the emergency on Jan 6 that might
2. have seemed worth a try it would have also been a shock to the entire world with unpredictable consequences. What they need to focus on is what was the plan? Let's say that #45 did stop the count and through assassination of both Pence and Pelosi that IMO was the plan, #45
3. would still be POTUS for another 14 days when his term ends. That's the point the Committee needs to focus on when trying to understand the plan. It is possible that the House could elect a new Speaker but under the military enforced martial law contemplated by the coup, it
Read 5 tweets
Jul 27
1. Looks like Ukrainian GMLRS took out a fuel facility NE of Donetsk. Also another hit in a industrial site to the south.
2. Here is the recent FIRMS map showing the proximity to Donetsk.
3. This is the overhead view of the target to the north. Looks like a refinery to me.
Read 4 tweets
Jul 26
I think the UN Security Council meeting on the Turkish attack on Iraqi civilians may be starting soon. #TwitterKurds media.un.org/en/asset/k13/k…
2. The UN representative is speaking. 20 July 5 rounds of artillery struck a busy tourist resort. First round missed and later rounds struck civilians. Iraq attributed it to Turkish armed forces. Turks denied responsibility. Said the attack was by terrorists of the PKK that
3. denied responsibility for the attack. Next day UN condemned Turkey for the attack. Iraq announced it would seek high level UN response. 23 July Iraq PM met with Barzani and both later condemned Iraqi attack.
Read 27 tweets
Jul 26
1. As long as the Russian middle class has the ability to travel and feel a sense of normalcy, the Kremlin will have no motivation to end its wars of conquest. We need to make Russians like Iranians and North Koreans. Generally banned from the west. There should be no
2. non-immigrant Russians other than credentialed diplomats and perhaps a few reporters in the US. They should all be given 60 days to leave and any real estate they acquired disposed of or it will be seized. We can deal with countries like Turkey by limiting their nationals
3. access to the US if they don't apply the bans on Russians. Make the Russians know there is war, it's all Russia's fault and they are going to suffer as long as it continues. Our goal should be overthrow of the Putin crime syndicate. Making them despised by the middle class
Read 4 tweets
Jul 25
1. I've been watching posted videos of Russian columns moving around Melitipol the Ukrainian city west of Mariupol. I could not be sure of their direction of travel but I think it's fair to assume Russia is withdrawing forces from the fight in the east and moving them southwest.
2. My principal support for this conclusion is the dearth of action around Slovyansk and the associated lines of contact in that region. Here is my GoogleEarth map with the FIRMS data loading. It shows only recent hits. Only two fires. One near Artemivsk that is Russian held. Image
3. The other to the north near a bridge that was taken out and could be a Russian pontoon being staged that was struck on the shore. But nothing else. Quite a contrast to what is happening to the south. Image
Read 8 tweets

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