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ltrd

@ltrd_

Feb 5

Crazy Monday sell-off ahead! As always, I’ve analyzed the most critical moments of this event. I promise you’ll find shocking numbers and insights on this massive sell-off. In this “episode,” I’ll explain:

Why did ETH drop so much more than BTC?
Where did traders use this dump to accumulate huge amounts of coins?
What was the largest single-minute dump?
How extreme was the sell pressure on ETH?
Which coins resisted the sell pressure and recovered quickly?

Get ready for a thread packed with insights that will break down these wild Monday market moves. I hope you’ll discover some surprising facts! Appreciate any thoughts and shares.

#Bitcoin #Binance #Ethereum #Crypto

We need to focus on ETH because the scale of the sell-off is insane. Compared to BTC, ETH dropped significantly harder, and I’d like to show you where this is visible on the charts.

First, let’s compare CVD (the net sum of buy and sell trades) for BTC and ETH on Binance Spot. It’s shocking that sell pressure was equal on both, despite BTC having a market cap six times larger. ETH’s CVD was around -$250 million. On Binance Futures, the sell pressure on ETH was even greater than on BTC, which is absolutely wild.

Read 18 tweets

ltrd

@ltrd_

Jan 20

$TRUMP MEMECOIN BREAKDOWN 🧵

It was one of the craziest events we have ever witnessed. In less than three days, TRUMP's turnover on Binance alone caught up with the total turnover of all US equities for the entire month of January. In this tweet, I will try to highlight the most important insights from a microstructure perspective. We will examine where people were buying and selling $TRUMP, where the largest market impacts occurred, and which moments were the most significant in the trading timeline. Additionally, we will take a closer look at the Binance Spot listing, which was likely the most pivotal event.

#Trump $TRUMP #Binance

The first plot shows price action on centralized exchanges during the first 60 minutes post-listing. It’s crucial to analyze which exchange impacted the market most. Despite Binance being listed later than others, it had a big market impact and performed exceptionally well.

The second plot is crazy. It shows the CVD for several spot exchanges. Binance’s buy pressure was spectacular in the first few dozen minutes. Compare this to other exchanges. A deeper analysis of Binance’s listing will be necessary later.

Read 12 tweets

ltrd

@ltrd_

Dec 10, 2024

Today’s dump resulted in the biggest liquidation since 2021. I would like to present a microstructure view of this entire situation. As always, this thread is full of insights, charts, and comments.

Retweet if you enjoyed the analysis.

Firstly, when discussing this kind of dump, we need to determine where the pressure was greatest. We observed something crazy—Coinbase traders began selling aggressively almost an hour before the mega dump.

Of course, the biggest drop was triggered by a liquidation cascade, but this constant selling pressure was crucial in pushing the price into a region where overleveraged positions were forced to close. How can we tell that the market was overheated? It’s simple—the Funding Fee plus the increase in Open Interest. These two factors are drivers of the current market and indicate that people are overleveraged.

Read 12 tweets

ltrd

@ltrd_

Dec 3, 2024

Korea declared Martial Law. It was one of the most spectacular trading events I've ever witnessed in my trading career. I've prepared detailed explanations of what exactly happened in the market and why it was so different from any other event. If you enjoyed it, please retweet!

BTC on Upbit was priced under $65k, while we saw almost $95k on Binance— $30k difference between Korea and the rest of the world. That was absolutely crazy. We observed big sell pressure, with almost $7mm more in sell orders than buy orders. The next plot is the most important.

Here, we have the price action as well as CVD for USDTKRW. You can see that about $50mm was sold in a couple of minutes. With normal liquidity, that would not have been so brutal, but all the players just disappeared from the market, causing a drop to 75 cents.

Read 9 tweets

ltrd

@ltrd_

Nov 9, 2024

🧵BTC vs. Polymarket @Polymarket analysis

As you can see on the plot, price action of BTC and TRUMP winning elections is pretty similar. Significant moves were seen both on BTC and TRUMP from around midnight UTC.
Let's deep dive a little bit more into the data.

#Election2024

It can be seen that in time of bigger volatility BTC was reacting much faster that polymarket. The time difference is of course much, much bigger than block time.

Here we have regression plot for price differences (15 minutes) on BTC and TRUMP. You can clear see how correlated they are.

Read 6 tweets

ltrd

@ltrd_

Oct 11, 2023

I've read and analyzed the book “Going Infinite” by Michael Lewis about SBF. I'll try to show you interesting quotes, problems, lies, and why the fundamental problem was that SBF was a complete chronic liar. I’ve worked on it for a few days and it'll be a big thread.
1/43 🧵

[2/43] I am going to split the topics into four parts: the book, SBF, FTX, and overall conclusions. All of the topics will be described with examples, quotes, and my own analysis and opinions.

[3/43] The first thing is the book - most of it (~70%) is about idealizing SBF and creating an image of a genius and the most generous person in the world. All of the worst possible personality traits were justified by his greatness.

Read 45 tweets

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