Recently, I got DMs regarding how I use AI on a daily basis, so I’m going to explain it from my PoV. Currently, my job is more business-related rather than quant. I am responsible for strategic partnerships, the research planning, new investments (both financial and technological) and of course leadership as well as recruitment process. That’s the reason why you can find my PoV interesting. 🧵 Use Deep Research Mode - I try to use it constantly before important meetings or in order to get the first exposure to some topic. You have important meeting with a person from business that you are not familiar with? You talk about new financial product that you have not seen before? You talk with startup founder about an idea that you have never heard about? That is the ideal case for Deep Research.

I got a lot of messages regarding materials for perpetual swaps (and CFD). Let's focus more on perps and what to do and read to better understand this instrument.

I provide you with articles, exercises and plan to work on perpetual swaps. 🧵 Firstly, assuming (almost) zero knowledge, I would read exchange docs with explanation. Something simple - read the article, read the docs and try to fully understand the basics. There is no worse situation than starting without deep, fundamental knowledge.

okx.com/help/iv-introd…

guides.delta.exchange/delta-exchange…

Why you should not catch a knife on small-cap instruments? 🧵

Today, I’m going to give you one of the most important lessons you can get if you want to be profitable long-term (with statistics and examples).

We all have the desire to think that a 30% drop is just a discount and a time to buy your favorite, solid-looking coin. That is far from the truth.

If you want to read only one thing today, this is the one you should choose.

#CryptoTrading Story:
Imagine your favorite coin — the one you follow on X and engage with on Discord — drops 30% without any specific event. (Let’s assume BTC didn’t drop more than 3% on the same day.)

First thought?
“I’ll buy it — it’s a super cool project, and this is just a discount.”

Unfortunately, on average, that’s the wrong choice.
And I’ll show you why — with data, and a possible explanation.

Conclusions after TOKEN2049 🧵

TOKEN2049 in Dubai is behind us, and it's time for reflections. I've prepared a short list of observations from my week in Dubai—I hope it gives you a fresh perspective. Remember, if you want a comprehensive view of TOKEN2049, don't rely solely on my list; read others' reflections too. We all attend TOKEN2049 with different goals, levels of preparation, and meet different people. Also, when I make statements, assume the Pareto principle—meaning it's true 80% of the time, not 100%. There will always be outliers or exceptions.

#Token2049Dubai #Crypto EXPO is getting worse → The expo is now 60% exchanges (mostly low-quality, but not exclusively) and market makers (also mostly low-quality). Nothing new, important, or interesting. Few good projects or narratives to keep you engaged at the expo, and many important people didn't even bother getting tickets.

I have prepared several thought experiments for you to think about in the evening with your favorite herbal tea (or any other drink).

Focus on deep thinking about the problems and possible scenarios.

In thought experiments, one of the most important things is to think about really strange situations (with crazy numbers) and the cause-and-effect chains.
(Often, with outliers and crazy examples, it's actually easier to find hidden dependencies or counterexamples.)

Here are some thought experiments (or puzzles) 🧵🧵🧵:

#Crypto #CryptoTrading #Margin #ADL Insurance Fund goes to 0, but the exchange applies a “0 ADL Rule” (No ADL):
What can the exchange do to mitigate the big risks of market impacts or even its own default because of excessive liquidation and bankruptcy losses?

I would like to recommend this book to all of you - Unreasonable Hospitality is simply great. I love it so much that I gave it to a couple of the most important people in the company to share the values from the book. Quick review in the thread 🧵

Read this book!

#books This book is about a lot of topics - philosophy of hospitality, leadership, management, progress, mentoring and great experience at work.

I guess most people would say we've had a small (or maybe not-so-small) bull run over the last 3–4 months. I analyzed data from before the US elections and checked the price statistics for coins traded on Binance. Nearly 70% of coins are now trading lower than they were before the elections!

That seems pretty crazy given the recent market sentiment. Let’s take a Sunday afternoon break and dive into the data. Here are the top 5 performing coins during this period:

HBAR (+434%)
XRP (+369%)
OM (+343%)
XLM (+255%)
VTHO (+211%)

And the bottom 5:

NEIRO (-76%)
RUNE (-76%)
BOME (-73%)
PEOPLE (-70%)
WIF (-67.8%)

Below, you’ll find the full TOP 10 and BOTTOM 10 rankings for this period.

Crazy Monday sell-off ahead! As always, I’ve analyzed the most critical moments of this event. I promise you’ll find shocking numbers and insights on this massive sell-off. In this “episode,” I’ll explain:

Why did ETH drop so much more than BTC?
Where did traders use this dump to accumulate huge amounts of coins?
What was the largest single-minute dump?
How extreme was the sell pressure on ETH?
Which coins resisted the sell pressure and recovered quickly?

Get ready for a thread packed with insights that will break down these wild Monday market moves. I hope you’ll discover some surprising facts! Appreciate any thoughts and shares.

#Bitcoin #Binance #Ethereum #Crypto We need to focus on ETH because the scale of the sell-off is insane. Compared to BTC, ETH dropped significantly harder, and I’d like to show you where this is visible on the charts.

$TRUMP MEMECOIN BREAKDOWN 🧵

It was one of the craziest events we have ever witnessed. In less than three days, TRUMP's turnover on Binance alone caught up with the total turnover of all US equities for the entire month of January. In this tweet, I will try to highlight the most important insights from a microstructure perspective. We will examine where people were buying and selling $TRUMP, where the largest market impacts occurred, and which moments were the most significant in the trading timeline. Additionally, we will take a closer look at the Binance Spot listing, which was likely the most pivotal event.

#Trump $TRUMP #Binance The first plot shows price action on centralized exchanges during the first 60 minutes post-listing. It’s crucial to analyze which exchange impacted the market most. Despite Binance being listed later than others, it had a big market impact and performed exceptionally well.

I’ve received a lot of questions regarding my last tweets. Unfortunately, I can’t answer all of them, but I will try to address the most frequent ones. Firstly, if you want to conduct such analysis, you need to spend thousands of hours interpreting data. In today’s world of AI, programming is not as crucial. Plot as many charts as you can, interpret them, ask yourself questions about those charts, and don’t stop until you fully understand what’s on your screen. Try to ask at least one follow-up question for every chart, and inquire about the consequences of the relationships/measures you observe. With this mindset, you will be able to achieve much more than I have done here.

Today’s dump resulted in the biggest liquidation since 2021. I would like to present a microstructure view of this entire situation. As always, this thread is full of insights, charts, and comments.

Retweet if you enjoyed the analysis. Firstly, when discussing this kind of dump, we need to determine where the pressure was greatest. We observed something crazy—Coinbase traders began selling aggressively almost an hour before the mega dump.

Korea declared Martial Law. It was one of the most spectacular trading events I've ever witnessed in my trading career. I've prepared detailed explanations of what exactly happened in the market and why it was so different from any other event. If you enjoyed it, please retweet! BTC on Upbit was priced under $65k, while we saw almost $95k on Binance— $30k difference between Korea and the rest of the world. That was absolutely crazy. We observed big sell pressure, with almost $7mm more in sell orders than buy orders. The next plot is the most important.

🧵BTC vs. Polymarket @Polymarket analysis

As you can see on the plot, price action of BTC and TRUMP winning elections is pretty similar. Significant moves were seen both on BTC and TRUMP from around midnight UTC.
Let's deep dive a little bit more into the data.

#Election2024 It can be seen that in time of bigger volatility BTC was reacting much faster that polymarket. The time difference is of course much, much bigger than block time.

I've read and analyzed the book “Going Infinite” by Michael Lewis about SBF. I'll try to show you interesting quotes, problems, lies, and why the fundamental problem was that SBF was a complete chronic liar. I’ve worked on it for a few days and it'll be a big thread.
1/43 🧵 [2/43] I am going to split the topics into four parts: the book, SBF, FTX, and overall conclusions. All of the topics will be described with examples, quotes, and my own analysis and opinions.

There was a really interesting event two days ago. Binance listed $ARKM, for the first time with a price cap (0.5$) and it changed the process of listing and price discovery. Couple of comments and plots for me to explain the interesting parts of it.

#trading #Binance #ARKM Firstly, what is important is that when there was a Binance listing, on DEXes $ARKM was already priced much above the cap price from Binance. On Uniswap you could get the price close to 0.8$, but the cap on Binance was 0.5$.

[1/n] Friday’s night crash was very interesting because there was no big news at this moment and some of the instruments fell about 50% within two hours. I would like to break down the microstructure behaviors and do an overall analysis from that day. 🧵

#trading #cryptocrash Firstly, let’s take a look at the macroscopic view of the market. On the histogram, we can see the changes from the highest price to the lowest price within the first couple of hours of June 10th (UTC). Big moves around the whole crypto space.

[1] The hottest topic in the crypto universe last couple of days was $PEPE - a meme coin that went to top 40 coins and was the biggest meme surprise since SHIB in October 2021. How did the market look in the HFT data? Let’s see! 🧵🧵

#pepe #cryptocurrency #trading [2] I focus on CEX trading because there were more analyses related to the $PEPE and trading on DEXes, such as the great thread by @thiccythot_ which can bring you a lot of value in terms of understanding what happened on $PEPE. Highly recommended thread.

https://twitter.com/thiccythot_/status/1654775743577038848

A couple of days ago we had probably the most important listing this year - $ARB. It is the best possibility to understand the market because of the lack of perpetual swaps, withdrawals, and liquidity. Let’s take a look at it through the eyes of an HFT player.

#Arbitrum In the first minutes of the trading, there is absolutely Wild West in terms of the market microstructure. You do not have perps and withdrawals, so the capability of HFT players is limited and then you can see the purest form of trading.

A lot of (probably most) the crypto exchanges produce fake trades that count into the overall turnover in order to move the exchange up in volume rankings. How really famous exchanges do it? How we can see it?

🧵🧵🧵

#trading #cryptocurrency What do I mean by fake trade? It is a trade that you, as an other player in the market, cannot participate in, because it is an exchange's trade with itself. If you are not able to participate with this trade, it should not be included in the overall turnover.

Recently, I watch @LomahCrypto videos. What is visible, is that he almost always trades hot coins + BTC/ETH. What I wanted to check is if staying with top performers is typically good for you or not as a trader.
🧵I think the results with be insightful for everybody.🧵

#trading I divided my data into two periods:

- First 10 days of 2023
- Rest of 2023

Data consists of all the Binance Spot instruments with quote currency in USDT and BUSD.

🧵🧵Why it is more important to know when to trade than what to trade?

Recently, I heard from @LomahCrypto during his live that one of the greatest mistakes is to trade when you should not. I would like to prove statistically and by visualization, that it is truth.

#trading I created a simple portfolio:
- Choose one instrument randomly
- Choose when to open a position randomly
- Choose when to close the position randomly.

By doing that, I want to make sure that I do not interfere in choosing what I trade. We do not do anything special.