fly4dat Profile picture
Aug 2 6 tweets 4 min read
1/ $MSTR has amassed exactly $2B loss (net of fees and interests, mark-to-market) on its $4B #BTC "investment" (see below). That's 50% loss per my math.

No, $MSTRQ doesn't have a long-term time horizon
2/ On slide #13, $MSTR says they've bought ~130k #BTC for $4B or $30,664/BTC.

On slide #19, they say the carrying value is $1.988B ($15.327/BTC) and market value is $2.451B ($18.897/BTC) for a $2B loss.
3/ The underlying biz just breaks even.

Shareholders are already underwater, in other words, they are buying negative equity for their good dollars. #BTC needs to appreciate just so that their "investment" will be worth zero.
4/ It's like teaching kids negative numbers: if there are a negative 187 million people on the bus, how many people have to hop on so that no one would be on that bus?
(apologies, not mark-to-market but as per 6/30)
Why own $MSTR instead of buying #BTC directly and enjoying every single % of appreciation (if any)?

Under ~$21.5k/BTC $MSTR won't be able to service its debt (when due). If #BTC drops 15%, $MSTR is BK while w/ direct #BTC you'd still have 85%.

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More from @fly4dat

Aug 1
1/ Musk MUST settle. If there is an unfavorable ruling, $TSLA stonk collapses before he can pledge more shares for loans, or if he sells, he'll get margin called on his existing ones.

$TSLAQ
2/ He will have to settle before Judge McCormick makes the ruling. Anything later is too late.

3/ I find it unlikely that @jack and his other co-investors would be staying with him after all this mess (Would you want to invest in a fraud? If you believe in Musk, you must also believe that Twitter is a fraud. He'd have to run it.). Musk already had problems with raising $$.
Read 6 tweets
Apr 14
1. Musk buys 9̶.̶2̶ 9.1% stake in Twitter
2. Fails to disclose it on time, filing is fraudulent (passive investor, wrong share #) - it's no coincidence
3. Wants to take a board seat
4.20 Board seat is denied due to compliance reasons

$TWTR $TSLA $TSLAQ 1/3
5. Makes a low enough offer (420 included nonetheless) which is "final and best and if not accepted I'll exit" that the Board will have to reject both on price and compliance* reasons
6. He sells with a $250-300M gain and he's gonna be the victim again

2/3
6.9 Continues to mock the SEC, which already has several investigations against him
8. If the SEC strikes him, he's gonna be a victim of the SEC, not his own frauds

* Board should know that this deal wouldn't get regulatory approval anyway, so has a fiduciary duty to reject

3/3
Read 5 tweets
Oct 23, 2021
1/ Many bulls were surprised about the relatively low # of Teslas delivered in Q3 in Europe🇪🇺

I believe most all shipped have been delivered, and the # wasn't low at all.

$TSLA $TSLAQ
2/ However, it's always a question how many unfilled orders have slipped to Q4. According to my *channel checks*, there have been a few from even early Q3 slipping into Q4, especially M3LR. We can say that Q3 demand was strong.
3/ But Q4 orders have been slow so far. Maybe the ~€2k price hike was too much for many. If you order a car today, you'll likely get it in November.
Read 5 tweets
Mar 4, 2021
1/ This is how $STLA's reg credit situation with $TSLA looks like.

There is still $476M (€400M) left for this year. After 2021, the CO2 party in Europe is over.

$TSLAQ
2/ As you can see, $TSLA has recognized way more credit revenue than what $STLA recognized as cost. This means that either a) $TSLA sold credits in the US and China in meaningful amounts to others, or b) recognized revenue earlier than $STLA recognized the costs.
3/ For 2019, China credit revenues must have been negligible for $TSLA. The US reg credit market was and continues to be weak. Many OEMs let the credits expire.

In 2020 $TSLA sold Chinese credits in meaningful amounts, but not even close to $622M.
Read 8 tweets
Jan 7, 2021
Congratulations @elonmusk for becoming the richest person and richest fraudster on Earth! I've summed up the combined lifetime revenues and wages paid by all your companies and compared them to your net worth (+42.0%). Doesn't make sense? Neither does your net worth

$TSLA $TSLAQ
This person suddenly sends low-paid workers on unpaid leave at Christmas bc of "retooling" (would have cost maybe a million?). Orders them to work during a pandemic. Factories are dangerous, filled with systemic racism.

revealnews.org/article/inside…
Any and all his "profits" come from governmental sources like regulatory credits: selling other car-makers the right to pollute the planet. He has raked in tens of billions of subsidies from the average taxpayer but criticizes subsidies for others.

forbes.com/sites/alanohns…
Read 7 tweets
Jan 2, 2021
BREAKING: #Tesla misses its yearly delivery forecast by 500,450 units maybe, 450 units definitely & its Robotaxi forecast by at least 1,000,001 units.

1/

$TSLA $TSLAQ

businessinsider.com/elon-musk-hedg…
2/ Tesla has made 12.5k more Model 3's than it has sold in 2020, even after having started the year with ample inventory. #Tesla isn't production constrained, it's demand constrained.

$TSLA $TSLAQ
3/ #Tesla had at least 635k stated production capacity, accounting for shutdowns (and a bit more). We know that in reality, Shanghai made more than stated capacity. That's 80% utilization. Skoda runs at 120%. $TSLA isn't production constrained, it's demand constrained.

$TSLAQ
Read 9 tweets

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