Back by popular request - Pre-seed startup valuations!
Let’s look at over 4K pre-seed deal submissions @hustlefund has gotten over the past year+ and see what's happening in the world of US pre-seed venture capital 🧵
What we are seeing - valuations have trended lower in q2.
Valuations are back to EOY 2021 levels (~$6M USD) down from all-time highs of ~$7M USD in 1Q2022
2/9
Things to note
- Data is based on submissions we received from US non-crypto startups
- Pre-seed startups are all very different & there is a lot of dispersion in valuations.
- Median trend <> the trend holds true for all pre-seed startups
3/9
There are a couple of drivers I am seeing (and many more I am probably missing)
#1 - less high valuation startups & less dispersion in valuations.
While 2021 saw wider valuation ranges, 2022 saw ranges narrow, especially for higher valuations
4/9
#2 - valuations for lower MRR startups decreased
While higher MRR valuations decreased in the first part of 2022, valuations for lower MRR startups came down in Q2.
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#3 - valuations for consumer startups decreased
While consumer startups had very similar valuations to enterprise startups for much of 2021, their valuations decreased more in 2022 than valuations for enterprise startups
6/9
Also of note - In addition to valuations coming down, we have seen a slight decrease in the volume of deals we are seeing. This means instead of 6-700 deals a month, we are seeing closer to 500.
7/9
Hope this has been helpful.
As always questions, comments, and feedback are welcome.
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A lot of people had questions on my last tweet about pre-seed valuations. How does valuation vary in the US? How does it vary across regions? How much are people raising? Let's answer them!
One key point I want to make is that while the market moves up or down, on the whole, there is still a lot of variation! Looking at the graph from last time, you can see that one standard deviation is $4M even within the US market.
It’s also key to note that in addition to valuations going up, so is the variation! you can see that in the band around the previous graph and in the distribution in this one
Everyone is talking about higher valuations in VC in 2021. At @HustleFundVC, we looked at over 3k US Pre-seed deals to better understand if it's true and what's behind it. Let's Go! #VC#startups
Well, it's true (I know, anticlimactic). Valuations are up 55% from pandemic lows (I'm using a 4-week moving average, so the drop and rebound are a little delayed).
What's driving this? Comprehensive increase in valuations. The distribution of valuations has shifted to the right of $10m. However, 10m+ valuations are still the minority of deals we see.