#BLS #NFP estimates for July hover around 270K, but recent estimates have proven dramatically unreliable to the downside.
At some point, the opposite will be the case.
With unemployment claims rising, let's see if this is the month?
At some point, the opposite will be the case.
With unemployment claims rising, let's see if this is the month?
NFP shock at +528,000 jobs created or restored.
Average hourly earnings up 0.5%.
This was NOT the month for a retrenchment, to say the least.
More to come....
Average hourly earnings up 0.5%.
This was NOT the month for a retrenchment, to say the least.
More to come....
Upward adjustments from prior months pretty much across the board. The labor force DECLINED (continuing prior pattern) by 63K and the unemployment rate falls to 3.5%.
The Fed's trajectory is clear at this point.
The Fed's trajectory is clear at this point.
Let's look at where these jobs gains came from:
Private sector growth was 471K of the 528K. The 57K in government hiring was 30K education.
Of the private sector, goods production came in at a very healthy 69K, with construction at 32K and manufacturing at 30K....
Private sector growth was 471K of the 528K. The 57K in government hiring was 30K education.
Of the private sector, goods production came in at a very healthy 69K, with construction at 32K and manufacturing at 30K....
A really good sign for manufacturing is that of the 30K, 21K was durables and only 1.8K is in low paying food manufacturing. A very strong sign. In services, however, the outcome was somewhat different. The lower paying sectors responsible for the lion's share of July's growth...
Retail, Administrative and Waste, Healthcare and Social Services, Leisure and Hospitality and Other, together added 258,000 of the 471,000 private sector jobs (54%) and 64% of all service sector jobs.
But the pickup in lower paying jobs is likely emblematic of wage growth in those sectors attracting workers back into same, more than it is a sign of worker desperation, in this job-rich environment.
The @jobqualityindex's JQInstant read of the percentage of private sector jobs formed or restored in July in sectors that pay below the average of all private sector jobs, shows 51.4%. A little lighter than the 54% I roughed out above, and a good sign: 
So to wrap up, some additional thoughts:
1) This hiring spurt in services may well be linked to "back to work" in many cities (even NYC). Retail, restaurant, hotel and administrative jobs coming back (finally, and relatively suddenly) in enough volume to truly move the needle.>>
1) This hiring spurt in services may well be linked to "back to work" in many cities (even NYC). Retail, restaurant, hotel and administrative jobs coming back (finally, and relatively suddenly) in enough volume to truly move the needle.>>
2) Notwithstanding the above extraordinary situation, this and prior jobs reports beg a question:
Why aren't Democrats, heading in to the mid-terms, pivoting from talking about the downer of inflation to running commercials showing millions of happy Americans working and playing?
Why aren't Democrats, heading in to the mid-terms, pivoting from talking about the downer of inflation to running commercials showing millions of happy Americans working and playing?
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
