Thread by @althecat

Being as we are collectively suffering from news attention overload - we have moved on from this. But this incident with Pelosi deserves a lot more examination.

>> @MehdiHasan's @MSNBC show provides context & highlights the extent of US confusion.

@MehdiHasan @MSNBC I'm going to provide some additional context - not included in much of the discussion..
1. Pelosi's visit (she arrived 2 Aug) coincided with the beginning of the China's Presidency of the UN Security Council >> video briefing >>

@MehdiHasan @MSNBC 2. It also coincided with the beginning of the 10th Nuclear Proliferation Treaty review conference. The Presidency and the NPT conference both started on 1st August.

NYC Media Briefing Aug 2.>>

@MehdiHasan @MSNBC 1b. In his briefing China's PR at the UN announced that there would be a Presidency Open Debate on 8th August on "Peace and Security in Africa: Capacity-building for Sustaining Peace"
UNWebTV Video >> media.un.org/en/asset/k1g/k…

2b. China's PR also answered questions relavent to the issues being discussed in the NPT conference which runs till August 26th. Including this one >> which relates to the AUKUS 56 Billion USD Australian nuclear submarine deal announced a year ago.

Some may recall that the annuncement of this deal caused a dipomatic incident between the US and France as France had a contract to supply Australia with non-nuclear submarines (@France24 report >> france24.com/en/live-news/2…). en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AUKUS

2c. Most reporting on the AUKUS announcement suggested the French response was sour grapes over a lucrative contract being lost. But there is a lot more to this.

For starters there is a South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone Treaty >> un.org/nwfz/fr/conten…

2d. New Zealand also has a Nuclear Free Zone en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Zeala… (Est. 1987) under which NZ's waters are effectively closed to all US Naval vessels as they have a "neither confirm nor deny" policy in relation to whether they carry nuclear weaons.

2e. Last year shortly days after the announcement of the Australian Submarine deal NZ's PM @JacindaArdern said that Australia's nuclear powered submarines would also be banned from NZ waters. france24.com/en/live-news/2…

2f. Following Pelosi's visit (Aug 7th )this interview was conducted with Australia's opposition Shadow Defence Minister which talks in greater detail about what AUKUS means for Australia.

2g. Whilst the Australian submarines are not intended/expected to be nuclear armed based on what we know, Aus. Shadow Defence Minister Andrew Hastie's remarks show they subs will be missile capable and are intended to be used as a deterrent to China. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Ha…

2h. Responding to the question on AUKUS, China's PR said that China and its regional partners had serious concerns about the project as it includes the transfer of "highly enriched uranium" to Australia violating the principles and purposes of the NPT.

https://twitter.com/althecat/status/1557387585181327360?s=20&t=H04kqEKmblte0VD168A4ZA

1c. Returning to US-China competition in Africa.

On Aug 8th China held it's Africa Open Debate & the US programmed a new "Africa Strategy" launch event in South Africa.

Chinese Ambassador's remarks >> media.un.org/en/asset/k1g/k…

@SecBlinken's speech >>

3a. There two more developments related to this US-China diplomatic melee which link the two streams of great power competition - and introduce a new element #COP27 in Africa for the first time 7th-18th November in Egypt. cop27.eg/#/

3b. And Pelosi's visit to Taiwan had a significant impact on #COP27 as possibly the most significant consequence of her visit was the cancellation of the China-US partnership on Climate Change announced at at #COP26 in Glasgow. state.gov/u-s-china-join…

3c. Cancellation maybe too strong a description - but the "Halt in cooperation" by China announced on Friday August 5th set alarm bells off all over the world - as the US-China Joint Glasgow Declaration was arguably #COP26's most impt. outcome. theguardian.com/environment/20…

3d. Finally in relation to #COP27 there is a contextual data point which brings Russia into this diplomatic drama. #COP27 may take place between two African Leaders summits, a Russian one in Ethiopia Oct/Nov & a US one in Washington Dec 13-15.

3e. The Russian Summit only "may" occur it does not yet have a confirmed date and venue.

It does have have a location though - Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. If it does occur it will be the 2nd African leaders summit, the first took place in Sochi in 2019. intellinews.com/russia-prepari…

3f. The importance of this with respect to #COP27 is that the largest negotiating and voting block in the UNFCCC process is the G77+China. The G77 is a group of 134 developing nations including all the 54 African nations en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Group_of_….

3g. Finally wrt #COP27 overnight on August 7th - the day before the UNSC Africa Meeting and the US Africa Strategy launch the US Congress passed a credible Climate Strategy. whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…

Analysis/conclusions:
- Over the past 10 days there has been an avalanche of developments in great power (i.e. nuclear super-power) relations.
- Taiwan is a symptom not the cause.
- A showdown is coming in November when the United Nations will gather in Egypt for #COP27 1/5

...
- Russia did not attend #COP26 but the long-standing relationship with Egypt suggests they may attend #COP27
- #COP27 will take place during an energy crisis - and rapidly deteriorating super-power relations and increasing competition. 2/5

...
- Africa appears to be a focal point in the competition side of this.
- The other primary focal points are Ukraine and Taiwan.
- The Pacific is arguably a 3rd focal point in the nuclear power stand-off side of this. 3/5

...
- The 10th Nuclear non-proliferation conference is underway and has 16 more days to run - all major parties to this are participating in
- The conference provides a venue & opportunity for Great Power diplomacy to escalate or de-escalate tensions. 4/5

...
Economic super-power and Nuclear armed Europe (France+UK) is not yet embroiled in the great power competition - but alongside China they are the most committed economic super-power to climate change mitigation and diplomacy - and this appears to be their core focus. 4/5

- The EC and European Nation states along with the @UN are therefore probably best placed to act as mediators to try to diffuse tensions leading up to #COP27 and ensure that it does not fail 5/5