Thread by @PiotrGil86

A crucial voice to be heard and heard attentively from an expert, who is one of the few having the expertise and insight to make relevang comments on the menacing situation that is unfolding in the #PacificOcean.
A situation that may portend a #war of fearsome consequences.

https://twitter.com/ElbridgeColby/status/1557357280420474881

Contrary to an opinion, common both among (some of the) experts and laymen, the #balance_of_power in this region, which is critically important for the stability of the #world_order and its #security_architecture, is far from being either clear or fixed (though we want it to be).

And, as the history of international relations teaches us, it is usually the lack of clarity and miscalculations that wars arise from. What transpires from this analysis, the #US no longer substantially surpasses #China in the military field (save for others such as economy).

At best, their advantage is still there, but it is insufficient and is noticeably waning. This means that the name of the game the US must start playing (and start fast) is, as @ElbridgeColby urges, "catch up". But, according to him, the American leaders do not seem to do it.

The result of this status quo, representing a mismatch between the #geostrategic ends and military means, is anxiety and tension, growing visibly among the American political and intellectual elites (hopefully excluding the military ones). In such case what we crave is an answer.

But a helpful answer can only emerge from an accurate judgement, which in turn must be grounded in reliable knowledge and premises. Those, unfortunately, we do not and may never have. There are at least two major reasons for that: complexity and uniqueness of the situation.

Its complexity means that it involves not only many aspects, but in fact more than we realise to be important or take into account. Perhaps the one that is overlooked the most is the civilisational factor. Put simply, we do not know a lot about China nor we understand it well.

As for uniqueness, our judgment is clouded by the fact that history knows no example of China's involvement in a world's scale #hegemonic_competition with a non-#Asian #great_power. It does not mean that China has always stayed afar from major conflicts. In fact it has not.

But the one we are debating will be, if it of course comes to it (and praying for it never to materialise), of unprecedented scale and ramifications. One may invoke the analogy of the #cold_war rivalry between the US-led #NATO and the #USRR, but it would be an analytical error.

What must be realised and borne in mind is the fact that the world is now facing a crisis that is essentially incomparable with any other in the modern history. We are walking in the dark and on thin ice. And on the brink of disaster. So let us better tread carefully.