Thread by @WarintheFuture

This is a very interesting set of images from @EliotHiggins of @bellingcat on the aftermath of ‘that’ strike on the Russian airbase in Crimea. A few thoughts on the multiple impacts (pardon the pun) of this strike 1/14 🧵

https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1557440583878299651

2/ First, I won’t speculate on weapons or the targeting process. There are much more informed views on this out there. I want to focus on the effects on this successful Ukrainian operation.

3/ Second, this will obviously deprive the Russians of a few aircraft. That is good. But the reality is they have a lot more. So while this would have been a desired outcome, there are more important ones.

4/ Third, loss of ammunition and/or fuel holdings on the base is much more serious for the Russians. Remember how Japan failed to take out the fuel tanks at Pearl Harbour? The Ukrainians did not make the same mistake. It will have a longer term impact on aviation operations.

5/ Fourth, the base was reputed to be protected by S400 systems. Even if it wasn’t this system, there would have been layers of AD and other defences which clearly failed. This will impact on Russian confidence in their own systems (a big deal), and that of potential customers.

https://twitter.com/pmakela1/status/1557457368111259652

6/ Fifth, the Ukrainians clearly can now hold large parts of Crimea at risk. And not just airbases. The Black Sea Fleet, it’s fuel, munitions, repair yards and infrastructure are now vulnerable. This places the Russians in a real quandary.

7/ This doesn’t mean they will want to give it up (they won’t) but they will either have to double down on AD, infrastructure hardening and other defences, or rethink what valuable military systems they base there.

8/ But clearly the Ukrainians still have their eye on Crimea - either to seize it back in the medium term (which is always going to be a Ukrainian objective), or in the short term to use it as a stratagem to place the Russians in a strategic dilemma about force deployments.

9/ It is also part of Ukraine’s efforts to let Russia know that while the US doesn’t want Ukraine striking targets in Russia, Russia’s strategically valuable assets will be placed at risk and targeted in other locations. This complicates Russian planning. It isn’t escalation!

10/ Sixth, this is an information victory for Ukraine. It gives its own military and citizens a boost in morale. But it also draws attention back to the conflict and tells western nations that Ukraine is still worth supporting, regardless of energy costs in Europe.

11/ Finally, this is a morale disaster for Russia. Not only do they look incompetent at defending bases a long way from the ‘front lines’, it will have an impact on the morale of their fighting forces. We might see ‘retirement’ of more generals over this.

12/ And, it will have an impact on the morale of Russian civilians at home who have rarely seen such disasters in their media. But we should not over estimate this, given public opinion held up even after the sinking of Moskva. atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainea…

13/ There is no doubt that this has been a grim 24 hours for the Russians. And it is a spectacular success for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. It will force the Russians to make tough choices about the deployment of their forces across the south and east of #Ukraine.

14/ But there remains a long way to go in this war. While this attack says great things about Ukrainian initiative and capabilities, there remains too many uncertainties to use it as a basis for predictions on the ultimate outcome of the war. End.