Thread by @chrisschmitz

Part two of my #cmo research into the #SakiAirBase attack, brief thread.

As suggested by @CommandDevTeam, Iskander is possibly the closest to the "Грім-2" by #ukraine . So I am using a 9M723 Iskander-M in this turn.

The intial #ATACMS was inconclusive

https://twitter.com/chrisschmitz/status/1557552423039864834

@CommandDevTeam The issue that we have is that the #ATACMS simulation shows that the "impact" type, "no warning, no pictures of missles, sudden explosion", can be explained by the hypersonic, vertical impact of SRBM.
What can not be explained is the flight time (too short) and "twin impact".

@CommandDevTeam This is the data of the missle used in this Test #2, and an overview of the "overall situation".
Exactly like yesterday, Launch at Odessa by #ukraine, Target #SakiAirBase , missle used Iskander M to "simulate" the Ukrainian HRIM-2.

@CommandDevTeam As we can see here, the longer range SRBM (both HRIM and Iskander are significantly larger and longer range than ATACMS) take LONGER to reach the target, despite being faster.
This could very well be the match for @rrichcord 's analysis on flight speed observed.

@CommandDevTeam @rrichcord Another item that is seemingly modeled (maybe #cmo team can chip in) is an RV seperation and sharp acceleration in the reentry phase, at around 170km altitude.
This will be very apparent in the speed/altitude graph.

@CommandDevTeam @rrichcord The speed and trajectory of the longer range SRBM is far more extreme than the #ATACMS.
The Missle is pointing 70° down at hypersonic speeds, a mere 15km left to fly, at ~2km/s speed.

This is the speed and altitude plot. While unknown if #ukraine GRIM-2 has the terminal phase acceleration, this flight profile is plausible for observed data.
The dual launch also explains the dual impact.
#SakiAirBase

I hope that this adds some more theory crafting to the #osint community.
Thanks @Iain_Slitherine @CommandDevTeam . Maybe interesting also for @christogrozev @Osinttechnical @OSINT88 @OSINTua @UkraineOsint .