Thread by @WilliamYang120

“#China is #kenyaelections2022 Taiwan’s largest trading partner, yet Beijing’s options for punishing the island’s economy are somewhat limited. That’s because the most extreme measures it could take — like a semiconductor ban, — .... nytimes.com/2022/08/12/bus…

... or a full blockade of Taiwanese ports would surely backfire on the Chinese economy.”

For all of Beijing’s “venting” over Ms. Pelosi’s visit, China’s relations with Taiwan may well return to normal within two or three months, said William Choong, a political scientist at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore.

“For China to effect punitive economic measures and sanctions on Taiwan would be akin to cutting off your nose to spite your face,” he said.

The trade bans announced last week were a reminder to Taiwanese exporters that doing business with China during periods of high geopolitical tension carries risks.

Still, the latest measures are unlikely to be especially painful for an economy that is roughly the size of Switzerland’s and features a sophisticated manufacturing base.

“The political message is greater than the economic hit,” said Chiao Chun, a former trade negotiator for the Taiwanese government.

The two types of Taiwanese fish exports that China restricted last week — chilled white striped hairtail and frozen horse mackerel — are collectively worth about $22 million, less than half the value of the Taiwanese grouper trade that was banned earlier this year.

A popular theory is that Beijing singled out citrus farmers because most orchards are in southern Taiwan, a stronghold for the governing political party, the Democratic Progressive Party, a longtime target of Beijing’s anger.

Future bans may become more targeted to punish industries in counties that are D.P.P. strongholds, said Thomas J. Shattuck, an expert on Taiwan at the University of Pennsylvania’s Perry World House.

There may also be less retaliation against counties run by the Kuomintang opposition party “in an attempt to put a finger on the scale for Taiwan’s local, and even national, elections,” he added.