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Aug 13 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
#ICICIBank: Interesting titbits from ICICI Q1FY23 ppt. Results were a few weeks ago.

1/ SIGNS OF RURAL STRESS ?? Rural loans grew JUST by 8.4% yy (does not even take care of Input inflation) for a Big bank growing fastest... vs Overall Domestic Loans grew 22% YY...
2/ RBI Rate hike of 40bps on May 4th shld have seen some impact on NIMs +vely in June Qtr given high share of External Benchmark (Repo Rate linked) Loans. Nims just +1bps QoQ (Retail/SME +24-33%yy vs low yielding Corp +14%yy shld hav also added to NIMs). Takes me to my next pt.
3/ Total Deposits declined QoQ (Rs10.64trn => 10.5trn) in a period of high Loan growth... the fight for deposits is gonna SPIKE BIG (HDFC merger effect yet 2 impact)..

P.S. FY YTD System Deposit growth weakens to 8%yy vs Credit growth a stellar @ 13-14% YY (WC Loans)
4/ No benefit of Digital sourcing ?? Pg 26: Digital sourcing for retail products continues to rise, but YET, Cost/Income Ratio increased (40%=>42%).. No benefit of Digital sourcing ?
5/ Asset Quality stellar: Pg 36: Rating-wise loan book - big improvement ... will hurt NIMs but also keep Provisioning costs low. This has been known for 2-3yrs now..
6/ Branch n/w has barely grown 4% Since March-20 .. will hurt Liability Franchise.

REFER back to point 3 where Deposit Growth Declined QoQ...
7/ DEBIT CARDS OUTSTANDING FLAT FOR 12 MONTHS !!! Pg 28: No of DEBIT cards has NOT Grown for 4 Qtrs ... How come ? Partially due to point 6
8/ Mortgages: Avg ticket has been stuck at just Rs25 lacs... thats really low.. with an LTV of 60%,... your still talking of a Rs35lac house..
9/ I Overheard: Contributions of top 150 cities to banking system CASA has increased from 55% to 75% in last two odd years. Rural folks apparently lived off their savings ... Refer back to point 1 on Rural
Disclosure: Am invested. This is NOT a stock reco.

Just a fun thread on how to Question ones CONVICTION with data points when everyone including myself are bullish on this bank.....
If you like this THREAD, pls retweet

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The Fact Finder Profile picture
Aug 14
#Indian #CEMENT Stocks: When #NARRATIVE turns 180 deg SOUTH

Trigger: CCI Investigations (This time ITS DIFFERENT)

... A thread.. You will Enjoy it... its almost "fictional" Image
1/ For Years starting 2012, there have been accusations that the Indian Cement Industry worked as a "Cartel" given how resilient Cement Industry Margins were despite sharply falling UTILIZATION levels - The NARRATIVE that supported lofty Valuations given resilient Cashflows
2/ In 2016, the Competition Commission of India (CCI) imposed a $800mn fine on 10 companies for fixing prices, including the Holcim units and UltraTech, but the decision has been challenged since then at the Supreme Court (SC).
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Aug 14
With reaching 7000+ followers, it’s a good time to highlight stuff

(1) if your a whatapp university grad & /or believe in MoShah, request you to Unfollow me
(2) I have a very strong moral conscience
(3) I believe in verifiable Facts
(4) I believe in the OVARIAN LOTTERY
(5) if you are engaging in a debate, pls focus on the argument and Not the person. Here is a good way to categorise your arguments provided by @paulg . FOCUS at the TOP of the PYRAMID (6) Image
(6) I believe that if you Avoid Paying your taxes, your NOT a patriot and your views don’t matter (pls differentiate b/w Avoiding Tax (Bad thing) and not being in the Taxable Bracket (not one’s fault))
(7) I tend to have sympathy & empathy for less fortunate & oppressed
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Aug 12
I am going to make a OUTRAGEOUS prediction... CRUDE OIL is gonna Rally like CRAZY starting October... and my Suspicion is that @IEA Weekly Inventory Data does NOT appear to add up to the Monthly Data which is released with a 8-10 week lag. is JULY Gasoline Demand < July 2020?
2/ I will make a THREAD on this, but let me start with an interesting tit-bit.... Jeff Currie from Goldman Sachs: "Today, commodity markets appear to hold irrational expectations, as prices and inventories fall together, demand beats expectations and supply disappoints."
3/ => basically there is a BIG divergence b/w PAPER Market and PHYSICAL market across commodities. PHYSICAL markets are tight and inventories are falling. Specific to Crude, I dont trust the weekly IEA Data
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Aug 12
Interesting Charts on IMPLIED VOLS & the Market Fundamentals...

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Aug 12
This might give you a flavour of why I think continues to be a BEAR MARKET RALLY !!
The Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Sentiment Index tracking the average recommended allocation to stocks by short-term market timers (Traders) is back to "extreme levels of bullish optimism." Some individual investors are even more bullish than that.' You think ONLY India has rallied? Image
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Jul 25
The JOKE IS ON you Harsh.

(1) You have a problem with me not showing my photo and name and YET i get more people to Join my spaces than you despite you having 3 times the number of followers
(2) You have sent out 30.3k tweets and have 15.5k followers. I have sent 4.9k tweets and have 6.5k followers. So May be you should introspect

(3) I only call out LIES of people. I don’t call people liars. If I did, I am sorry.
(4) you claim to have made 7.5% YTD. That’s superb. Adjusted for Currency which has depreciated by 7.1% since Jan 1st 2022, your Return is flattish. Still VERY GOOD👍

DID YOUR FOLLOWERS who pay for services Make the same Returns ?
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