DATA BACKED Views for BETTERMENT OF SOCIETY. 3Ts: Truth, Transparency, Trust & Empathy. (REQUEST: WhatsApp Uni Grads, Unfollow Me for less stress)
Oct 1 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
#NRI #Remittances will not only #COLLAPSE but they could reverse
A quick thread with implications for the #INR
#NRI #Remittances will not only collapse but they could reverse as outflows unless the DEPOSIT Rates offered by Indian Banks to NRIs are at-least 6-7% $ Rates
BUT that is NOT the Shocking Part, Read the #Thread
#CRICKET is a #RELIGION in India & #TRANSPARENCY should be Foremost
As per the FY17 Annual Report, @BCCI paid an INTEREST Cost of Rs115 Cr (400% YoY) while it’s INTEREST Income of Rs171 Cr (Fell 2% YoY).
BUT WHY were they paying 171Cr of Interest Costs when they had a CASH BALANCE of 3770 Cr (3560 Cr in FY16) ?
May 27 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
UK/US NRIs & Top 2% Indian Residents (30 Mn Income Earners > Rs6lac/per yr) praise #Medical#Facilities in India especially ability to Approach Specialists Directly
Driving though PUNE/MUM/BLR & reaching Hospital in time in a Medical Emergency is Impossible
These people generally forget that when they compare themselves to the US/UK NRIs vs the Indians in India… one is comparing the Avg US/UK citizen with the Top 2% in India
How many People get impacted by #taxterrorism of Newly implemented #TCS (Tax Collected at Source)?
ONLY 4.3 MILLION FAMILIES
That’s JUST 1.2% of INDIAN FAMILIES …. basically the TOP end of
India’s Travelling Abroad in 2019 has Still NOT been exceeded, so let’s use that Number. Indian who Travelled OUTBOUND in 2019 was just 27mn.
May 19 • 9 tweets • 7 min read
THIS IS #BIG ! #Hawala 2.0 Will EXPLODE in India post JULY 1st. Just My opinion:
By IMPLEMENTING 20% Tax Collected On Source (#TCS) on Foreign Spend (Currency, FX cards, Credit Cards, Debit Cards, Transfers), it becomes Increasingly more Cost Effective to Transfer Via #Hawala
If you try and BUY #Foreign Currency in the Black, that spread that used to be 2-3%, will now become 10% possibly
Unused Balances of Loaded Forex Cards will Go at a Premium of 10-12%
May 18 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
WILL #ITC Hive off the Non-Tobacco FMCG ?
During Q4 & FY23, Operating PAT Growth delivered by #ITCs non-tobacco #FMCG business has been No1 amongst Peers.
Revenue (+19% YoY) but EBITDA (+76% YoY) & margins a respectable 13.3%
Will Investors Attach Super High PE to Non-Tobac FMCH biz ?
I was looking at DABUR, its Consold Op Profit and PAT declined in FY23 vs FY22... its 3 yr CAGR is just 6% (that's way lower than inflation). Its Fwd PE and EV/EBITDA is 47 & 34 respectively (marketScreener.com)
May 17 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
I am honestly surprised by #Fintwit waking up to this now !! I realised this on the day of the #Budget itself
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Crystal Ball Gazing into the future!!
CHRONOLOGY 1) Amul Enters a mkt 2) Jul-21: Union govt formed Min of Cooperation under #AmitShah 3) Dec-22: Amendments are made to the Multi-State Co-op Societies Act, allowing State Milk Coops to Merge 4) Dec-22: Amit Shah spoke of a possible #Amul#Nandini Merger
Let me make this very clear - there is EVERY reason to Doubt the #EVM machines. IMHO they can be manipulated several ways -
precisely why every other Western & Developed Asian Democracy has reverted back to Paper Ballot.
REGARDLESS OF ELECTION OUTCOME, #EVMs must be stopped!
Media reports of a difference of 1% of Votes or 6 MILLION votes between Election days & Counting day in 2019
VVPATs were destroyed in 6 months while the rule is 1 year. Court case was going on and yet it was destroyed
Media reports of 1/3rd of the Machines Malfunctioning
Apr 21 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
#KarnatakaElections2023 : why I think #INC & #JDS will win against the #BJP
HOWEVER it will be a #Big #BLUNDER for INC-JDS to Accept that #EVMs are Credible - since EVMs are Not
A #THREAD (not Original but I agree with the Logic)
with the Winds are blowing against the BJP, the BJP has decided to hand it over to Congress-JDS on platter. The resignations of influential leaders is a big give away.
This has multiple benefits for both parties, more so for BJP.
Let’s look at India's nominal GDP that matters to Households & Businesses
EXCLUDING government borrowing & spending) Indians Households & Business Experience ~ZERO GROWTH since 2014-22
This contrasts with the period FY 2008-14 when non-government component of GDP accounted for 38% of nominal growth.
Economists believe these animal spirits to be a vital ingredient for high growth of #SMEs & #Businesses
@PChidambaram_IN mentioned "single-minded focus on containing the deficit"
Chart 1: Absolute Fiscal Deficit is MASSIVELY EXPANDING like a Rocket
Chart 2: As % of GDP, Fiscal Balance (Deficit) is Highest Levels despite LIFE-TIME high Tax/GDP & Low Crude Oil Prices vs FY10-14
Rs20000 per Plate of Food for #G20 comes as No Surprise
#Modinomics CAPEX is GOLD PLATED thereby costing us at-least 50-100% More than what a Frugal Govt should spend or what has been spent by the same institutions in the past.
This is precisely why your Road Cost you Rs75 LACS per 10 Meters of Road (Bangalore- Mysore Expressway) or the User Development Fee at your Airports are being raised by 500% etc
I have written Several Detailed Threads on this subject
Mar 25 • 28 tweets • 14 min read
A #BRILLIANT move by the @FinMinIndia hit 4 birds with one stone by introducing 3 changes in the Finance Bill. The 3 birds.. 1) Higher Tax Collections 2) Capital Controls 3) Bank Deposits 4) Lower cost of Govt funding.
But will HURT GROWTH. Long #THREAD
What are the changes 1) End of LTCG on #debt, Gold ETFs, Overseas or Any mutual fund that invests in less than 35% india equity bought after 1 Apr-23 2) STT Raised by 25% 3) Tax Collected at Source (TCS) raised to 20% (5% earlier) & threshold reduced to Zero (Rs7 lac earlier)
Mar 24 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
UN Report: India's water scarcity expected to get more severe by 2050
IRONICALLY... EXPORTING SUGAR & 20% ETHANOL blending will bleed India DRY
To Save Rs30000cr of FOREX, our #Vishwaguru wants to SPEND 100000 cr