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Aug 14, 2022 22 tweets 9 min read Read on X
Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) released new issue (May-July) of Nawa-e-Ghazwa-e-Hind magazine. There's an increased focus on Bangladesh in this issue. Apart from that, there are articles on India, Rohingya, Taliban and of course Pakistan. ImageImage
The magazine also carries a detailed statement from AQIS where it talks about and justifies killings of critics of Islam/bloggers in Bangladesh. AQIS had previously claimed some of such killings in the country. ImageImage
Similarly, the magazine also carries an AQIS statement on the blasphemy row in India. It is titled "Our mothers will cry for us if we don't defend honour of our prophet" ImageImage
The magazine also carries Eid message of AQIS where it laments the sorry state of Muslims including those in Indian Subcontinent/Kashmir and ends with saying that soon Muslims of South Asia will rise up and there will be supremacy of Islam after Ghazwa-e-Hind. Image
There's an entire article dedicated to the Taliban founder Mullah Omar, referring to him as an ideal Muslim ruler. Image
Second article dedicated to Mullah Omar. Image
There's an entire article dedicated to Mullah Abdul Rasheed Ghazi of the Red Mosque in Islamabad, Pakistan. Image
Then there's a detailed article attempting to explain what is Hindutva in India. Complete with the orange theme. It talks of BJP, the ruling party of India, as well as the 'Sangh Parivar'. Image
The article on Hindutva is 7 pages long and also goes on to talk about Bajrang Dal and Durga Vahini. #India ImageImage
Then there's an article titled "ideological wars" which talks about two economic systems: capitalism and socialism. It goes on to identify both as the invention of Jews. Image
There's even an article on Tosha Khana, a topic which has been recently frequently discussed in Pakistani politics. In this article, al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) talks about how Tosha Khana belongs to the people. Image
There's also an article that talks about the rising public demand in India about the ban on mosque loudspeakers. Image
Then there's an article on the alleged conspiracy to turn the Muslim majority in India-controlled Kashmir into a minority. ImageImage
Further into the magazine, there's more discussion on the Tosha Khana political scandal in Pakistan. It also quotes an article by Pakistani columnist Javed Chaudhry.

Image
Another article in the magazine talks about the negotiations between TTP and Pakistani govt. It approves of the negotiations as well as the TTP demand of reversal of FATA merger, which it calls a conspiracy by kuffri foreign powers. Image
There's also a little condolence message for the mother of Aafia Siddiqui, who died earlier this year. Image
AQIS then goes on to talk about the extradition of Julian Assange, where it mocks the British courts as well as the global order. Image
The magazine also carries full decree on women's hijab/niqab by Afghan Taliban's Ministry for the Propagation of Virtue and the Prevention of Vice. #Afghanistan #AQIS Image
Then there's a detailed article on Bangladesh, where AQIS calls the country an important place for jihad. Then there's yet another detailed article on Hindutva in India. ImageImage
The article on Rohingya Muslims and their jihad goes on to give a historical background of Myanmar/Burma as well as the history of Islam in that part of the world. Image
In an article dedicated to Pakistani jihadi Yasir Mirza AKA Khalid (killed in 2017 in a US drone strike) AQIS talks of how Waziristan was a common ground for jihadis from all over, where the workout teacher was a Turk, artillery teacher a Russian, weapons expert a Hijazi, (cont) Image
explosives expert a Syrian & electronics expert a Pakistani.

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More from @Natsecjeff

Mar 16
Compare the human and material losses sustained by India in the entirety of Kashmir insurgency with the human and material losses sustained by Pakistan in the insurgencies in Balochistan and KP province in the last 20 years only.
I posted the above post on Grok and this is what Grok had to say about the matter:

Comparing the human and material losses sustained by India in the Kashmir insurgency (spanning from 1989 to the present) with those sustained by Pakistan in the insurgencies in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) over the last 20 years (2005–2025) is a complex task due to the differing durations, intensities, and data availability for these conflicts. Below is an analysis based on available estimates, focusing on human losses (fatalities) and, to a lesser extent, material losses, acknowledging the limitations in precise figures, especially for material damages.

Human Losses

India: Kashmir Insurgency (1989–Present)

The insurgency in Jammu and Kashmir began in 1989 and has involved separatist militants, Indian security forces, and civilians. Estimates of total fatalities vary depending on the source:

Official Indian Government Data: As of March 2017, approximately 41,000 people had died, including 14,000 civilians, 5,000 security personnel, and 22,000 militants. This figure covers the period from 1989 to 2017.

Other Estimates: The Jammu and Kashmir Coalition of Civil Society suggests a higher toll of around 70,000 deaths (mostly civilians) from 1989 to the early 2000s. Human Rights Watch reported at least 20,000 civilian deaths by 2006. Pro-Pakistan groups like the Hurriyat have claimed up to 80,000 deaths, though these figures are less substantiated.

Post-2017 Trends: Violence has significantly declined since the peak in the 1990s and early 2000s. From 2004 onward, annual deaths have dropped sharply, with the Institute for Conflict Management (ICM) reporting 47 security personnel deaths in 2022 and around 60 total fatalities (30 security forces, 30 civilians) in Kashmir in 2023. Extrapolating conservatively from 2017 to March 2025, assuming an average of 100–150 deaths per year (based on recent trends), an additional 800–1,200 deaths might be added, bringing the total to approximately 41,800–42,200 (official) or up to 71,000–80,000 (higher estimates).

Thus, a reasonable range for total fatalities in the Kashmir insurgency from 1989 to March 2025 is 42,000–80,000, with the majority occurring before 2005.

Pakistan: Balochistan and KP Insurgencies (2005–2025)

Pakistan has faced two distinct insurgencies in the last 20 years: the Baloch nationalist insurgency in Balochistan (intensifying since 2003–2004) and the Islamist insurgency in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), primarily led by the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), escalating after 2004.

Balochistan Insurgency:

The Baloch insurgency has been a low-to-mid-intensity conflict with periodic escalations. Reliable comprehensive data is scarce, but estimates can be pieced together:

From 2003 to 2012, the radical Islamist group Jundallah (active in Balochistan and Iran) alone caused around 296 deaths in Iran, with additional unquantified casualties in Pakistan.

In 2024, over 900 attacks were attributed to Baloch insurgent groups (e.g., Baloch Liberation Army—BLA), with significant incidents like Operation Herof in August 2024 killing over 70 people in a single day.

Analyst estimates suggest thousands of deaths over two decades. For example, the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) and other sources indicate that between 2004 and 2019, Balochistan saw consistent militant activity, with annual fatalities likely in the hundreds during peak years (e.g., 2006 after Akbar Bugti’s death, or 2022–2024 escalations).

A conservative estimate for 2005–2025 might range from 5,000–10,000 deaths, including militants, security forces, and civilians, based on sporadic high-impact attacks and ongoing low-level violence.

KP Insurgency (War in North-West Pakistan):

The insurgency in KP, often termed Pakistan’s "war on terror," began in 2004 and peaked between 2007 and 2014, transitioning to a lower-intensity conflict by 2017. Data is more robust here:

(Cont)
The Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) reported 282 security personnel deaths in 2022 alone, alongside 311 civilian fatalities, totaling nearly 600 deaths in one year across Pakistan, predominantly in KP and Balochistan.

From 2004 to 2019, SATP data suggests over 60,000 deaths in the broader "war on terror" (including KP, FATA, and spillovers), with KP being the epicenter. This includes 5,000–6,000 security personnel, 30,000–35,000 militants, and 20,000–25,000 civilians.

Post-2019, violence resurged after the Taliban’s 2021 Afghanistan victory. CRSS and SATP note 2023 as particularly deadly, with over 1,000 fatalities (security forces, civilians, militants) in KP and Balochistan combined, with KP bearing the brunt.

For 2005–2025, focusing on KP, fatalities likely range from 40,000–50,000, adjusting for the pre-2005 minimal activity and post-2019 resurgence.

Combined Total (Balochistan + KP): Adding Balochistan (5,000–10,000) and KP (40,000–50,000), the total human losses in Pakistan’s insurgencies from 2005 to March 2025 are approximately 45,000–60,000.

Material Losses

India: Kashmir Insurgency

Economic Impact: The Kashmir conflict has disrupted tourism, agriculture, and infrastructure development in Jammu and Kashmir. Estimates suggest billions of dollars in lost economic potential:

A 2018 study by the Jammu and Kashmir government estimated annual economic losses at $1–2 billion during peak violence (1990s–2000s), with cumulative losses possibly exceeding $50 billion by 2025, factoring in destroyed infrastructure (e.g., schools, bridges) and military spending.

Indian forces captured 40,000 firearms, 150,000 explosive devices, and 6 million rounds of ammunition from 1989 to 2002, indicating significant material losses for militants, though Indian military costs (e.g., troop deployment, border fencing) are harder to quantify precisely.

Military Costs: India maintains over 500,000 troops in Kashmir at times, with annual defense spending in the region likely in the billions, though not disaggregated from national budgets.

Pakistan: Balochistan and KP Insurgencies

Balochistan:

The insurgency has targeted strategic assets like gas pipelines, railways, and the Gwadar port (part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor—CPEC). Attacks on infrastructure have caused losses in the hundreds of millions annually—e.g., gas supply disruptions cost Pakistan $100–200 million yearly in the 2000s–2010s.

CPEC projects (valued at $62 billion overall) have faced delays and damages, with specific attacks (e.g., 2022 Karachi University bombing) disrupting Chinese investments.

KP:

The KP insurgency devastated entire towns (2007–2014), displacing millions and destroying infrastructure. The Pakistani government estimated $100 billion in economic losses from the broader "war on terror" by 2014, with KP bearing a significant share (e.g., military operations like Zarb-e-Azb cost $3–5 billion).

Rebuilding efforts and military campaigns (e.g., Operation Radd-ul-Fasaad) have added billions more in costs.

Combined Estimate: Material losses in Balochistan and KP from 2005 to 2025 likely exceed $50–100 billion, combining infrastructure damage, economic disruption, and military expenditures.

Comparison

Human Losses:

India (Kashmir, 1989–2025): 42,000–80,000 deaths.

Pakistan (Balochistan + KP, 2005–2025): 45,000–60,000 deaths.

Observation: Pakistan’s losses over 20 years are comparable to or slightly exceed India’s lower-end estimates over 36 years, despite the shorter timeframe. The Kashmir conflict’s deadliest phase (1990s–2000s) skews its total higher in some estimates, but Pakistan’s KP insurgency alone rivals Kashmir’s scale, with Balochistan adding further toll.

Material Losses:

India: Likely $50 billion+ in economic and military costs over 36 years.

Pakistan: $50–100 billion over 20 years, concentrated in KP’s intense phase (2007–2014) and Balochistan’s strategic disruptions.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 19, 2023
BREAKING:

IDF releases footage showing an Israeli hostage being taken inside Gaza's Al-Shifa Hospital by Hamas terrorists during the October 7 massacre in Israel.
A second CCTV footage shows another hostage (this one injured) from Israel brought into the Al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza on Oct. 7th.

About these two videos, the IDF says one hostage is Thai and the other a Nepali.
Image
Read 28 tweets
Jun 24, 2023
BREAKING:

Initial unconfirmed reports of a suicide bombing by a female bomber in Turbat, Balochistan. Developing. #Pakistan
Just saw the photos of the remains of the female suicide bomber who carried out today's attack in Balochistan. Damn. She's been blown to pieces but her severed head is surprisingly pretty intact. One security personnel dead and three wounded. #Pakistan
Read 8 tweets
Mar 9, 2023
Taliban's Balkh province governor Muhammad Dawood Muzamil has been assassinated in his office this morning in a suicide bombing.

#Afghanistan ImageImage
Taliban's spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid:

"With great sadness we received the news that Balkh Governor Alhaji Mullah Mohammad Daud Muzamal was martyred in an explosion by the enemies of Islam.
An investigation into the incident is underway." Image
Footage from inside Taliban's Balkh governor's office where he was assassinated in a suicide bombing. #Afghanistan
Read 8 tweets
Mar 8, 2023
Russia's Ambassador to Afghanistan Dmitry Zhirnov:

Taliban are a reality, so we are working with them. The financial blockade by US has stalled Taliban's efforts to fight [ISKP's] terrorism.

tass.com/pressreview/15…
Russia's Ambassador to Afghanistan Dmitry Zhirnov:

Russia has established working contacts with the Taliban. Several Russian delegations visited Kabul. Afghan Chamber of Commerce attended St. Petersburg Economic Forum. Trade turnover has increased 40% in one year.
Russia's Ambassador to Afghanistan Dmitry Zhirnov: One month ago, Russian businessmen from Tatarstan signed a memorandum on development of the coal thermal power sector in Afghanistan in Kabul. It is a trilateral project with Iran and Pakistan.
tass.com/economy/1585047
Read 4 tweets
Mar 8, 2023
Women supporters of Imran Khan shaming Pakistani policemen while comparing them with the Indian Army and telling them to go conquer Kashmir.

Background: Currently there's a massive crackdown going on against Imran Khan supporters in Lahore, Pakistan.
Read 12 tweets

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