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Pan Paragraf

@PanParagraf

Aug 18, 2022 • 15 tweets • 7 min read • Read on X

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My last #Terra $LUNA tweet.

We’re approaching a big announcement for former $STT holders but before we move on I want to summarize in one place my story and what I feel straight from my ♥️.

Keep your belts fastened and let’s go with a big, fat🧵 /1

My story with CT started at late 2020 when I started to tweet my deep analysis about crypto projects. I entered this industry without any connections with only 70 followers, encouraged to do so by my friends who made a very decent $ with my analyses.

/2

I thought why not to publish them for free as I can help more people.

The success ratio of my predictions helped me to build amazing community of 10k followers within a very short period of time (If some of you still remember that time please let me know in the comment 🙏)

/3

What surprised me the most, is the best financial results came exactly at the time I decided to share it on CT. This was a result of a big pressure coming from the community which gave me razor sharp motivation to get even deeper with my due diligence.

/4

As you know one of my best picks was $LUNA. I bought it for 0.45$ in December 2020 and my life has changed forever. I was amazed by the vision of decentralized finance, innovative tokenomics and how smooth is the UI of the Terra chain.

/5

@StarTerra_io

Seeing rapid rise in devs activity I predicted building a launchpad could be a perfect play.

It was a tough challenge but long story short, this was the time I felt the strength of community. With your help I found the right people and this is how @StarTerra_io was founded.

/6

@m_mkurdziel

I decided to take a risk, left my fiat job and focus fully on building. Our amazing IT team led by @m_mkurdziel @tomkowalczyk helped us to stay ahead of competition and this how $STT became one of the first Terra blue chips from outside the TFL based projects.

/7

The hype around the launch was far beyond our expectations and I’m not gonna lie, we weren’t 100% ready for that. We gathered above 100k people on our socials, Kucoin and Binance halted withdrawals of people willing to send their LUNA to buy $STT on the date of our listing.
/8

@StarTerra_io

This massive buying pressure, low initial supply, together with bots activity led to the supply shock that took $STT price from 0.12$ up to 30$ for a moment and stabilizing in 5-8$ range.

This made @StarTerra_io one of the most profitable listings in Q3 2022

/9

I need to admit I wasn’t personally prepared for such a big hype.

With increasing number of projects applying for IDO the number of work has doubled or tripled while I was struggling to delegate the tasks. I was literally working 16 hours a day.

/10

This all lead to couple of personal consequences. I was fighting with anxiety and depression, I’ve lost the fun arising from being in crypto and first and foremost I didn’t have time to do what put me here where I am in the first place, which is making analysis.

/11

This brings me finally to the point of Terra collapse. $LUNA itself is not anything that affected me personally. I’ve been repeating couple of times I kept selling it on the way up which lead me to life-changing over 100x profit.

/12

Something which hit me much harder is the $UST depeg. The fact I focused fully on running businesses made me stop focusing so much on the market. I paid a price for that as I converted my UST on the 0.50$ level loosing in result half of my previous $LUNA profits.

/13

Summing this up, it was a priceless lesson for me and the fact it didn’t kill me makes me feel much stronger. I started to take care of my health, delegate tasks and work on the recovery behind the scenes. I am also really thankful my team to support it ♥️

/14

This month we’ll finally share the fruits of this great effort.I hope after reading migration overview next week you’ll share our team excitement.

The next chapter of $STT journey is around the corner and you are all invited to be part of it 🫵.

GM!👊
#GameChanger

/15

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More from @PanParagraf

Pan Paragraf

@PanParagraf

Nov 24

I don’t tweet about the market very often — but when I do, you probably want to read it. The last time I posted about $ETH long, it was spot on, right before the massive rally.

Here are my 6 arguments for long ETH — based on macro, liquidity and Ethereum-specific catalysts nobody seems to talk about 🧵👇

1⃣The Trigger: Fed Rates

Let's maybe start with what drives markets todays. Here’s my chart of the S&P 500 versus the odds of a 25 bps rate cut on @Polymarket.

As you can see, U.S. equities began pulling back exactly when the probability of rate cuts started falling.
It was looking ugly — and then something changed...

On November 20th, John C. Williams appeared and said the magic line:
“I still see room for a further adjustment in the near term to the target range for the federal funds rate.”

Why does one comment matter so much?

Because it wasn’t “just someone” from the Fed.

John C. Williams is:
-> President of the New York Fed
-> Vice Chair of the FOMC
-> part of the Powell–Jefferson–Williams “triumvirate”
-> a member who has never dissented
-> someone the Fed uses when it wants the public to hear the real leadership stance

He’s not improvising.
If Williams says it, it’s the line from the top.

That’s why Polymarket repriced the odds instantly,
and that’s why the market reacted immediately.
And that’s exactly why I opened my long the moment I saw this.

2⃣Liquidity stress ending

Now let's move on to another crucial factor - liquidity. And don’t worry — this isn’t another “M2 vs Bitcoin” chart.

The liquidity shock didn’t originate in crypto — it started in the U.S. Treasury market.

It began with the prolonged government shutdown, which forced Treasury to rebuild its cash balances aggressively. Instead of refilling TGA to the projected ~$850B, it rocketed all the way to $1 trillion.

That’s where the real stress began.

Why?

Because when Treasury floods the market with bills, Primary Dealers are obligated to absorb that issuance.

But thanks to Donald Trump’s record-breaking deficit, the supply this time was so large and so sudden that dealers simply couldn’t keep up. Their balance sheets were already tight — they were hitting regulatory walls.

So as the bills piled up faster than dealers could take them:
-> balance-sheet capacity collapsed,
-> Treasury auctions strained,
-> funding markets started breaking.

Then the regulatory constraints snapped into place.

SLR/eSLR limits meant dealers could not expand their balance sheets enough to absorb the wave of issuance.

And that triggered the chain reaction:
-> SOFR spiked
-> repo volatility exploded
-> dealers stopped taking new paper
-> basis traders (levered 20–50x) saw funding costs jump intraday
-> basis trades unwound
-> macro funds deleveraged
-> crypto was the first casualty...

As a result, the NY Fed’s Reserve Demand Elasticity hit the highest reading in history.
We entered RDE > 0 — a full-blown liquidity stress regime.

Now here’s the key:

The shutdown-driven liquidity shock is finally reversing, and the numbers speak for themselves:
-> since Oct 31, TGA has already injected ~$100B back into the system
-> JPM projects another ~250–350B of liquidity release into year-end,
-> And even after TGA refills back to its 850B target, reserves will remain comfortably above the danger zone.

Every additional dollar flowing out of TGA pushes SOFR lower, stabilizes funding, rebuilds reserve buffers, and removes the exact pressure that forced basis trades and macro funds to delever.

What does that mean going forward?

1. Funding markets normalize → no more panic unwinds
2. Repo stabilizes → Primary Dealers can absorb issuance again
3. RDE collapses → market moves out of stress regime
4. Hedge Fundss re-lever → basis trade turns back on
5. Crypto becomes the highest-beta liquidity winner

Read 9 tweets

Pan Paragraf

@PanParagraf

Jun 13, 2023

🕵️‍♂️🔍 Uncovered DETAILS of Polygon's $MATIC token evolution! Revealing my deep-dive ANALYSIS and SPECULATIONS ahead of July 10th's big reveal. You won't believe what's coming!

Please hit❤️and🔁to feed the algorithm and let's take a deep dive in 🧵/1

@sandeepnailwal

First, let's step into the shoes of @sandeepnailwal, Polygon's founder:

- your token is facing an SEC attack
- zkEVM roll-up is underappreciated due to a lack of airdrop incentives
- emissions of $MATIC token rewards for validators will inevitably run out /2

What's your move?🤔

You can either create a new token and airdrop it to the previous $MATIC holders or rebrand and upgrade the existing one.

Why?

Well, with a new token design, you can finally capture value from Polygon products ecosystem like Supernets, zkEVM or Miden /3

Read 10 tweets

Pan Paragraf

@PanParagraf

Feb 22, 2023

@Delphi_Digital

I’ve just read the monthly gaming roundup by @Delphi_Digital so you don't have to.

These numbers speak volumes...
It seems that January has already set the stage for what is coming for web3 gaming in 2023.

Here are my top takeaways from the report👇
1/

A triple-digit growth (!) of the top #gaming tokens in the past 30 days alone foreshadows a bounce back from last year’s lows.

As of Jan 25, the top 10 gaming tokens by market cap have increased in price by at least 50%, with some seeing as much as 200% growth from Jan 1.
2/

And not all of these projects had big announcements during this time, making the growth all the more intriguing.

The sector has also seen a number of token unlocks from $APE, $APT, and $AXS, which, combined with increasing prices, contributed to the overall growth.
3/

Read 8 tweets

Pan Paragraf

@PanParagraf

Sep 20, 2021

This whole escalation of fud, some xenofobic comments towards me and Polish community made that something just simply broke in myself so regardless of consequences I am gonna expose myself and deep from my heart share you the story of my life. 👇
/1

How is it started?
This is literally one of the first tweet of mine regarding crypto and it was made all about $LUNA & Terra. This but also the next series of quality FA unexpectedly lead to the amazing rise of my community from a few up to 15k followers within only 3 months
/2

@StarTerra_io

Then something even more unexpected happened. Most of you know the story behind @StarTerra_io its well written in intro to the our whitepaper and described on interviews. But what I've never revealed is my first reaction to the @stablekwon enthiusiastic feedback...
/3

Read 17 tweets

Pan Paragraf

@PanParagraf

Jul 20, 2021

@StarTerra_io

Since I'm focusing on @StarTerra_io I am not able to produce quality content but this night I decided to take the night...

In this deep analysis, I'm gonna prove my bullish case and explain why July 21 can be a twist in $BTC narrative and how @elonmusk can contribute to this👇

Let's start with the current market conditions. At the moment of writing this tweet, it looks like we are completely screwed. The market is full of blood, your favorite influencers turned bearish, some of them disappeared. Writing you're bullish is kind of PR suicide.

Anyway, I am going to take that risk and try to build my bullish case. First, something I'm sure you are tired of - fear and greed index.
When you compare it with $BTC chart you can see the moments of cumulated extreme fear were the best moments to buy:
Dec 18'
Mar 20'
Jul 21'

Read 8 tweets

Pan Paragraf

@PanParagraf

May 1, 2021

@unizen

$ZCX Analysis & Game Plan:
1⃣ In my opinion deep liquidity exchanges like @unizen @CCAI_Official or @wootraderS will be a significant trend this year.
2⃣ $ZCX token holders will benefit from this trend as it captures value from the whole platform's development

@unizen_io

3⃣
🚀First $ZCX burning comes from every paid listing on the @unizen_io CEX module
🚀Another demand pressure comes from market bought & burnt throughout the year with a % of platform profits
🚀Moreover $ZCX provides you with reduced Trading Fees

4⃣ But let's get to the benefits of staking $ZCX:
🚀Multi-asset staking
- you can earn simultaneously a multitude of different tokens (i.e. $RUNE, $LINK, $BTC) at the same time
🚀 ZenX launchpad
- you gain access to early seed rounds for hot up and coming projects in the space

Read 9 tweets

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