Let's talk about what this actually means for Iran's nuclear program:

-Iran will ship out/blend down more than 238 kg of 20% enriched uranium

-Iran will ship out/blend down more than 43 kg of 60% enriched uranium

1/ #IranDeal
-Iran will remove about 1,000 IR-6 centrifuges

-Iran will remove about 1,000 IR-2 centrifuges

-Iran will remove about 1,000 IR-1 centrifuges

-Iran will remove more than 500 IR-4 centrifuges

-Iran will stop enrichment at Fordow & remove all uranium from the site

2/
-Iran will be prohibited from finishing the Arak reactor based on the original design, as it has threatened to do

-Iran will be prohibited from building a new heavy water reactor (as required by Iran's 2020 nuclear law) until 2031

3/
-Iran will implement the additional protocol to its safeguards agreement and modified Code 3.1

-Iran's uranium enrichment will be monitored in real time by the IAEA

-IAEA will have certain nuclear sites under continuous surveillance

4/
What does this mean?

Iran's nuclear program will be subject to the most intrusive monitoring regime every negotiated, providing the best possible assurance that any diversion of nuclear materials or illicit activity will be quickly detected.

5/
Iran's breakout will increase from less than 10 days to ~6 months, giving the international community time to react if Iran tries to dash for a bomb - time that we do not have now.

Restoring the #JCPOA would be a clear win for nonproliferation and US national security.
6/6

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More from @KelseyDav

Jun 14
The US may disagree with IAEA DG Grossi that efforts to restore the #IranDeal will be dealt a "fatal blow" in 3-4 weeks as a result of Iran's decision to unplug 27 cameras, but the agency's assessment is still significant in the domestic debate & could effect the INARA process 1/
If the IAEA cannot reliably reconstruct a history of Iran's nuclear activities during this period of reduced transparency, it will fuel speculation that Iran diverted nuclear materials for a covert weapons or hedging program. 2/
Even if there is no evidence of diversion, Iran's history of lying and obfuscation about its nuclear program will drive concerns about illegal activity. 3/
Read 19 tweets
May 8
4 years ago today, former President Trump made the irresponsible decision to withdraw the US from the #IranDeal - an agreement that had proved to be effective & verifiable in blocking Iran's pathways to the bomb.
Lets examine how damaging that decision has turned out to be 1/
Trump withdrew despite members of his own cabinet acknowledging that Iran was complying with its obligations. He also isolated the US by leaving the deal over the objections of key US allies that view the nuclear deal as critical for their security.
dw.com/en/frances-emm…

2/
Certain Trump administration officials even opposed the decision to withdraw. In Oct. 2017 then Defense Secretary Mattis said it was in the US national security interest to remain in the nuclear deal.

theguardian.com/us-news/2017/o…

3/
Read 16 tweets
Apr 26
Back from leave and disappointed to see that the future of the #IranDeal remains in limbo and so focused on the politics of modifying IRGC sanctions.

I'm surprised to see so little discussion about the nuclear cost Biden will pay if he fails to act. 1/
Lest we forget, the JCPOA is a nuclear deal. Designed to address a decades long nuclear crisis and block Iran’s pathways to nuclear weapons. The imperative of restoring the deal's guardrails is getting lost in the debate about the political cost of delisting the IRGC. 2/
While Biden would certainly pay a price for delisting the IRGC, effective nonproliferation policy that benefits U.S. security, not domestic politics should guide decision making on JCPOA. 3/
Read 18 tweets
Sep 8, 2021
US Sec of State Blinken warned today that the US is getting "closer to the point at which a strict return to compliance with the #JCPOA does not reproduce the benefits that that agreement achieved"

That's not surprising given the bleak picture pained by the IAEA's new report 1/
The current IAEA monitoring situation is particularly serious. In addition to Iran's refusal to official clarify if the February 2021 special monitoring arrangement is still in place, Tehran has not responded to requests by the IAEA to access remote surveillance equipment. 2/
Under the Feb 2021 special arrangement, this equipment is recording information that will be given the IAEA if the JCPOA is restored. The data will ideally allow the IAEA to maintain knowledge about Iran's nuclear activities during the period when Iran limited inspector access.3/
Read 20 tweets
May 14, 2019
Today, both the NYT & Newsweek repeated claims that Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons - it is irresponsible & dangerous reporting to let these claims stand unchecked. #IranDeal 1/
Both Pompeo & Bolton have muddied the water with loose rhetoric describing Iran’s nuclear program that implies Tehran has an active nuclear weapons program - despite US intelligence assessments and IAEA statements saying otherwise. 2/
Pompeo said April 22 that one of the U.S. demands of Iran is to “end your pursuit of nuclear weapons.”
state.gov/secretary/rema…

Bolton said in February that Iran “continues to seek nuclear weapons.”
3/
Read 8 tweets
May 21, 2018
US Secretary of State Pomepo is talking about the #IranDeal right now - c-span.org/networks/?chan…
Pompeo reiterates an often used criticism of the #IranDeal, namely that the agreement expires. This mischaracterization ignores key provisions that remain in place in perpetuity, such as more intrusive monitoring & a prohibition on weaponization activities
Pompeo says the Trump administration will ensure that Iran has no path to a nuclear weapon, by applying “unprecedented financial pressure” & the “strongest sanctions in history.”
Read 10 tweets

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