Olga Ivshina Profile picture
Aug 24 11 tweets 4 min read
Russian Ministry of Defence is trying to put a tap on all info about problems of the Russian army in #Ukraine. But dead soldiers keep telling their stories-and that narrative is very different from Moscow is trying to show. Here is what we found. Based on a study of 5700+ cases
BBC's analysis suggests particularly heavy losses among junior officers. Overall, officers constitute 17% of Russian fatalities. But data suggests, that junior officers in particular are 3 times more likely to die than their subordinates.
Reasons: in the Russian army, jn officers have to make important decisions to direct the course of combat. Majority of them are very young – often promoted to lieutenant at the age of 21. With that little experience they have to find out how to achieve the goals set by generals.
In terms of overall losses, infantrymen and paratroopers have been the hardest hit. As of August 18th, 20 per cent of all the identified dead served in the airborne units, and a further 20 per cent in motorised rifle units.
The group with the fastest-growing casualty rate consists of those termed ‘volunteers’ by the Russian officials. More often than not, the category includes men over the age of 40 from regions with a low average salary. They undergo only 3-7 days of training before deployment
Russian officials are increasingly unlikely to publish the deaths of soldiers fighting in #Ukraine. So BBC is continuing to monitor graveyards in different regions of Russia to gain a fuller picture of #russianlosses in #UkraineWar. We have studied 45 graveyards all over Russia
41 of 45 cemeteries had graves of servicemen whose deaths had not been publicly announced. In the last 2weeks alone, we have revealed a further 15 similar burials, including those of 3 officers.
Citizens of other post-Soviet countries are also fighting and dying in Ukraine as soldiers of the Russian army. BBC knows of the deaths of at least 13 natives of Kyrgyzstan, 9 from Tajikistan, 12 from South Ossetia – the breakaway region of Georgia - and at least 1 from Moldova.
Overall, to win a modern conflict, one need well-trained, mobile, motivated attack infantry. And the Russian army has problems in this area, experts say. As a result, paratroopers, marines and Wagner Group mercenaries are called upon to resolve infantry tasks.
First months of war also showed that Russian had huge troubles with communication and logistics.After secure channels were established between headquarters and fighting units,colonels and generals began to make less often trips to the frontline –and consequently died less often.
Further detailed analysis is available in English in our article. Please read and share, if you find it interesting bbcrussian.substack.com/p/lost-battali…

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More from @oivshina

May 31
What do we know about Russian military losses? June update. BBC keeps compiling a list of Russian soldiers killed in action. It already has 2 times more names that Russian MOD has acknowledged. Thread.
We managed to identify 3052 Russian soldiers who were killed in Ukraine and buried in Russia. Real losses are definitely higher. That's why we also try to examine cemeteries in towns and cities of Russia. Some of them already have separate rows for servicemen killed in Ukraine
E.g. studying a cemetery in Ulyanovsk we found 42 graves of soldiers killed after the start of the invasion. 21 of them (50%) were never mentioned anywhere. In Kazan and Stavropol cemeteries -30% of names were previously unknown. Same trend at other 9 cemeteries we studied
Read 18 tweets
Apr 13
What do we know about #Russian army conscripts deployed to #Ukraine? Information about that is very limited and patchy, but here are some facts (guy on the left in this photo- Nikolay Polshikov, Russian conscript, #POW in Ukraine) #RussianUkrainianWar Image
According to #Russian law a conscript can sign a contract and after 3 months of service. After that service in the army can become his paid job. However even before this war, there were many stories about conscripts allegedly being pressured to sign a contract.
“Each unit has a plan - how many contracts must be signed each year. But some vacancies remain open for a while - so officers in charge often trick conscripts into signing a contract or simply pressure and bully them” - told me one former officer.
Read 12 tweets
Apr 12
What do we know about background and social position of #Russian soldiers, who are deployed in #Ukraine? BBC analysed publicly available info about 1083 Russian servicemen, who were killed in action. Here are some tendencies were found out. Thread
Regions that reported the highest number of the losses are so called depressed or semi depressed, ie areas with high unemployment and a low standard of living. In Dagestan (93 reported deaths) or Buryatia (53 rep. deaths) it’s very hard to find a job (let alone well paid job)
In #Dagestan unemployment rate is 15% (compared to average 4% in #Russia), average salary - 400 USD. If one joins army as private they can around 500 USD, but army also provide them food, uniform and a place to live. So a bigger part of the salary remains in your pocket
Read 15 tweets
Apr 11
Putin's spokesman said Russia “have suffered significant losses of troops". BBC was able to verify identities of the 1,083 Russian servicemen killed in Ukraine (they were reported by local officials or media in Russia). So what do we see and know? Thread
Even if we talk about confirmed losses only - there is evidence that Russia has lost some of its best specialists, incl. elite spec. forces operators, highly skilled fighter pilots and some experienced commanders.
217 out of 1083 confirmed losses - ie over 20% - are officers. This includes 10 colonels, 20 lieutenant colonels, 31 majors and 155 junior officers (ranging from second lieutenant to captain).\3
Read 12 tweets
Mar 28
What do we definitely know about #Russian military casualties in #Ukraine? BBC in-depth research of verified military losses found some interesting tendencies \1
Roughly 20% of all verified losses are officers. The research was based on analysis of official statements by Russian governors, local media reports, posts by official accounts of universities, schools etc.
20% is a huge number. But it doesn't mandatory mean that every 5th Russian servicemen killed on a battlefield is an officer. May be officers are removed from the battlefield more quickly or may be they are given more prominent place in local news announcements
Read 26 tweets

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