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@BudgetHawks

Aug 26

@WhiteHouse

🚨Two days after announcing it would cancel large amounts of student debt, the @WhiteHouse has failed to produce either a cost estimate or a proposal for how it would be paid for. We've estimated the cost of the full plan to be ~$500 billion.

A statement from @MayaMacGuineas ⤵️

"This certainly could be one of the most expensive executive actions in history, and yet the White House can’t tell us what it will cost. Either the White House doesn’t know the cost of their debt cancellation proposal, or they know and won’t share it with the public..."

"...it is hard to say which is worse.

While the Administration says it can’t fully estimate the cost, it has no problem estimating how many borrowers would benefit, who they are, or how the plan will affect inflation. Even as it can’t tell us what the plan costs,..."

Read 12 tweets

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@BudgetHawks

Aug 25

➡️Yesterday's headlines focused on the broad cancellation of student loan debt.

And at a cost of ~$360 billion, that's a big part of the Administration's proposed plan.

But a set of income-driven repayment changes costing ~$𝟭𝟮𝟬 𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 also deserves attention.

🧵⤵️

1️⃣ Among the proposed IDR plan changes:

➤ Raising the amount of income excluded from calculations from 150% of the federal poverty line to 225%.

This will lower the amount owed per month for all borrowers in IDR. It also reduces many lower-income borrowers’ payments to $0.

2️⃣
➤ Changing the percentage owed on “discretionary income” for undergraduate loans to 5%, compared to 10% currently required in other plans.

Read 8 tweets

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@BudgetHawks

Aug 24

@POTUS

🚨Today @POTUS announced his plan to cancel $10k/borrower of student debt by executive action for individuals making <$125k and up to $20k for Pell Grant recipients while extending the current repayment pause until December 31st.

A statement from @MayaMacGuineas: ⤵️

"This announcement is gallingly reckless – with the national debt approaching record levels and inflation surging, it will make both worse. Policymakers have already spent $300 billion on student debt relief—none of it paid for, and this would add another $400 to $600 billion..."

"...again, none of it paid for. This action by the White House is completely at odds with their talk of deficit reduction. It could add twice as much to the deficit as was just saved from the #InflationReductionAct, completely eliminating any deficit reduction and then some."

Read 7 tweets

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@BudgetHawks

Jun 3

🚨NEW ANALYSIS🚨 The #Medicare Trustees' report shows that the Part A HI trust fund is only 6 years from insolvency, facing a large shortfall with rapidly-growing spending. The outlook is slightly improved, but substantial structural imbalances remain.

crfb.org/papers/analysi….

1️⃣ The HI trust fund is only 𝟲 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀 from insolvency.

The Trustees project the trust fund will be insolvent by 2028, just six years from now but two years later than projected last year. At that point, provider + insurer payments would have to be cut by 10% (20% by 2046).

2️⃣ Total #Medicare spending will grow significantly.

All parts of Medicare will grow rapidly in the coming decade. Gross Medicare spending will ⬆️ from 3.9% of GDP in 2022 to 5.4% in 2032 and 6.2% in 2045. This rise is driven partially by the rising cost of #MedicareAdvantage.

Read 8 tweets

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@BudgetHawks

Jun 3

🚨NEW ANALYSIS🚨 The latest #SocialSecurity projections show that the program is only 13 years from insolvency and faces large & rising imbalances. Though finances have improved slightly, they remain perilous, and time is running out to save the program.

crfb.org/papers/analysi….

1️⃣ #SocialSecurity is only 𝟭𝟯 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀 from insolvency.

The theoretical combined trust funds comprising #SocialSecurity (OASI+SSDI) will exhaust their reserves by 2035, when today's 54-year-olds reach full retirement age and today's youngest retirees turn 75. ⤵️

2️⃣ #SocialSecurity faces large and rising imbalances.

The Trustees project the program will run cash deficits of nearly $2.5 trillion over the next decade – the equivalent of 2.1% taxable payroll or 0.8% of GDP. 75-year actuarial imbalance totals 3.4% of payroll or 1.2% of GDP.

Read 7 tweets

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@BudgetHawks

Jun 2

🚨NEW🚨 Today's trustees reports show that the #SocialSecurity and #Medicare Hospital Insurance (HI) #trustfunds are rapidly approaching insolvency; these funding imbalances will require #TrustFundSolutions to prevent broad benefit cuts.

More: crfb.org/blogs/trustees….

➡️OASI depletion will occur by 2034, while SSDI will not deplete within the projection window.

On a theoretical combined basis, assuming revenue is allocated between the trust funds in the years between OASI and SSDI insolvency, #SocialSecurity will become insolvent by 2035. ⤵️

➡️Upon insolvency, all beneficiaries will face a 20% across-the-board benefit cut, which will grow to 26% by 2096. The Trustees estimate a 75-year actuarial shortfall of 3.42% of taxable payroll for #SocialSecurity – lower than 2021's estimate, but higher than any prior year.

Read 4 tweets

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