Share this page!

Cycle Bottom Profile picture
Twitter logo
Aug 25 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
#uranium return run down from recent lows assuming #sput can drive the next up leg by a reasonable premium for 1 to 3 months: sector returns +50- 75%

Best in class Explorers <25m caps =+150-250%

Best in class Project Developers <125m cap = +100-175%

Pure ETFs +50-75%
Note new entrants into the #uranium ETFs for Sept and April for extra torque, watch for caps above US$50m not in the ETFs yet.
Combined ETF new entry often equates to 5-7% of issued shares for a nano #uranium stock this can be transformational given the short rebalancing timeframes.

Often, in bull market conditions the 2 month returns prior to entry can be 50-100% on triple ETF entry.
One example is $AEE entry into $URNM either Sept or April, we would expect the stock to achieve over 100-125% from recent 15c lows.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Cycle Bottom

Cycle Bottom Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @BULLReturns

Cycle Bottom Profile picture
Aug 23
What will $AHQ bottoming be 4Q 2022 as it concludes it's financing to optimize production?
Emotional response: negative short term outcome breeds further negativity....we generally look for these situations to act counter to the prevailing sentiment (provides great entry points).
Note at 50c prior to the announcement of the start up issues (slow economies of scale Vs fixed selling prices, insufficient capital to optimize equipment, supply chain bottlenecks) many thought this was going to perform. Now post the 85% discount many have the opposite view.
Read 4 tweets
Cycle Bottom Profile picture
Aug 17
For our followers, if you haven't yet seen how easy it is to make returns in the market (over the medium term), then it's very simple, at times of "apocalyptically bearish" conditions it's generally an entry point....whereas at times of "excess FOMO" its generally an exit point.
Where are we now? No man's land, which means most entry points are average, not compelling Vs June, with the depths of recession still an unknown, we are leaning on taking capital off the table, hence adding to dry powder.
Controlling your own greed and fear are the tools to make the right decisions.

Underpaying, early cycle leads to high returns

Overpaying, late cycle leads to losses

Awaiting for clarification leads to mediocrity

Early cycle vision leads to superior results

#investing101
Read 5 tweets
Cycle Bottom Profile picture
Aug 15
$AHQ 3x returns over 12 months from recent lows, 6x assuming lower stupid dilution. The key is to evaluation opportunities in the eye of the storm....4 potential mines with combined NPV of $2bn and 1bn/t of resource, low capex start ups.

#coal
We will ride $CKA through 40c, if $AHQ continues to trade below 11.5c then a sector switch will look attractive.
Evaluating an investment in the eye of the storm: $AHQ

A) will the assets perform to specs within 24 months? Yes

B) how bad will the dilution be, will the valuation still be discounted materially post dilution? Yes

C) will non dilutive forms of financing be available? Yes

1/2
Read 4 tweets
Cycle Bottom Profile picture
Aug 15
Every time there is a new #uranium PFS or DFS come out we compare across the spectrum of projects looking for the best value at the lowest EV. Its still hard to beat 48mlbs recoverable, sub $30 AISC, 4-5mlb annual capacity trading on an EV < US$70m. Overpaying will reduce returns
ISR capex doesn't look so great when treated from a holistic approach
Rules of thumb for returns #uranium

<US$100m cap with NPV $0.6-1bn (AISC < $35)= 5-25x returns

$200-400m cap with NPV $0.6-1bn= 1-4x returns

Bonus tailwinds for the <$100m caps
- ETF entry
- low broker exposure to moderate
- no research to moderate
- low fintwit to high
Read 5 tweets
Cycle Bottom Profile picture
Aug 15
Investing at cycle lows proves it's weight in gold....
Characteristics of cycle lows:

a) 90-95% declines from 2 year peaks

b) very attractive low valuations 2 years out, post moving beyond the eye of the storm

c) extremely negative sentiment with much fear

The easy entry points to secure great forward returns.

#investing101
Investing Behaviour that will truly generate sub standard returns over the medium :

A) FOMO resulting in 4th quartile cycle purchases

B) No understanding of cycle positioning

C) Entry without Exit pricing

D) Moving with the herd, instead of being infront of the herd
Read 4 tweets
Cycle Bottom Profile picture
Jul 30
#uranium potential acquisition target list over the next 12-24 months:

African targets: $EL8 $FSY $AEE

US targets: $WSTRF $AEC

Mixed jurisdiction target: $LAM

Acquirers: Chinese players, $EU $DNN $UEC $DYL
The #uranium acquisition matrix, accretive equations

At $40-65 spot:

Acquirers trading > $4+/lb and/or peak CF to EV >3x

Acquirees pricing <$3lb and/or peak CF to EV <2x

Peak cycle valuation ranges $5-13/lb and/or peak CF to EV 7-11x = targets add 3-5x upside initial price
The buy Vs build decision #uranium

Caps above $400m generally will be the acquirers of the sub $300m targets sitting on low relative valuation in the $40-65 spot phase of the cycle.

Acquirers buying a <$2lb valuation with superior project matrix when they are trading >$5 =
Read 10 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(