🚨Two days after announcing it would cancel large amounts of student debt, the @WhiteHouse has failed to produce either a cost estimate or a proposal for how it would be paid for. We've estimated the cost of the full plan to be ~$500 billion.
"This certainly could be one of the most expensive executive actions in history, and yet the White House can’t tell us what it will cost. Either the White House doesn’t know the cost of their debt cancellation proposal, or they know and won’t share it with the public..."
"...it is hard to say which is worse.
While the Administration says it can’t fully estimate the cost, it has no problem estimating how many borrowers would benefit, who they are, or how the plan will affect inflation. Even as it can’t tell us what the plan costs,..."
"...the White House and its allies are relying on word games and budget tricks to mislead the public about the inflationary and budgetary consequences.
Yesterday the White House suggested the plan would be fully paid for in part by restarting existing loan payments."
"That claim defies logic, as payments were supposed to restart next week.
No one, not even the President’s own budget, assumed we would extend the temporary emergency pause for the next decade." crfb.org/press-releases…
"The last two Administrations and Congresses have already spent roughly $300 billion to pause repayments for 29 months and enact a variety of other changes to the student loan system - further actions add to those costs, they don’t subtract from them."
"The White House Press Secretary also stated that one part of the plan might reduce government cash flow by $24 billion per year, but that tells us very little about the overall cost of the plan." crfb.org/press-releases…
"The White House also suggested its plan is fiscally responsible because it should be put in the context of the “historic” deficit reduction it has already achieved as deficits fell between 2021 and 2022..." crfb.org/press-releases…
"...That fall is of course driven mainly by huge deficit increases the Administration enacted in 2021, and to a lesser extent from surging inflation." (See crfb.org/blogs/no-presi…).
"The one truly meaningful action the White House has taken to reduce deficits, the #InflationReductionAct, would see its reduction wiped out twice over by the student debt policies that were just announced." crfb.org/press-releases…
"If the Administration truly has no idea how much this plan costs, they are acting with extreme reckless abandon. At worst, the White House is not being honest with the American people about just how expensive and inflationary this executive action will be."
"Before we charge half a trillion dollars to our children and raise prices on our parents, the American public has a right to know exactly how much this plan will cost."
🚨NEW: @POTUS today announced student loan changes – including cancellation of up to $20k for some borrowers – that will cost $440–$600 billion over the next ten years.
That brings the total cost of pandemic-era student loan actions to ~$800 billion.
Today’s announcement consisted of:
➡️Broad student debt cancellation (cost: ~$𝟯𝟲𝟬 𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻); ➡️Changes to income-driven repayment plans (cost: ~$𝟭𝟮𝟬 𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻);
➡️Final student loan repayments extension (cost: ~$𝟮𝟬 𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻)
Read more on each in our blog.
💰We estimate that cancellation will eliminate $550 billion of federal student loan debt.
📈However, we project that the overall amount of outstanding federal student loan debt will return to $1.6 trillion (its current level) within 𝗳𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀.
🚨Today @POTUS announced his plan to cancel $10k/borrower of student debt by executive action for individuals making <$125k and up to $20k for Pell Grant recipients while extending the current repayment pause until December 31st.
"This announcement is gallingly reckless – with the national debt approaching record levels and inflation surging, it will make both worse. Policymakers have already spent $300 billion on student debt relief—none of it paid for, and this would add another $400 to $600 billion..."
"...again, none of it paid for. This action by the White House is completely at odds with their talk of deficit reduction. It could add twice as much to the deficit as was just saved from the #InflationReductionAct, completely eliminating any deficit reduction and then some."
🚨NEW ANALYSIS🚨 The #Medicare Trustees' report shows that the Part A HI trust fund is only 6 years from insolvency, facing a large shortfall with rapidly-growing spending. The outlook is slightly improved, but substantial structural imbalances remain.
1️⃣ The HI trust fund is only 𝟲 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀 from insolvency.
The Trustees project the trust fund will be insolvent by 2028, just six years from now but two years later than projected last year. At that point, provider + insurer payments would have to be cut by 10% (20% by 2046).
2️⃣ Total #Medicare spending will grow significantly.
All parts of Medicare will grow rapidly in the coming decade. Gross Medicare spending will ⬆️ from 3.9% of GDP in 2022 to 5.4% in 2032 and 6.2% in 2045. This rise is driven partially by the rising cost of #MedicareAdvantage.
🚨NEW ANALYSIS🚨 The latest #SocialSecurity projections show that the program is only 13 years from insolvency and faces large & rising imbalances. Though finances have improved slightly, they remain perilous, and time is running out to save the program.
The theoretical combined trust funds comprising #SocialSecurity (OASI+SSDI) will exhaust their reserves by 2035, when today's 54-year-olds reach full retirement age and today's youngest retirees turn 75. ⤵️
The Trustees project the program will run cash deficits of nearly $2.5 trillion over the next decade – the equivalent of 2.1% taxable payroll or 0.8% of GDP. 75-year actuarial imbalance totals 3.4% of payroll or 1.2% of GDP.
🚨NEW🚨 Today's trustees reports show that the #SocialSecurity and #Medicare Hospital Insurance (HI) #trustfunds are rapidly approaching insolvency; these funding imbalances will require #TrustFundSolutions to prevent broad benefit cuts.
➡️OASI depletion will occur by 2034, while SSDI will not deplete within the projection window.
On a theoretical combined basis, assuming revenue is allocated between the trust funds in the years between OASI and SSDI insolvency, #SocialSecurity will become insolvent by 2035. ⤵️
➡️Upon insolvency, all beneficiaries will face a 20% across-the-board benefit cut, which will grow to 26% by 2096. The Trustees estimate a 75-year actuarial shortfall of 3.42% of taxable payroll for #SocialSecurity – lower than 2021's estimate, but higher than any prior year.