Thread by @JBelcourt73

So what a present to wake up to. @DefenceU gave #NAFO a shout out.

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1563851548643426304?s=20&t=ncftYyrHsoSaZvhOAPSaMw

The @georgian_legion gave #Fellas a shout out

https://twitter.com/georgian_legion/status/1563606157775646721?s=20&t=ncftYyrHsoSaZvhOAPSaMw

and #WeAreNAFO now has a prime-time anchor for our media ops with the arrival of @JRewinski because expansion is non-negotiable. All kidding aside, it really is something profound when private citizens all

over the world now have the ability to affect the battlefield via private donations of money, goods and services and individual acts to counter dis-info and propaganda online are successful enough to gain the recognition of a nation fighting for its survival.

This what I mean by comity. Its something Russia and her supporters do not have. They are motivated by hate. Instead of music videos like

https://twitter.com/gnucontrol/status/1562506864356560897?s=20&t=ncftYyrHsoSaZvhOAPSaMw

Russia and her supporters put out war crimes concerts like this. This video is more than just braggadocio...

https://twitter.com/den_kazansky/status/1563753741697916928?s=20&t=ncftYyrHsoSaZvhOAPSaMw

The skull video is a message to every family that lost someone in Mariupol and Azovstal. You will never have anyone to bury. It is a terror video, but its also one aimed at Russian families who have lost sons. It is a promise of vengeance that ignores why their sons were killed

in the first place. Its typically Russian in that it advances a victim narrative while also claiming strength and saying the quiet parts about morally bankruptcy out loud. In equally somber news, there is now some videos going around of a new gucci kitted 3rd army corps

What is this formation intended for? How much of its kit is really gucci (well the Russian knock off Rucci anyways), how long has it been training, what is its human stock etc...

https://twitter.com/tom_bullock_/status/1563469549852172288?s=20&t=ncftYyrHsoSaZvhOAPSaMw

3 major options exist. Oh BTW thanks Germany, its apparently training on a range Germany built. So option 1 is as an Imperial Guard. Option 2 is Spring Offnesive and Option 3 is immediate counter-attack (fall winter). Note that it can be intended for any one of them but end up

being used in another one of the options. Defensive employment is almost assuredly not an option unless things go really pear shaped for the Russians So lets dig into the options. 1. Imperial Guard. Russia has taken massive losses among the troops that would normally serve the

function of the guardians of the regime. Those troops who are left are mainly light infantry forces and they could end up facing Russian troops who are disillusioned, have seen combat and have access to heavy weapons. Building up a heavy corps and keeping them near Moscow would

the regime with some firepower heavy stability. There is a reason the Romans had praetorians, the Czar had Imperial Cossack units, Saddam had Republican Guards and Iran has IRGC units. I think option 1 is the main focus of the unit for now. However, if Russia can find the time

I think Putin's desire to achieve victory and his belief that Western support is not durable will put a lot of pressure on the army to use it as the shwerpunkt in the spring. As I have stated previously the T-90A and M appears to be the one thing Russia got right if they have

been used in combat in numbers as losses rates for both are low. A massed tank attack along the lines of Bagration rather than this WWI style artillery battle we have been seeing would pose some real problems for Ukraine if it managed a serious penetration. Could it change the

course of the war? Probably not, but it could set back Ukrainian gains significantly. Luckily Ukrainian intelligence is likely to pick up its transfer west and where it arrives. The Russian Army seems to have lost its ability to conduct truly successful maskirovka efforts. Still

such a force actually used in a competent manner would add a whole new level of intensity and demands that Western support remain solid. Its why i write @JohnBoozman, @SenTomCotton and @RepFrenchHill every single day. However the formation may not be allowed to sit and safeguard

Kleptograd until it is used to punch Ukraine in the Spring. With Russian efforts effectively dead in the water and Ukraine regaining territory and imposing virtual sieges the unit may be thrown in before its ready. Either to counterattack and try to regain the initiative and

narrative or piecemeal to plug holes. Obviously, I prefer piecemeal before they are ready. That type of half-baked status quo employment makes them much easier to deal with and easy to deal with means fewer Ukrainians whose voices I never get to hear.

Switching back to #NAFO and a bit of humor and a warning. Last night I tried to unofficially codify the #NAFOarticles. While there seems to be general agreement with my take, I forgot #article69 aka Horny Jail, thirst traps and too much bonking. If you know you know.

I did this in part because some #fakefellas tried to run a scam space seeking to divert donations from the @georgian_legion too more "approved" ones... Somehow I don't think @MriyaAid would make their list since @MriyaAid aid only cares about Ukraine and makes sure 100% of donor

funds go towards Ukraine's eventual victory. So if you like twitter spaces beware. I recommend @MriyaReport as the best ongoing conversation on Ukraine anywhere. It has experts, Ukrainian voices, moral clarity and comity. It is where I spend 99% of the time I have for spaces.

Every now and then i will drop into a #NFAOspace if I see it is hosted by a fella I trust. Just be careful bad actors want your money so stick to trusted sources and spaces. Every dollar/euro stolen or diverted does not help Ukraine win.

Until our Crimean Beach party Slava Ukraini and remember we must stop the #GenocideOfUkrainians because Ukraine is Western and #russiaisateroriststate @mfa_russia <--- losing so bad in service to #Pedoputin that now you need to build an army to fight fellow Russians.