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Aug 28 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
Pakistan.

This is a very bad year for #pakistan.

There are about 220M people in pakistan - compared to USA population of 330M.

Most of pakistan is now under water.

🧵👇
Pakistan is #2 on the most indebted countries
They are just drowning in debt. Notice the dates.
Now they are literally just drowning.
Pakistan is a huge recipient of BRI funds for infrastructure.
Note that these are USD based loans. Meaning pakistan must pay back the loan in USD. USD right now is super strong, meaning pakistan currency is very weak in comparison.
khaama.com/pakistan-debt-…
In addition to all this, the previous PM was summoned to court over terrorist comments.

In addition to everything else, pakistan is politically unstable.

washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/…
Instability is unrelenting
Here is Khan is playing the Donald Trumpisq rallying his supporters to protest in event he is arrested
An unstable pakistan is very bad for the region.

And pakistan is a nuclear armed country.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistan_…
A reminder, pakistan was harboring Osama bin laden
And about that raid - this is fascinating

USA is a lawyers paradise; legalized raid on a foreign country without a declaration of war.

Crazy how that works.

This sets a prescient that they can do this against any target in any country.

#SlipperySlope

nytimes.com/2015/10/29/us/…

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More from @frankoz95967943

Expound the profound Profile picture
Aug 28
I am having a hard time keeping up - sorry for all these threads folks.

#Japan

The world is changing so fast...
🧵👇
reuters.com/article/us-jap…
After WW2 US dropped two massive bombs on Japan, McCarthur helped write Japan's pacifist constitution, as part of its terms for surrender

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitut…
Abe was a strong proponent to change the constitution - namely because China had become more and more aggressive in the region.

Read 26 tweets
Expound the profound Profile picture
Aug 28
It is highly unusual for canadian dollar not to track oil
here is UUP vs oil
uup is the dollar; pink is oil and its inverted.

the fed is attempting to use USD strength to attack oil

Usually it works.

UUP has never been this high before.
And why is UUP so high?
Because japan sacrificed their currency to prop up the USD
USDJPY is a currency pair - if japanese yen gets weaker, USD gets stronger.
Read 8 tweets
Expound the profound Profile picture
Aug 26
uvix digging a little deeper....

canada's currency and bonds move with the price of oil
when oil price gets high their currency gets stronger. to counteract that, canada will lower interest rates (canada is an export nation - they dont want a strong currency)
🧵👇
on prior chart when red line goes up, the currency is getting weaker - notice the yellow line - thats their 30y bond. the gov can influence that bond actively (selling more or selling none) or just buying their own dogfood (qe)
Here i've added the purple line us30y bond
On the far left, it didnt follow the yellow line at all.
that changed in 2020
Read 15 tweets
Expound the profound Profile picture
Aug 26
I think we are in a massive swap state w/ interest rates.
I will dig into this over the weekend.

Here is the calculated vix - notice june 13th Image
Ive moved the calculated vix down
it lines up with the vix again Image
And one more time Image
Read 4 tweets
Expound the profound Profile picture
Aug 26
A while back i modeled the vix - the formula worked very well.

As of june 13,2022 the model no longer works...

Its almost like vol is being...suppressed...
Image
Adding in UVIX and SVIX - 2 new products resurrected from the grave, with obvious impacts to the vix... Image
And now adding crude oil
somehow this instrument crushes oil as well. Image
Read 5 tweets
Expound the profound Profile picture
Aug 22
I want to talk about this - very important.
🧵👇
Remember when i said UVIX was created in march 2022?

Someone - likely a big hedge (for the pow) or japan - someone big is gaming the vix.


I firmly believe this is being done to whack futures pricing - it hits stonk futures, but also OIL futures.
Sauds have now said enuf.

Hold on your popcorn boys and girls. If Saudis decide to cut production, its 1979 all over again.

Read 15 tweets

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