ππ½ Disney bid value: US$3.04B (approx Rs 24,000 cr).
ππ½ Second highest bid: Sony at US$1.35b (approx Rs 10,000 cr).
ππ½ Bid was for the India sub continent markets, 95% of which revolves around consumption in India alone.
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ππ½ A general ICC assumption is, the Indian subcontinent alone generates close to 70% of their broadcast revenues.
ππ½ So does that mean Disney's winning bid of US$3.04b is potentially just around 70% of what ICC will make from sale of rights in other territories?
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ππ½ Not really. Why? Because the delta between the winning bid and the second highest one is extremely huge and the narrative is highly skewed in favour of Disney massively overpaying for it already.
ππ½ Let's stick to Indian subcontinent. US$3.04b for how many matches? 179.
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ππ½ Disney's bid is for four ICC events -- 2024 T20 WC, 2025 Champions Trophy, 2026 T20 World Cup, 2027 50-over World Cup -- which will collectively see all 179 matches.
ππ½ How many India matches?
9 in 50-over WC; 7 each in two T20 WCs; 3 in Champions Trophy. Total: 26 games.
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ππ½ So $3.04B (Rs 24,000 cr) for 179 matches straight away works out to Rs 135 cr per match.
ππ½ Do you see a broadcaster paying this kind of money for a non-India game? The figure of 135 cr is already as pricy as it gets.
ππ½ But let's break this down with India perspective.
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ππ½ In the 4 ICC events, there are 8 semifinals & 4 finals.
ππ½ So, a total of 26 India games, 8 SFs & 4 finals make 38 marquee India clashes & big knockouts.
ππ½ Now, remove 38 from the list of 179 matches and how many remain? 141.
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ππ½ These 141 matches are between all other countries that will play in these four ICC events, outside of India games & knockout clashes.
ππ½ Now let's assume Disney has committed to pay approx US$13m (Rs 104 cr) per game for the set of 141 matches.
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ππ½ Now, I'm using US$13m (Rs 104 cr) as the value here simply because I have no other benchmark to pick. $13m is per match value in IPL.
ππ½ So, just for the sake of mathematical simplification, if that is the value (13m) Disney committed to pay for the set of 141 matches...
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ππ½ Then you can divide the rest of the amount to further assume what they're paying for the 38-match cluster.
ππ½ That works out to around Rs 250 cr per game.
ππ½ Remember, these are not actuals. Just figures I'm using to explain. The only actual is US$3.04b that Disney bid.
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ππ½ Is that the kind of investment that can be retained from TV & digital broadcast in the India market? Well, let's take Disney's previous (existing) rights cycle as example to find out.
ππ½ Disney (Star India back then) had paid US$1.9B in 2015 to buy ICC rights for 8 years.
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ππ½ That cycle included 2 50-over World Cups, 3 T20 World Cups; 1 Champions Trophy.
ππ½ Of these 6 events, 3 were scheduled in India (extremely imp point).
ππ½ Of all these events, 50% of Disney's payment structure revolved around last 2 events in India.
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ππ½ In the upcoming cycle, one T20 WC is in USA & Caribbean (not India friendly time zone), the Champions Trophy is in Pakistan (doubtful until things get there), one T20 WC is in India (tax issues unresolved yet) & one 50-over WC in South Africa.
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ππ½ How exactly does Disney plan to retain this investment, I have no idea. But remember, there's another narrative doing the rounds too.
ππ½ That Disney has stakes in all marquee cricket business (part-IPL, Full ICC) probably makes for a great headline in America maybe?
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ππ½ From a shareholder POV, this kind of capital infusion is bound to raise questions nevertheless.
ππ½ So, I'm still waiting to hear Disney's indepth version to this whole bid mystery.
ππ½ Some more perspective: ICC itself set the 4-year benchmark price at US$1.4b.
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ππ½ They set the 8-year benchmark price at US$4b.
ππ½ ICC said 1st round of bidding will be "closed". If they don't get a bid based on their projections, they'll call for another round -- e-auction.
ππ½ It's clear all bidders -- barring Disney -- wanted an e-auction.
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ππ½ That's why all other bidders put bids slightly lower than 4-year benchmark.
ππ½ One narrative says Disney outsmarted them all. But fact is they'd have outsmarted even if they paid US$1.5b.
ππ½ But they paid double!!
ππ½ I'll do another thread when they let me know why. : )
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Subject: T20 Leagues.
Countries involved: South Africa & UAE.
Nature of conflict: Fight for window & players.
Affected parties: Cricket boards around the world.
Solution: Not found yet.
Let's deep dive...
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Cricket South Africa & Emirates Cricket Board, both have their own T20 Leagues coming up next year.
Both want the leagues to be played between Jan & early Feb.
Both are in a rush to sign players.
Catch? Same set of players can't play in both leagues.
Why? Dates clash.
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Why can't they play in separate windows?
-- Annual calendar is packed.
-- Weather needs to be kept in mind.
-- IPL takes away 3 months annually.
-- ICC has a world event every year.
-- Cricket boards have bilateral commitments.
After the recent #IPLMediaRights auction, the value of a single game touched US$15.1m (US$6.2b for a total of 410 games). That's Rs 118 cr per game (total of Rs 44,390 cr for 410.)
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In doing so, the per-match value in IPL crossed the per-match value of the English Premier League (EPL). That bit is right. EPL per-match value at present exchange stands at US$11m.
At 380 games, that's a total of US$12b for a three-year rights cycle.
But fair enough.
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However, the comparisons with NFL (at US$17m per game) are not correct. There are some calculation errors on the chart.
We have been making an enormous mistake in determining the value of the NFL rights from a per-match perspective.
The money that's come in from sale of #IPLMediaRights and the sponsorships that'll come in over the next five years promise to take the overall central revenue pool of the Indian Premier League just beyond Rs 54,000 crore approx.
Just a broad figure.
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In the previous rights cycle -- that same value was around Rs 21,000 cr.
Around 24% of this figure (we'll take Rs 90 cr per season as avg) was set aside as player-purse / season.
That's approx 4500 cr for 5 yrs across 10 teams (Rs 450 cr / team).
Money reserved for players.
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Now if the same percentage value has to be applied to the new commercias that are in place, then 24% of Rs 54,000 crore would mean an approximate Rs 12,500 cr.
(Although I believe that 24% should also go up). Anyway...
These are just broad back-of-the envelope figures.