After I demonstrated why @ChrisGiles_ of the @FT was wrong when he tweeted a misleading chart with the tag line I hear #Brexit is going swimmingly” he doubled down with another tweet tagged “#I still hear Brexit is going swimmingly”....
....& directed people to a recent FT article for a serious piece of analysis on the failings of Brexit.
on.ft.com/3OvEXSD
Below is my rebuttal to this article. Taking each @FT claim and explaining where & why it is either wrong, taken out of context or deliberately misleading.

thecritic.co.uk/lunching-on-th…
Where the @FT failed to put the fall in the pound into context (kudos @adrianmschmidt for the chart)
Where the @FT was wrong to say the fall in the pound post the 2016 referendum didn’t boost UK exports.
Where the @FT, whilst correct to say that UK inflation had been higher than the EU, failed to explain that this had been the case since the Great Financial Crash in 2008 and NOT a result of Brexit.
Where the @FT failed to put higher UK inflation into context – both that it had been running at the same rate as the G7 AND that it was still below the Central Bank target at a time when their aim was to create higher inflation.
Where the @FT was wrong to say Brexit has led to higher food inflation in UK (EU food inflation has been more than 5x higher & G7 4x higher) and failed to put UK food inflation into context (UK food prices are already amongst the lowest in Europe as are the current price rises).
Where the @FT selectively presented UK business investment data to imply a Brexit effect on the long term trend rate AND failed to put the figures into context versus EU peers.
Where the @FT was wrong to say UK exports to the EU have not grown since the end of the Brexit transition period.
And although right to say UK export & import growth since end of transition period has been lower than EU peers are wrong to say this has negatively impacted GDP & long term GDP forecasts (e.g. IMF predicts UK to be fastest growing G7 economy in period 2021-2023 AND 2024-2027).
The FT describes themselves as unbiased purveyors of the truth in a fake news world.

Please read the article and then answer the question I asked in my previous one.

Does that sound like the FT to you?

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More from @DerrickBerthel1

Aug 16
I know this is going to look like I have vendetta against @FT, but I just wanted to show - again - how you can present data to drive an agenda. For example this. A chart showing the pound has fallen against the euro & dollar since brexit referendum:

Pretty clear. The pound has fallen since that point.

Or we can go back 14 years and see that over that time frame it is the strength of the pound during 2014-2016 that is the aberration with the pound now trading in line with the period 2008-2013.
So the post referendum fall wasn't a major change after all?

Or we could go back all the way to the beginning of the euro to see that it was 2008 and the GFC that led to a crash in the pound vs the euro.
Read 4 tweets
Aug 15
Since I published my thread questioning @chrisgiles_ (economic editor at the @FT) claim that the UK's declining trade balance was a result of brexit rather than oil &gas prices/imports (see below) ...

I have received some pushback claiming I am misrepresenting & cherry picking data (physician heal thyself). For example this below

As a result I thought it worthwhile to try to put these figures into context. Below is a chart comparing the growth rate of goods exports from the UK, Germany, Eurozone & USA since 2008. Source: fred.stlouisfed.org/series/XTEXVA0…
Read 21 tweets
Aug 12
This morning @ChrisGiles_ of the @FT sent out this tweet on the UK's deteriorating trade balance suggesting that this was a result of Brexit (apologies for the screenshot but I cannot link to the original tweet because he immediately blocked me after the following reply) Image
I replied with the following chart demonstrating that this is a Europe wide issue and a result of the rise in the price of oil and gas imports and asking him why as Economics Editor of the @FT for 14 years he either didn't know this or was he purposely misrepresenting the facts? Image
Below I show the a chart comparing the UK and EU net trade performance over the past decade. As you can see the trend is exactly the same (although the EU started from a position of surplus) demonstrating that this is a function of oil and gas prices/imports and not Brexit. Image
Read 13 tweets
May 16
With the UK seemingly intent on taking unilateral action to ensure largely unfettered trade between GB & NI, voices have again been raised suggesting that such action would necessitate a hard border on the island of Ireland in order to protect the EU SM.
The UK is being accused (again) of magical thinking, believing in Unicorns and that unfettered trade is impossible without the whole UK fully & permanently aligning with EU rules & regulations.
However, is this true? Is it possible for GB/NI trade to operate largely unfettered without threatening SM? Well to answer this question I shall refer to the oral evidence provided to the Irish Parliament (Dail) by the Head of Ireland Revenue (Customs) Niall Cody on 25th May 2017
Read 45 tweets
Dec 2, 2021
@Danjsalt Yes that is indeed the case. It is also the case that this is how they do the bulk of customs today. Indeed it is the future of customs globally. See Article 2.53

gov.uk/government/col…
@Danjsalt Electronic documents & pre notification are now becoming mandatory in the Netherlands via Portbase (their digital logistics platform)
portofrotterdam.com/en/services/po…
@Danjsalt This is the portbase website which explains how the system works
portbase.com/en/

portbase.com/en/port-commun…
Read 14 tweets
Nov 13, 2021
The UK Government has said that if the EU does not agree changes to the NIP in line with the Command Paper published in July, it will trigger Article 16. I do not expect the EU to agree any substantial reform.

A quick thread on when and why I would trigger it. /1
The DUP has stated that unless the EU agree reforms to the NIP it will pull out of the NI Executive essentially pulling down Stormont with a November 2021 deadline. I expect the DUP to act at the end of November. 2/

msn.com/en-gb/news/ukn…
The UK Government should then trigger article 16 (beginning of December) being able to declare that the bar for Article 16 has been reached both through trade diversion AND, following the collapse of Stormont, also societal disruption that is likely to persist. 3/
Read 11 tweets

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